For Those That Think We Should Tank...

If you think we need to lose in order to get into the lottery, I want to point out a few reasons why that is not a good idea. If we want into the lottery, we can get there without having to tank, which is explained a little bit further down, but I don't know if we need to. First, we will break down our team, where we are and where they came from in respect to the draft.


...........................................Years.......Draft......
......Name..............Age.......in NBA....Position...
Damian Lillard............26...............4............6th,POR
Shabazz Napier...........25...............2...........24th, CHA
Tim Quarterman........22...............R............UD,LSU
CJ McCollum..............25...............3............10th,POR
Patt Connaughton......23...............R............41st,BKN
Allen Crabbe..............24...............3.............31st,CLE
Evan Turner..............28................6............2nd, PHI
Jake Laymen.............22................R............47th, ORL
Maurice Harkless......23.................4...........15th,PHI
Al-Farouq Aminu......26.................6.............8th,LAL
Noah Vonleh.............21..................2...........9th,CHA
Mason Plumlee.........26.................3...........22nd,BKN
Ed Davis....................27.................6...........13th,TOR
Meyers Leonard........24................4............11th,POR
Festus Ezeli...............27.................3...........30th,GSW


That is 7 lotto picks on our team and Harkless was just one number shy of making that 8. That is half our roster!!!!

When you tank to get into the draft, it is one of the worst things a team can do unless they got hit hard by the injury bug and have no chance of competing and make it a one year dump to toss a potential future build around into/alongside your already contending team. Any other scenario is telling your current studs they are not good enough(which may be true) and WILL play with their heads.
Do you really think that Dame would be happy or content to try to tank to make the team better? If you do then I don't think you understand his leadership mentality and drive to be the best at his game.

What makes this team have bright moments is him. His championship mindset of believing he can win it all. That is rare and special in a world where soooo many people of all walks and races are unsure of themselves.
This guy believes. There is no way he is not going to give 100% effort. It just isn't gonna happen, so this alone should be enough for people to stop calling for the team to intentionally lose. You just don't do that. You lose fans, you lose player confidence and many, many other negative things come from what? One of the names listed above?

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In a culture transformed into such an upstanding positive vibe, tanking would be taking a serious gamble at seeing that cohesiveness and culture crumble into selfishness and confusion amongst the players.
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Now to my point of losing for a spot and the numbers listed above. Unless you are one of the few worst teams in the NBA, your odds of getting a top 5 are fairly slim, as evidenced by us having 3 draftees on our roster and not one was a top 5(Dame was one pick off). All the other lotto picks on our roster we traded for.

So, in essence, if we attempt to tank, we still will have slim chances of getting into the top 5 and get one of the potential"Game Changers" in the upcoming draft, unless we pull off a supertank that would be obvious to everyone including league officials.
Odds are we would end up with a 6-14 pick.

Now, let's take a look at this years upcoming draft class projected by draftexpress as of 12/05/16 and see how deep it is and what players are potential to fit a long term need for us....

1. Markelle Fultz...PG..........we don't have a need
2. Dennis Smith......PG.......we don't have a need
3. Josh Jackson......SF..........Secondary need(potential elite defender though)
4. Lonzo Ball..........PG..........we don't have a need
5. Malik Monk.........Pg..........we don't have a need
6. Jayson Tatum....SF...........Secondary need
7. Jonathan Isaac......SF........Secondary need
8. Lauri Markkanen...PF.......Primary need
9. OG Anunoby..........SF........Secondary need
10. De'Aaron Fox......PG.........We don't have a need
11. Ivan Rabb.............PF....... Primary need
12. Frank Ntilikina.....PG.......We don't have a need
13. Harry Giles...........PF........Primary Need
14. Miles Bridges.......SF/PF...Secondary need

Of those potential draft slots, only 4 meet a primary need and only 5 meet a secondary need. 6 players do not meet our needs. So aprox. only half of these guys would fit our needs and that's without checking defensive/offensive tendencies and numbers.

Now for the rest of the projected first round....

15. Bam Adebayo........C.........Primary need
16. Marques Bolden....C........Primary need
17. Tyler Lydon..........SF/PF....Secondary need
18. Terrance Ferguson....SG......We don't have a need
19. Roions Kurucs........SF........Secondary need
20. Thomas Bryant........C.........Primary need
21. Jonathan Jeanne.....PF/C.....Primary need
22. Omer Yurtseven........C.........Primary need
23. Isaiah Hartenstein....PF.......Primary need
24. Edmond Sumner.......PG......We don't have a need
25. Alec Peters.................PF......Primary need
26. Jaron Blossomgame....SF.......Secondary need
27. Grayson Allen...............SG.......We don't have a need (and might be a dirtier player than D.Green *Puke*)
28. Kostja Mushidi............SG.......We don't have a need


Of these players 7 meet a primary need, 4 meet a secondary need and only 4 we do not have a need for.

So to summarize, the odds of finding the right player that fits our needs in this upcoming draft class is much higher in the later portion of the draft.

We currently own 2 (potential) late round picks and could use these to get two players of need. We can do this without trying to lose one game and we can do this even if we make the playoffs and win it all!!!
There is no need to tank to try to get into that upper half when the odds are much slimmer of nailing a guy that actually fits our needs. Yes there are a few in there that are high potential for stardom, but what good are three star guards? Or what is the point of doing a super tank to try to get into the top three when that is still slim chances only to have the number 2 team draft the guy we wanted at 3 and now we have to draft a guy that would have gone much lower, simply because the rest of the players don't fit our needs? We could get that same player later in the round potentially.

I am sorry, but it just makes zero sense to tank unless our two stars go down for the season.


Now, if we want in the top three there are other ways to do that. We trade. We trade Crabbe/Ezeli/ both our 1sts and maybe Vonleh or Davis or something? to get a top three pick from PHI or Boston? I don't know when it is determined exactly, or who has what and im about done researching for this morning. lol. But we could trade up and try to land Josh Jackson
If we were to get into the upper lottery then these are the moves I would make, and I believe this to be much riskier than doing trades because lottery picks can often bust.

We move whatever players it takes to get a pick that would allow us to draft Josh Jackson and he is our starting 2 guard for the future next to Dame. I would do a CJ trade straight up if it allowed us to nail Jackson, but I would prefer to get it with a combination of players/our other picks. Depending on what we had to give up I would then go one of the two next routes...
If we had to give up CJ, then I would go after a Crabbe/Ezeli/Plumlee trade for Nerlens Noel. There are various combinations of players I would be willing to give up, it would depends on who they want, but lets say they want the afore mentioned. This would allow us to look like this...

Dame/Napier/Quarterman
Jackson/Turner/Connaughton
Harkless/Turner/Laymen
Aminu/Vonleh
Noel/Davis/Leonard

That is a pretty good start to contending, and then we fill in the gaps as needed, but I don't think there would be much left to work on.

However, this would be my dream scenario, and I will try to keep it realistic.

We trade both our 1st's/Ezeli/Crabbe to whoever would get us a pick to nail Jackson

We then trade CJ/Aminu/Leonard to Sac for DMC.

We would look something like this...

Dame/Napier/Quarterman
Jackson/Turner/Connaughton
Harkless/Turner/Laymen
DMC/Vonleh
Plumlee/Davis

Then I would go after Noel with some combination of Harkless/Laymen, Davis/Vonleh and a future 1st.

Lets say they take Harkless/Vonleh and a 1st, which would be the best package for them in my opinion, we would then look like this.

Dame/Napier/Quarterman
Jackson/Turner/Connaughton
Turner/Laymen/MLE
DMC/Davis
Noel/Plumlee

Again, fill in the gaps and that's a contender.

At any rate, the point is to show there are many many ways we can improve this team over the next year without having to even entertain the idea of tanking.

Can we please stop asking this team to actively lose????

 

Good post!
I don't want us to purposely tank. But if the losses continue to pile up and we are a lottery team, it's not the end of the world.

 

The way this years projected Lottory picks fall, Portland could stay right where there are and address their biggest area of need. That also means the PF/C are not that highly rated this year but in terms of need, there is no reason for a tank. Rudy Gobert 2.o is sitting at #21.

 

There is a fundamental flaw with my scenario or any scenario to trading CJ though.

Our GM loves to devote lifelong marriages to his draftees. He must be willing to trade CJ for any of the above to happen.
I don't think we can put the right team around Dame and CJ together for one main reason. Money. They are both locked in to long term max/near max contracts. and now take almost 50% of our payroll. The elite in the paint guy we need is going to demand almost the same max/near max contract. Not enough money to go around. we need an elite defensive guard next to Dame that can provide some offense, but not counted on as much as his defense and thus doesn't demand a max contract. Then we can toss the money into the paint for a guy like DMC.

 

I don't wanna Tank because we will end up drafting a big that will take 2-3 years to develop. By then Vonleh may be good and we will have wasted a pick. We are just in a shitty situation.

Also, I'm not confident in our coaching staffs ability to develop big men... Leonard and Vonleh have been flops thus far.

 

I suspect drug usage if anyone thinks one of those scrubs is going to come in and outplay Plumlee in their first 1-2 years.

I bet EL P would like to have a Bam Adebayo jersey though.

 

Thanks! And WAYYYYY too F'ing long. That's all I will divulge. lol

 

Takes too long to develop draft picks. We need to surround our key players with better or more complimentary players who already have some seasoning. Trades needed.

 

Props to you, partner, for putting in the time and effort.

 

I would entertain someone like Jackson. I think he would be able to get into the flow within his first season and would be a great long term fit next to Dame. Not a rental for someone who bolts. Plus the money difference would help our long term alot.
But if not him, then I'm not sure I want to do anything more than use our picks on the draft for end of bench future role player potential and if we get lucky, great.

I think CJ has to go no matter what though.

 

Playoffs - we trade for complementary players as BBert posted a few minutes ago. Some people think the primary target should be a defensive 4/5 player. For now, I would attempt to improve our porous perimeter D. I would like to have a pre-injured Wesley Matthews type of player next to Dame in the backcourt while retaining Aminu and Hark as our defensive small forwards.

Lottery - Trade CJ as you suggest, but this will take considerable time to develop the lottery pick (again, as BBert mentioned earlier). Orion, can you tell me more about Jackson? I haven't been watching NCAA Basketball at all this year.

 

So you're saying he's Mormon and gay...interesting

 

Well done! Good boy!

 

He will be a happy dog if you give him a BBQ Beef Brisket!

 

Honestly, I would rather go with the trade CJ for DMC and draft the gaps with our picks if we could get DMC without giving our picks up, or at least one of them.

Sorry, I wasn't very clear. I am not in favor of trying to get into the lottery at all, but if we do or did, I would target this guy, because I think he would fit next to Dame and be part of a long term future that could potentially extend beyond Dame. Kinda like the Spurs getting Kawhi as there next gen player even though he was playing the the older guys.

Josh Jackson review. Comparison: Kawhi Leonard
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/josh-jackson
Strengths: High level athletic wing who plays with a lot of passion and intensity … Vocal leader … Charismatic personality … Gifted player on both offense and defense, possesses a lot of natural ability … Tremendous athlete ... Great combination of explosiveness and finesse … Advanced court vision, allows him to be multidimensional offensively as a threat to score or distribute ... Does a great job of playing to his strengths whether it’s scoring for himself or finding a teammate who has the hot hand … Can score in a variety of ways and is a threat from multiple spots on the floor … Good ball handler. Can create off the dribble and get where he wants … Controls his defender on the perimeter … Thrives in transition, as a leader and finisher, also plays well in a half court set … Defends well and has the tools to be elite at the highest level … Great shot blocker for a wing, great timing and quick elevation. Good instincts, knowing when to jump for blocks and when to stay on his feet … Rebounds well … Improved his scoring in the post more when he was defended by a smaller guard … Serves as an all-around player and impacts the game in multiple categories … Clutch gene. Had many big moments at crucial times to finish close games … Intense competitor. Can play through physicality …

Weaknesses: Can improve as a ball handler but has made noticeable strides … Can improve his jump shot. He can get hot from outside but can still add consistency, still has a slight hitch in his shot that causes him to release the ball on the way down … Passionate player but can wear his emotions at times … Older for his grade by quite a bit. Will turn 20 in February of his freshman season ...

Outlook: Jackson had a big senior season showcasing his elite ability against top competition ... He never failed to rise to the occasion ... When he gets into attack mode and plays at his best, he can’t be matched ... Earned MVP of the McDonald’s All-American Game ... As of right now, it is likely he will only be at Kansas for one season as he is the top prospect among the talented 2017 NBA Draft class ... His rare combination of elite tools, athleticism, and IQ gives Jackson the potential to be one of the faces of the NBA in the future ...

Evan Tomes 6/28/16
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High Schhol Accolades and awards:
http://www.kuathletics.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=7142

This season with Kansas thus far...
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4066297/josh-jackson


Highschool Highlights:


Another solid review with video:
http://throughthephog.com/2016/10/31/ku-basketball-preview-jackson/

So far this season with Kansas:

 

Didn't the Spurs find Kawhi in the D league?

 

Is that what they call the 15th pick in the 1st round now?