ESPN:Projecting Dame,CJ and the Blazers......

http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/sto...-profiles-damian-lillard-cj-mccollum-more-nba

I know I'm not supposed to post the whole article here, I used to get in trouble for that.

 

I thought you ran this forum?

 

Yessir, Standby

 

Post all of it except for the last period!

 

On Dame:

Scouting report
+ All-NBA point guard who emerged as premier leader
+ Elite pull-up shooter with ability to get to the basket
+ Small defender whose effort waned last season

Analysis
The departure of LaMarcus Aldridge left Lillard as the face of a younger Blazers team, and his effective leadership helped set the tone for Portland exceeding expectations. That success paid off for Lillard, who was left off the All-Star team but was voted to the All-NBA Second Team. That made Lillard eligible for the so-called "Derrick Rose rule," bumping his five-year extension that begins this year from $127 million to $140 million. Lillard could have made even more but agreed with the Blazers beforehand to cap his salary at 27.5 percent of the cap instead of the maximum possible 30 percent.

Lillard's ability to score in the pick-and-roll and isolations is central to Portland's post-Aldridge offense. He pushed his usage rate to 31.3 percent, the league's eighth-highest mark, while maintaining an identical .560 true shooting percentage. After Stephen Curry, to whom he's often compared, Lillard's 121 unassisted 3-pointers ranked second in the league, per Basketball-Reference.com.

Lillard doesn't shoot quite as well off the dribble, making 33.9 percent of such 3s last year, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, compared with Curry's 43.0 percent. Still, he's enough of a threat from deep beyond the arc to force defenders to play up, giving him room to drive. Lillard declined a bit as a finisher, making 54.6 percent of his attempts within 3 feet after hitting a career-high 64.2 percent in 2014-15, but he got to the free throw line 6.2 times per game and handed out a career-best 6.9 assists per 36 minutes.

The heavy load Lillard carried on offense did take a bit of a toll on his defense, as did not having fewer options to crossmatch while playing alongside C.J. McCollum. So while Lillard battles hard in the post and holds his own in isolations, he tends to struggle getting through picks and creates few steals. ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rated Lillard among the league's bottom five point guards defensively.

On CJ:

Scouting report
+ Translated 2014-15 breakthrough in larger role, winning Most Improved Player
+ Premier secondary ballhandler who proved capable of running the offense at times
+ Better suited to defend point guards; poor defensive rebounder

Analysis
Few Most Improved Player awards have been easier to predict than McCollum winning last year. He'd broken out late in 2014-15, averaging 17.0 points as the short-handed Blazers lost to the Memphis Grizzlies in the playoffs, and was due for more minutes and more shots after the team's offseason makeover. Still, don't underestimate the step forward McCollum took in his development to average 20.8 points and 4.3 assists, production that earned him a four-year, $106 million extension that will take effect in 2017-18.

Offensively, McCollum is an ideal complement for Lillard. He's a threat as a spot-up shooter, ranking ninth in the league with 197 3-pointers and ninth with his 41.7 percent accuracy, but also is capable of initiating the offense while Lillard comes off screens. Portland took advantage of the dual ballhandlers by running pick-and-rolls on both sides of the court after getting the defense to overload and also used McCollum as a backup point guard, a role in which he'd previously struggled. While the offense was less efficient with McCollum using a massive 32.4 percent of the team's plays when Lillard was on the bench, per NBA.com/Stats, the defense was better and the Blazers went 4-2 in the six games Lillard missed but McCollum played.

Therein lies the concern about the Lillard-McCollum combination: Can they defend well enough to advance deep in the playoffs? At 6-foot-3, McCollum has the size of a point guard, so he can't easily trade defensive assignments with the other starting wing. He struggled to contend with off-ball screens and contest Klay Thompson's shots during Portland's playoff loss to the Golden State Warriors, a matchup the Blazers might see again in future postseasons.


On Turner:

Scouting report
+ Volume-scoring wing who needs the ball in his hands
+ Poor outside shooter; not particularly accurate in midrange
+ Above-average defender with size to play either wing spot

Analysis
Two summers after settling for an offer from the Boston Celtics worth $6.7 million over two years, Turner cashed in on the value rehabilitation he did under Brad Stevens. After Chandler Parsons chose the Grizzlies over the Blazers, Portland quickly moved on to offer Turner a lavish four-year, $70 million contract.

At first glance, Turner seems like a curious fit on a team with Lillard and McCollum as lead ballhandlers. Portland wanted more playmaking depth, however, and Turner fits that bill. His role could be compared to how the Warriors use Andre Iguodala at times to initiate the offense, letting both Curry and Thompson come off screens. There are two problems with that plan. Most obviously, when Turner doesn't have the ball in his hands, he's an offensive liability. Turner shot 24.1 percent from 3-point range last year and is a career 30.5 percent shooter, allowing opponents to sag off him.

Less obviously, even in Boston, Turner wasn't a particularly efficient scorer. He's fond of midrange jumpers off the dribble and took 39.3 percent of his shots as 2-pointers outside the paint despite making them at a 39.5 percent clip, per NBA.com/Stats. So even in his most efficient season as a scorer, Turner's .513 true shooting percentage was far worse than league average. His shot creation propped up the Celtics' offense when lead creator Isaiah Thomas was on the bench, but only to an adequate level, and playing the two together hurt Boston's offensive rating.
While Turner's defense isn't necessarily a selling point, he's good enough to serve as a primary stopper when he plays alongside Lillard and McCollum. Turner doesn't have good enough lateral mobility to be an elite defender, but he's disciplined and executes the scouting report, so Stevens was willing to trust him with tough assignments. Turner is a good defensive rebounder from the wing.

 

I learned a few years back that it's not worth paying for insider just to hear them A.) Talk shit about the Blazers OR B.) Say exactly what other outlets are saying OR C.) Rip an article from somewhere like O-Live and pass it off as Insider

 

On Aminu:

Scouting report
+ Combo forward who's most effective as an undersized 4
+ Inconsistent ballhandler who has become accurate 3-point shooter
+ Diligent defender who can hold his own against bigger opponents

Analysis
When Portland signed Aminu to a four-year, $30 million deal in the early hours of 2015 free agency, it seemed like an overpay for a player who'd made the veterans minimum the previous season. A year later, that deal stands as an enormous bargain because of Aminu's success and the growth of the salary cap.

Aminu spent most of 2015-16 as the Blazers' starting small forward, a role in which his development as a shooter was paramount. A career 28.6 percent 3-point shooter entering the season, Aminu made more 3s (126) than he did in his first five seasons combined (109). He shot an above-average 36.1 percent, including 39.2 percent from the corners, per Basketball-Reference.com. For a wing, Aminu's ballhandling is a little shaky at times, but he proved capable of attacking closeouts off the dribble at times. That skill is a plus now that Aminu has slid to starting at power forward, presumably for good.

Though Aminu was perfectly capable as a wing stopper, he's also strong enough at 6-foot-9 to defend 4s, and sliding him down a position helped Portland's offense take off late in the season. According to Nylon Calculus tracking, the Blazers outscored opponents by 4.5 points per 48 minutes with Aminu at power forward as compared with minus-0.2 per 48 at small forward. That translates to a 53-win team, similar to what GM Neil Olshey referenced when discussing the move this summer. Aminu's excellent defensive rebounding chops are key to the success of the small lineups.

On Mase:

Scouting report
+ Skilled center who showed unexpected playmaking ability
+ Above-the-rim finisher who can struggle against shot-blockers
+ Below-average rim protector for a 7-footer; moves well

Analysis
Entering the last season of his rookie contract, Plumlee's in an interesting spot. He started all 82 games for Portland last season and provided them valuable playmaking from the center spot, but the Blazers' postseason run also highlighted Plumlee's shortcomings against elite opposition. With Portland already projected in the luxury tax for 2017-18, will the Blazers shell out for an extension or to re-sign Plumlee as a restricted free agent next summer?

After rarely handling the ball in his first two seasons with the Brooklyn Nets, Plumlee was empowered by Portland head coach Terry Stotts to make plays off the dribble. That proved exceptionally valuable as a release valve when opponents trapped Lillard and McCollum pick-and-rolls, which allowed Plumlee to rack up 26 assists in a three-game span against the L.A. Clippers in the playoffs. Overall, his assist rate increased from 1.5 per 36 minutes to 3.9, the third-largest increase among players who played at least 1,000 minutes both seasons:

On Crabbe:

Scouting report
+ Catch-and-shoot specialist who broke out last season
+ Good but not great 3-point shooter; rarely creates shots
+ Competitive defender who's undersized as small forward

Analysis
McCollum wasn't the only Blazers wing who improved dramatically in 2015-16. After playing just 783 minutes total in his first two seasons, Crabbe nearly tripled that total last year as a sixth man who frequently finished games at small forward. A rare shooter on the market, Crabbe landed a four-year, $75 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets that Portland had little choice but to match.

Crabbe's catch-and-shoot game was a good fit alongside Lillard and McCollum. Though he created his own shot frequently at Cal, where he averaged 18.4 points as a junior, Crabbe mostly gets set up by teammates in the NBA. Some 83.9 percent of his field goals were assisted. Within that confined role, Crabbe was an efficient scorer, making 39.3 percent of his 3-point tries. Crabbe could stand to trade some long 2-pointers for 3s. Although he was more accurate just inside the line (44.3 percent), those shots are less valuable than his 3s, and 27 percent of Crabbe's shots were 2-pointers from beyond 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com.

Lineups with Crabbe at small forward maximize the Blazers' shooting but aren't as effective on defense. At 6-foot-6, Crabbe is a bit undersized to deal with many small forwards and was vulnerable to post-ups. According to NBAwowy.com, Portland allowed 111.5 points per 100 possessions when Crabbe played with Lillard and McCollum, as compared to a 106.2 defensive rating when the starting guards played without Crabbe. He does a nice job against players his own size, locking and trailing them well around screens, but isn't a big factor as a rebounder or help defender.

On Ed Davis:

Scouting report
+ Quality backup big man who's best suited as a center
+ Relentless offensive rebounder and high-percentage finisher
+ Average shot-blocker who can get pushed around in paint

Analysis
Along with Aminu, Davis was the Blazers' other bargain pickup in 2015 free agency. Portland got him on a three-year deal for $20 million and got 20 minutes a night of solid play at backup center. Davis, who is 6-foot-10, entered the league as a power forward and played a little bit alongside Plumlee with decent results, but given his limited shooting range and ability to block shots he's now almost exclusively a center.

A fine pick-and-roll finisher, Davis shot a team-high 57.3 percent as a roll man, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. He can finish with power at the rim and has good body control in traffic. Last season even saw Davis put the ball on the ground at times and find teammates, though he'll never be a playmaker like Plumlee. When he wasn't involved in the pick-and-roll, Davis was attacking the offensive glass. He secured 14.4 percent of missed shots while on the court, putting him in the league's top 10.

Despite having a relatively small wingspan (7-foot) for a center, Davis has been an average shot-blocker at the position. His rim protection numbers last year were suspiciously impressive. Opponents made just 45.7 percent of their shots within 5 feet against Davis, per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, putting him in the league's top 10. Davis allowed 54.0 percent shooting in 2014-15 with the L.A. Lakers and 61.7 percent in last year's playoffs, so odds are that number is somewhat fluky.

 

On Meyers:

Scouting report
+ Sweet-shooting big man who's coming off shoulder surgery
+ Capable 3-point shooter who saw inevitable shooting regression
+ Tough post defender but hopelessly outmatched on perimeter

Analysis
Leonard was counting on a breakout season when he reportedly turned down a four-year, $40 million extension offer from the Blazers in training camp. However, he lost the starting job at power forward after suffering a dislocated shoulder in November, then saw his season end in March when a recurrence of the injury required surgery. Leonard still got an almost identical deal of four years, $41 million as a restricted free agent and will hope for better health in 2016-17.

Part of the reason Leonard lost his starting job is that he isn't really a power forward. Per Nylon Calculus tracking, Portland outscored opponents by 18.0 points per 100 possessions with Leonard at center, compared with plus-1.1 per 100 with him at power forward. While his offensive skills might be well suited at power forward, Leonard, who is 7-foot-1, lacks the lateral mobility to defend on the perimeter, and bringing him off the bench allowed Stotts to crossmatch with Leonard on centers and Davis on power forwards. Eventually, the Blazers will probably have to live with Leonard's limitations as a rim protector and play him in the middle. He is a surprisingly good post defender who frustrated DeMarcus Cousins in head-to-head matchups.

Having surpassed 300 career 3-point attempts, Leonard is now the most accurate 3-point-shooting 7-footer in NBA history, just ahead of Dirk Nowitzki, according to Basketball-Reference.com. After shooting 42.0 percent on limited attempts in 2014-15, Leonard settled in at 37.7 percent last year, a reasonable expectation going forward. He also has some ability to see the court, handing out a career-best 2.5 assists per 36 minutes last year, some on football-style outlet passes.

On Harkless:

Scouting report
+ One-and-done small forward with four years' experience at age 23
+ Poor 3-point shooter who's otherwise selective with his shots
+ Versatile defender with excellent size for the wing

Analysis
Harkless languished on the market as a restricted free agent through most of July before returning to the Blazers on a new four-year, $40 million deal. While he got the smallest contract of the three wing players Portland signed to new deals this summer, Harkless might still retain the role of starting small forward, which he played during last year's playoffs, because his defense fits well with Lillard and McCollum.

The Blazers originally got Harkless from the Orlando Magic for a 2020 second-round pick that only conveys if the Blazers are one of the league's five best teams. Harkless' non-shooting was one reason he didn't fit in Orlando, and while he was certainly a willing 3-point shooter in Portland, he wasn't particularly accurate (27.9 percent). Harkless also presented a safe hiding spot for teams that didn't want to use their point guards to defend either Lillard or McCollum, since he rarely posts up. Harkless was able to make them pay on the offensive glass, one way he generated more than half his shot attempts inside three feet, per Basketball-Reference.com. As a result, Harkless' overall true shooting percentage (.541) was near league average.

The best wing defender on the Blazers, Harkless can guard anywhere from point guard to stretch 4s. Standing 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot wingspan, his size is a major deterrent for smaller players, who have a tough time beating him off the dribble. Harkless' defensive intensity was criticized with the Magic, but that wasn't an issue whatsoever last season, a big reason he emerged as a starter.

On FestivusForTheRestOfUs:

Scouting report
+ Quality defensive center who has been hampered by knee injuries
+ Mechanical offensive player who favors a jump hook in the post
+ Outstanding rim protector who can also defend on the perimeter

Analysis
After emerging as a key reserve for the 2014-15 champion Warriors, Ezeli was hoping for a big payday as a restricted free agent. That never materialized because of concerns about Ezeli's knees. Right knee surgery cost him the entire 2013-14 campaign, and Ezeli missed most of last year's second half because of left knee surgery, which also limited him during the playoffs. As a result, he settled for a two-year, $15.1 million deal with Portland that is only guaranteed for $1 million in 2017-18. While that deal carries relatively little risk, already Ezeli's knees are an issue. He underwent an injection of bone marrow aspirate concentrate and Orthovisc in late August that is expected to sideline him six weeks, putting Ezeli back early in training camp.

If healthy, Ezeli could be an interesting fit with the Blazers, because he provides the rim protection they lacked during last year's postseason. Opponents shot just 43.6 percent within 5 feet against him, the league's third-best mark per SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Yet Ezeli also has the quickness when healthy -- a key caveat -- to step away from the basket. Portland saw that first-hand in last year's playoff series, when Ezeli's ability to step up on Lillard pick-and-rolls took away the pull-up jumpers that were torching Golden State's other centers. As a result, while he's prone to fouls, Ezeli should be the Blazers' best defensive option in the middle.

Besides his health, Ezeli's offense was the other reason Steve Kerr was reluctant to trust him in the 2016 playoffs. When opponents trap the pick-and-roll, as they did with Curry and will with Lillard, Ezeli is hard-pressed to make a play in a 4-on-3 situation. He's more comfortable with his back to the basket. Of the plays he finished, 21.3 percent came on post-ups according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, most on the Warriors. But Ezeli shot just 37.3 percent on his favored jump hooks.

 

According to this, Meyers is the most accurate 3 point shooting 7 footer in the history of the NBA

 

On Meyers:

Scouting report
+ Sweet-shooting big man who's coming off shoulder surgery
+ Capable 3-point shooter who saw inevitable shooting regression
+ Tough post defender but hopelessly outmatched on perimeter

Tough post defender........hmm

 

Every contract we pat out the media views as an "overpay" until the player justifies the contract. Just wait until Turner fits in perfectly with the Blazers and they eat crow.

 

I think Orlando gets that 2020 second round pick...

 

It's weird; his opponent close-in FG% says this is true, but boy it doesn't look it in action.

 

On Turner:

Scouting report
+ Volume-scoring wing who needs the ball in his hands
+ Poor outside shooter; not particularly accurate in midrange
+ Above-average defender with size to play either wing spot

Not sure I totally agree with this assessment. He shot 48 % from 2pt range. (74 % of his shots were 16 feet and in.)
Not great but I would not say he is inaccurate. He believes in the mid range game:

http://www.slamonline.com/nba/evan-turner-the-future-is-the-mid-range/#dxKqFGgY3pY3Zkeh.97

 

I also think he'll win the Al-Farouq Aminu Award for most improved 3-point shooter (though, not as a member of the Meyers Leonard How The Fuck Did You Shoot 50/40/90 club)

 

And he started off last season in a horrible slump. He's better than last year's average.

 

I honestly think 40% is his natural rate. He was a bit up two years ago and a bit down last year. And if a player can play 8 minutes a game and shoot 40% from three, you keep him on your team. Doesn't matter if he's 7 foot tall or 5 foot tall.

 

Meyers showed it against Gasol in the playoffs, against Cousins last season, and against others who have tried to straight up overpower him. His somewhat poor reaction time and lateral movement makes him not very good at help defense or defense away from the basket, but if someone is trying to post him up he holds his own.

 

I want to see Meyers in the post on defense, and spreading the floor on offense. Stretch Center.