[ official ] 2016 summer moves

And I still think Horford will be priority #1 and I don't understand why people are so sure that he's going to go back to Atlanta. I realize he likes the city and all that cute stuff, but at his age he's going to want to win a ring too, and Atlanta is no longer in that discussion imo. With Horford in Portland, watch out. Not saying he's coming to Portland, but I would not be surprised whatsoever if he left Atlanta.

 

If you like to see what is possible, some guy over at BE has posted an interactive salary cap calculator. http://codepen.io/wayneculverhall/full/mErvbV/

 

The Warriors are said to be going after Nowitzki hard to get him to leave Dallas. I guess they are giving up on the Durant pipe-dream.

 

From my understanding, Durant is 1st on their priority list and Dirk would be a fall-back option if KD stayed in OKC.

 

That seems like an odd fit. Durant makes a LOT more sense for them. Where would they play him? Draymond is their PF and Dirk would be horrible defensively at center. Would they let Harrison Barnes walk and move Draymnd to SF? I'd personally love to have Dirk for about 24 - 26 MPG as instant offense off the bench and as an added go to scorer late in the game (when doing alternating offensive/defensive substitutions), but I think he'd want a bigger roll.

BNM

 

Keep an eye on June 30th.

It's the deadline to extend qualifying offers to AC, Leonard, and Mo if we want to make them restricted free agents. Extending it to AC is a no brainer with his miniscule caphold. Meyers and Moe.... these will be more of the question marks.

 

I think Harkless is a no-brainer as well. Leonard probably gets offered as the QO is less than the contract offer last summer. That he won't be available till December might limit his suitors offering big money.

 

I think all three are locks. We aren't in a position where we can give up assets without receiving something in return.

 

Keep in mind that the Qualifying Offers are significantly lower than their CAP Holds for Leonard and Harkless.

Meyers Leonard:
- Qualifying Offer: $4.2M
- CAP Hold: $7.7M

Maurice Harkless:
- Qualifying Offer: $4.0M
- CAP Hold: $7.2M

Allan Crabbe:
- Qualifying Offer: $2.7M
- CAP Hold: $2.7M

There's very little risk offering them the QO. They're probably going to be making more than that on the open market. If we need the space to sign a big time free agent, we can simply renounce their rights.

 

Harkless is probably the first free agent we sign (even over a big name stud) simply to lower his cap hold. If we can get him for 6.2 MIL a year for example then we do it right away. Not saying he would necessarily accept that but I think it is possible. And then we gain a MIL. Doesn't seem like much but every bit helps.

 

That'll be a steal if we can get him for less than his hold!

 

I like the guy a lot. I don't see the huge offers coming his way though even in this exploding cap. He was very up and down and I don't think teams have them that high on their wish list. All the better for us.

 

No way Nowitzki leaves Dallas now. He's been there forever, won the ring there, I really cannot see him at any other team even if it's certain he will not win at Dallas again.

 

He will get better offers in the league but if it was marginal difference (less than $1M) he would probably stay.

 

Why? What has he done this season? I understand he did well the last 15 games or so. But why would he be more expensive than that?

 

Because this is the most teams in "buy mode" we've ever seen in the free agency era (as far as I recall). Too many dollars chasing too little talent is going to lead to massive inflation in salaries for guys who probably don't deserve it. GMs are going to get desperate to spend their use-it-or-lose-it cap space.

 

Except it's not use it or lose it. The cap is going up again next year and a lot of teams can actually preserve more cap space for the better FA class next year.

Portland can't, with all its RFAs, but a lot of teams can.

 

Certainly some will be able to preserve their space, but imagine the pressure these front offices face from ownership and their fans to make their team more competitive now! How many clubs have the luxury (or the stones and wisdom) to keep themselves out of the scrum? A handful maybe. That's still a lot of teams in buy-now mode.