C.J to Bismack Biyombo : You would look good in Black and Red

I get the feeling all of our notions about what a contract is worth is about to get turned inside out this summer. Is 15 million a reasonable sum for Biyombo? Not in a sane universe, but when it's all said and done that might look like a steal next to some of the stupid money guys like Crabbe and other middling players are going to get. At least with Biyombo you know you're getting an above average player for your investment.

 

yeah 15 mil is not too much anymore. I would pay him that for sure. He is a talented UFA, you have to over pay a little if you want to get these guys.

 

Yeah, I'd really like someone to look at Percent of cap. If 15 mil is x % of next year's cap, what is x % of 2 year's ago cap?

 

Biyombo was the beneficiary of a series of extremely fortunate events. Everyone noticed his huge performances in the playoffs, but seemed to overlook that he also had many more games where he was a non-factor and most of his big games came against a MIA team whose biggest starter was Luol Deng, a career SF, and whose most physical inside presence was Josh McRoberts. He had a couple huge games, on national TV, against a severely depleted roster right before his pending free agency.

His "breakout" post season wasn't really.

In 20 post season games, he had 3 double-doubles (2 against MIA and 1 against IND).

In 20 post season games, he was twice as likely to score 5 or fewer points than 10 or more. He scored in double digits in 5 games, 3 against MIA and one each against IND and CLE. Those 5 games were 10, 13, 10, 17 and 12. He also had 10 games of 5, or fewer points. Those games were 5, 2, 3, 0, 0, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4.

He only blocked more than 2 shots three times in 20 games. He had 1, or fewer BLKs in 12 games, including 6 games with 0 BLKs.

If people hated Batum for his inconsistency, they will grow to hate Biyombo, too.

Overall, his "breakout" post season averages were 6.4 ppg. 9.4 rpg and 1.4 bpg - and again, he had most of his big game against a severely depleted MIA team.

For comparison, here's Mason Plumlee's playoff averages: 7.0 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 1.0 bpg. Plumlee also averaged 4.8 apg (Biyombo averaged 0.4 apg) and did it against DeAndre Jprdan and Andrew Bogut, two centers who are MUCH bigger and better defenders than anyone Biyombo faced in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

And, Plumlee will make $2.3 million next season. Anyone still think Biyombo is worth a contract starting at $15 = $20 million per year? I'd love to have Biyombo as a defensive big man off the bench, but not at those prices.

Biyombo is a very good role player, but not starter quality for a contending team. Anyone who pays him $15 - $20 million a year expecting to plug him in as a full time starter will soon regret that decision.

BNM

 

CJ is such a great ambassador for this team. Great to see him out there interacting with top free agents and planting seeds like this.

 

This all started with Chandler Parsons getting overpaid, then Wes Mathews getting overpaid...I blame Cuban!

 

if things keep going with that trend, he is going to try for howard and miss out, then offer biz some giant contract but still save money compared to the howard money and will think he got a deal

 

Those contracts are perfectly in-line with how most of free agency goes. If you want guys to come play for you, then you are almost always paying a premium for somebody that another team was willing to let go. The FA market is about middling to slightly above average players getting paid like superstars.

 

Unfortunately, that Biz does not exist. He's never averaged close to those numbers in any of his 5 NBA seasons. His career bests in each of those categories are: 5.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg and 1.8 bpg. As I just posted, his "breakout" numbers for this post season, doing most of his damage against a severely depleted MIA team, were: 6.4 ppg, 9.4 rpg and 1.6 bpg.

Because of his lack of an offensive game, he will never be a big time starter or play starter minutes. He is a good role player and would be great coming off our bench, but not at the price he's likely to fetch.

I know the cap is going up a lot, and some players will end up being bargains. Biyombo is not one of those players. Out of all the current free agents, he is, in my opinion, the one most likely to end up overpaid. He will be paid starter money, but will never be a quality starter. His game is just too limited.

The sad thing is, I like Biyombo. I understand his limitations and would still like to have him on our bench. He's just in a unique position to be severely overpaid and I think the money he's going to command will be better spent elsewhere. Neil Olshey has shown he's great at getting guys who outperform their contracts - guys like Ed Davis, Aminu and Plumlee. I just can't see him overpaying for a role player like Biyombo.

BNM

 

and once Ed puts on that 15lbs we wont have a need for biz

 

It doesn't have to be. The two free agents Neil Olshey signed last summer, Ed Davis and Al-Farouq Aminu, were considered middling players. Neither got paid close to superstar money. In fact, the two of them together cost POR $20 million less ($50 million total) than Wes cost DAL ($70 million). And, they BOTH outplayed Wes. Ironically, one of those was a guy we poached from DAL. Cuban had a bargain right under his nose and didn't see it.

Caveat emptor.

BNM

 

I was looking at his PER 36 #s.

 

The plan is Bismack Biyombo and Al Horford. That's the master plan that's up Neil's sleeve.

 

Thanks, this puts things into context, perfectly!
15 M this upcoming year = 10 M just 2 years previous.

 

unless they both take discounts not a chance

 

That's the problem, the only time he'll ever average 36 MPG is if he's driving a Prius.

Seriously, if you're playing Bismack Biyombo 36 MPG, you're in big trouble. Hell, even with Valanciunas out in the playoffs, he only averaged 25 mpg is his "breakout" post season.

There are legitimate reasons he's only averaged 21 mpg for his 5 year NBA career. Although he's only about to turn 24, he's still VERY raw and only averaged 22 mpg in his 5th year in the league. He's no longer all about untapped potential, At this point he pretty much is who he is. And who he is is a very good role player that can give you a solid 24 mpg off the bench. Who he is not, is a starting player that should be making $20 million per year and playing 36 mpg.

BNM

 

Here are a few player comparisons in relation to the cap % -

$15M is 15.9% of the CAP for next year ($94M). That equates to a salary of $11.2M this (2015-16) year. Players like:
- Jrue Holiday ($11.0M)
- Tyreke Evans ($10.7M)
- Marcin Gortat ($11.2M)
- Kenneth Faried ($11.2M)
- Thaddeous Young ($11.2M)
- Nikola Vucevic ($11.2M)

Biyombo's max is going to be around $21.5M. That equates to a salary of $16.0M this year. Players like:
- James Harden ($15.7M)
- Enes Kanter ($16.4M)
- Jimmy Buttler ($16.4M)
- Kawhi Leonard ($16.4M)
- Klay Thompson ($15.5M)

Essentially, it looks like guys will be paid about $15M next year if they are the 3-5 best players on the team. They'll be paid around $21.5M if they are the 1-3 best players on the team.

Also keep in mind that the cap is expected to go up again next year to around $110M. This will inflate the salaries this summer simply due to the expected additional cap the following year. That will push any of these estimates to the high side.

I wouldn't be surprised if Biyombo gets an offer around $18M/yr. I'd pass. There's better bargains out there. Olshey can find 'em.

 

@Boob-No-More This was his mpg in the playoffs since he started after Val went down: 25, 21, 42, 39, 29, 31, 41, 33, 38, 31.

Averages to 33 mpg since he was insterted to the starting lineup.
Not sure what you're seeing.

As a starter during the season in 22 games, he averaged 29.8 mpg, 7.2 pts, 12.2 rebs, and 2.0 blks.

Pretty damn close to what I mentioned above.

 

There is barely enough money for Al, if he comes then Biyombo becomes impossible. I don't think Horford will join.