Don't match IMO, every year there are guys available that do what he does. You don't ride with potential at that price, call up a 3 point shooting FA wing for beans. I.e. Ray Allen. Not to say Ray Allen would come here, that's just an example of someone who can stand out and shoot the 3, someone who would fit. Those kind of guys get bounced around every year, no reason to put money into a guy like Crabbe who has a limited skill set and who has been on the bench his entire career. Again, I understand potential, but not at 4/75 with the option and trade kicker.
Kevin Martin is old and injury prone but at a cheap cost, I like the idea of getting him. This is a guy who still averaged 20 PPG a couple seasons back when he did play. If he can bounce back then he's a proven shooter. I like the odds of seeing that happen over the odds of Crabbe being worth that contract (or being movable).
Kevin Martin is terrible at this point. He can launch 3s, but he's going to hurt us with all the rest of the things a player should do.
While we are discussing financial stuff, I have a question that might have been answered in another thread, but after the two years on Ezeli's contract; can we go over the cap to sign him again, which might be really difficult, if we can't. I think somebody said No, but I wanted to make sure. The answer to that question might even affect the decision on Crabbe?
So in your MATCHING CRABBE scenario you have Leonard also signing for 45M/4 but rejecting you have him only signing a one year QO of 4M.
I've been adjusting it at various points throughout the day. I could even them out or flip them if you want. I was basically looking at best case/worst case. What do you think is most likely? Edit: OK--for consistency's sake, I now have the 45M/4 option listed for him in both.
After he's been with us 2 years, we'll have early bird rights on him, meaning we'll be able to sign him for as much as 175% of his prior season's contract. So, we could go over the cap to sign him to a deal starting as high as 12.8M in the first year, which would equate to a max of $57M over 4 years.
Hmm....that doesn't sound too appealing. If he does well, he'll be worth way more than the 12.8M and we won't be able to resign him. If he does bad he won't be worth the money at all and it will just be a sunk cost. The contract is pretty much still no risk, but I think that given the fact that there is a TEAM option on year two, I would think that Ezeli had pretty much no bargaining position. We could theoretically have signed him to a two year guarantee with a third year team option in order to secure full bird rights in the scenario that he does well. At 3 years/23 million, it's still a bargain of a deal, even if he ends up being Plumlee's backup and only averages like 60 games a year. It's still an amazing contract no doubt, but I think it also shows that the FO is not too optimistic about Ezeli, despite what they are saying.
For comparison purposes, I would use the same numbers. I see Leonard accepting the one year qualifier regardless. If we match, I am not sure there are any minutes for Harkless. He may take the qualifier too. Hopefully he finds a sign and trade. To clarify on no minutes for Harkless if we match, it is not that I see Crabbe as a three or Harkless as a two. The minutes at the 5 are gone. Davis will probably take some at the 4. Leonard and Aminu will be at the 4. Harkless and Vonleh would be fighting for scraps. Turner, Crabbe, and Aminu would be at the 3. Turner, Crabbe, and CJ at the 2. CJ and Lillard at the 1. Losing Leonard and/or Harkless creates less of a problem than losing Crabbe does.
One of Crabbe/Harkless pretty much has to go, especially at the prices they are going to command. IMO, the Nets made Neil's decision for him. BUT, I suppose I wouldn't be TOO surprised if they matched Crabbe and let Harkless go. What % would people give each scenario of happening? Crabbe Matched/Harkless Gone (15%) Crabbe Matched/Harkless Matched (10%) Crabbe Gone/Harkless Matched (75%)
Honestly haven't looked, kind of checking the forum and posting in little free times at work. I'll take a look later when I can really delve into it. That said, there is no denying those types of players are available often, whether through FA signing or a small trade. I just don't see the point in signing Crabbe to that big of a contract when cheaper, comparable options are available often. And unlike some here, I don't believe that contract would be easily move able at all. I don't need to be a professional, or have a back up plan in mind to have this clear and simplistic view/opinion, that's up to our teams management.
Because the Nets wanted him as a starter. We don't need him as a starter, we just need someone serviceable in our rotation. Two completely different scenarios.
