Did the Blazer roster improve, get worse, or stay about the same as last season?

I would say we SHOULD give an edge to this year's team but somehow as a whole, they have regressed. Yes they started out this way last year but with their 2nd half run and some playoff success, they should be at that place or better....not back to where they were at the beginning of last year.

 

I think that "far, far less flexible" part of your calculus is questionable, at least in the long run. Looking at where the money got spent, I doubt anyone would quibble with CJ's extension. I'd say that Turner's and Crabbe's deals are real stretches when it comes to TBpup's return on investment equation. Leonard, despite his many detractors around here, is not overpaid for a guy his size and age. Harkless is a good value. With CJ's salary kicking in next year, the Blazers wouldn't have had much, if any, cap space if they'd been more frugal last summer. The salaries of the questionable contract guys will look less obnoxious as the cap and LT increase and as the number of years remaining decrease. I think NO will have options next summer or, if not, certainly by the following one.

 

I think that's a very weird way of putting it, since you didn't mention basketball ability. Isn't basketball ability not just relevant, but the overwhelmingly most important factor in how much to pay a guy? The stats suggest Leonard currently isn't even worth a spot on an NBA team and watching him play doesn't make me feel that the numbers are wrong. It doesn't matter what his size and age are if he can't play.

$10M is a gigantic overpay for someone who's done as little as Leonard and who's playing even worse this season. He's not getting better over time, he's getting worse. I consider Leonard's extension by far the worst decision Olshey has made, easily outstripping the decision to match on Crabbe. I really don't understand why Leonard is a cult favorite around here--he's never done anything to deserve being so highly thought-of by a minority here.

I strongly believe that if Olshey had given him a deal of $15M per year, there would be a significant number of fans saying that it's fine, you have to pay big men and $15M isn't going to sink us. None of which has any relevance to the fact that there's no evidence that he's worth anything close to that. While that's just my speculation, all of that remains true at $10M.

The way you described Leonard's deal in fact illustrates the problem with most people's justifying of not just his, but Crabbe's deal: it implies that Leonard is basically just one of a bunch of identical "young bigs" (and Crabbe is just one of a bunch of identical wings) and you gotta pay young bigs and wings. It completely ignores the fact that there's huge variation in the ability of young, big men and wings.

 

Not sure I understand this statement. Is it because Ezeli's contract expires $2 million more than Kaman's?

I would agree Ezeli would have been the better player of the two, IF HE HAD PLAYED ANY GAMES.

However, neither player has played any games this season. We are left with comparing an intangible, veteran leadership.

It was very clear Kaman mentored Meyers and even worked with him in the off-season. Kaman made a positive impact on Meyer's game. Heck he may have even helped the other bigs, such as Ed Davis. Both Meyers and Davis appear to regress this season without Kaman's bench tutoring.

If Ezeli is mentoring and providing veteran leadership, we have not heard about it yet. So at this point, signing Ezeli over Kaman appears to have weakened the team. (my opinion, 5 cents worth based on limited inside knowledge)

 

The team still has chances to gain wins and be .500. If not then the defaut answer is worse than 2015-16 Forget Ezeli who could have been significant. Quarterman, Layman and Nappier are ghosts.

 

That's an awful lot of writing just to call me a dumbass.

Miles Plumlee - $12.5M
Kosta Koufos - $8M
Tyler Zeller - $8M
Cole Aldrich - $7.6M

I think Leonard's playing contributions are pretty comparable to those guys. Aldrich accepted a bit of a lowball offer last summer because he wanted to play for the TWolves. I'd say that Meyers' $9.2 this season is right in the ballpark. Maybe a million high, but not enough to matter.

 

The problem I have with Meyers is, he has shown flashes of greatness. He has had a few really good games. He even had really good games in the playoffs against the tough Grizz defense. Then he goes back to his old clueless self. I’m convinced his problem is mental.

Meyers has a ton of talent, but he doesn’t apply it well for very many games. It’s like he is playing in an alternate dimension, with an occasional appearance in the NBA dimension. Or, maybe the game is just too fast for him. Not sure what his mental problem is, and if it is fixable?

 

A chance to be .500...LoL

 

If I thought you were a dumbass, I'd just come right out and call you a SlyPokerDog.

I don't agree with this at all. I won't go through each of them, I'll just pick Aldrich, since he's the lowest-paid on this list.

Let's look at a few metrics and compare and contrast messieurs Aldrich and Leonard.

On the broader, court impact level, we can look at Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, to get a sense for how they impact the offensive and defensive ends of the court. 105 is generally average for these ratings, bigger is better for ORtg, lower is better for DRtg.

ORtg-Aldrich, past four seasons (this season included): 120, 104, 113, 125
ORtg-Leonard, past four seasons (this season included): 104, 117, 107, 98

DRtg-Aldrich, past four seasons (this season included): 100, 102, 94, 105
DRtg-Leonard, past four seasons (this season included): 105, 102, 109, 114

Leonard had, by far, his best season by these metrics three years ago when he had his "breakout." He shot the ball well and defended well in limited minutes and shot attempts. Pretty good for age 22. But it's been downhill since then. Last year, given more (but not way more) opportunity, his offensive production plummeted (though still above average) and his defense began to crater. This season, the roof has completely caved in--he's got the offensive impact of a defensive specialist, except he's a terrible defender too. That's why I said that he's currently not even a legitimate NBA player--you can't be simultaneously a terrible defender and terrible on offense and have a role on an NBA team.

Meanwhile, Aldrich has bounced around a bit. On offense, he's bounced between average and way above average and on defense, between average and well below average. You wouldn't count on him to be a great player, considering how variable he is, but he's going to play at least average offense and at least average defense and often give you more than that. He's significantly underpaid, but he's the kind of guy you give $10M to cheerfully and it's money well-spent.

We can look at more component-based numbers too, rather than such broad metrics (feel free to skip past to the written conclusions if your eyes glaze over at the glut of numbers):

TS% (scoring efficiency)-Aldrich: .620, .513, .626, .552
TS%-Leonard: .489, .631, .561, .497

Rebound Rate (based on rebound opportunities)-Aldrich: 23.0, 20.0, 19.6, 17.6
Rebound Rate-Leonard: 16.8, 15.8, 12.8, 10.8

Assist Rate (percentage of teammate buckets assisted)-Aldrich: 6.4, 13.3, 10.0, 6.1
Assist Rate-Leonard: 7.3, 5.8, 10.6, 6.5

Block Rate (percentage of opponent shots blocked while on floor)-Aldrich: 8.1, 5.5, 6.7, 4.2
Block Rate-Leonard: 1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 2.0

Steal Rate (same as above but for steals)-Aldrich: 1.3, 2.0, 2.9, 2.5
Steal Rate-Leonard: 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3

PER (the infamous!)-Aldrich: 19.1, 18.1, 21.3, 14.4
PER-Leonard: 9.4, 14.8, 11.3, 7.9

This doesn't really change the picture at all. The scoring efficiency and rebound rate also tell the same story of Leonard's game deteriorating over time. His assist rate is more of a random walk and his block and steal rates are basically too low to meaningfully get worse. Aldrich is substantially better in virtually all ways except for Assist Rate (where they're basically even, apart from one year).

All of this statistical stuff has some uncertainty, but when it's all pointing the same way, it's relatively stark to me: Leonard looked good in a short-minutes breakout two seasons ago, but not only has failed to sustain that performance, he's actually lost ground year by year. He's now two years older and in the midst of performance that doesn't resemble NBA-caliber performance.

Here's one more stat, not an advanced one and just for Leonard:

3P% (last three seasons, current season included): .420, .377, .333

That set of numbers might be the best illustration of all. Leonard's single basketball skill is shooting the three-pointer. That is literally the only thing he's ever done well in the NBA. In his breakout year, he shot 42% from three, which is pretty exciting from a big. Last year, he shot 37.7%, which is still something though a bit less thrilling when it's stapled to a package of nothing else. This year he's shooting 33%. That's below average. His one skill is shooting three-pointers and he's below average at it.

I really don't think you can compare him to Aldrich or any of the other players on that list. This is why I consider Leonard's extension far and away Olshey's worst decision. $10M for a player who's never been good, bet on himself and got worse and is now not even playing at NBA levels is just off-the-charts bad. Sure, $10M alone isn't going to destroy the payroll, but $10M for literally nothing is taking on a pretty significant franchise handicap.

 

First of all, I think that you have to give Meyers a bit of slack this season due to him coming back from shoulder surgery. That likely explains his reduced shooting accuracy this year. I'd be willing to bet that he pulls his 3P% back up to last year's rate by the end of the season.

Second, using Aldrich as a comparison is cherry picking. The guys are used completely differently by their teams. Aldrich plays a true center position while Meyers is used as a stretch 4. Of course his scoring efficiency, blocks and rebounding stats aren't going to compare with Aldrich's.

None of the guys on that list play the same kind of role as Meyers, but his minutes played, points scored and total rebounds compare with their production.

And thank you for not calling me a SlyPokerDog. Those are fighting words.

 

I literally picked the guy who was paid the least on your list. It had nothing to do with cherry-picking. I didn't go through every player on your list because it takes a while to type in all those numbers and we probably didn't need a post longer than every other post on this forum, combined. You tell me the NBA player you think Leonard compares best with and we can compare them.

Also, why on Earth would scoring efficiency be decreased by Leonard playing stretch four while Aldrich plays center? Shooting three-pointers isn't supposed to reduce your scoring efficiency--they're harder to hit but they count for more points. For players who shoot threes well, shooting them is supposed to increase their efficiency. Leonard just isn't shooting them well. And it's not just this season that his scoring efficiency suffers compared to Aldrich.

There's a reason that I included Offensive and Defensive Rating--it just measures overall effect on offense and defense. Even if you don't think Leonard should be getting blocked shots (and he should--the whole reason why being big and able to shoot is valuable is because they can stretch defenses on offense and still play like big men on defense), he should still be having a positive effect on defense (and offense) if he's going to be as valuable as Aldrich.

 

I plead guilty to complaining about Aldrich without looking at his stats. Oops. He pretty much sucks, at least from a pure production standpoint.

Why would Leonard's scoring efficiency be impacted more by the way he's used than Cole's? Because guys do go into major shooting slumps from distance while the same is not true of low post scorers. Leonard was injured last season and he's coming back from surgery this year. Your "advanced stats" are nifty and all, but they sometimes are a case of not seeing the forest for the trees. There's a reason for Meyers' decline in scoring efficiency yet the numbers aren't interested in reasons.

I'm certainly not trying to say that Meyers is producing the way he needs to on either end of the court. He needs to play better, period. I am saying, however, that his salary is not out of line when compared to the absolute production of big guys making similar money.

 

Is his shoulder surgery also the reason for all of his other numbers cratering over the past two years? It's not just his scoring efficiency. He's a poor rebounder too, relative to the number of rebounding opportunities available (that's why I used Rebound Rate, rather than raw rebounds--it's playing-time agnostic and it accounts for how many chances there were to rebound; a team that misses fewer shots and prompts fewer misses from the opposing team will have fewer chances to rebound the ball), his defensive numbers have gone down the past two years.

I agree that stats aren't the be-all and end-all, but the eye test hardly contradicts them, in my opinion. Sure, we can make allowances for returning from a surgery, but that doesn't really explain regressing everywhere in his game (from an already poor base of skills).

We can re-visit this at the end of the season, if you like, and in future seasons. Anything's possible, but what I see is a player who never had a broad base of skills to start with and has regressed over time. That isn't worth anything close to $10M a year. Hopefully Olshey correctly sees big upgrades to his game in the future.

 

I believe we are missing Hendos vet 'leadership by example' this year.
Just watching the guy, you could see he brought it 100% everytime he was on the court and was an absolute professional. . .

Would've been a much better signing than Crabbe. . .

 

Henderson was very vocal on defense....ET is more reserved...trying to fit it...AC is too mellow period..we need that dog barking off the bench