ASUFan22 vs tHe pEsTiLeNcE

Your first round matchup will start tonight at midnight, and end on next tuesday at midnightTopic: Who is the best low post player in basketball today and why is he better than every other low post player in basketball?

 

(I'd like to remind the judges that this is based on how well you argue your point, not who you choose)The best low post player in basketball is clearly Yao Ming this season.Yao is the only Forward or Center who is a top 10 scorer in the NBA, and the only top ten scorer who is a top 20 rebounder.Offensively, Yao is easily the best post player in the league. Yao's ppg, 25.9, beat out the next highest scoring post player, Zach Randolph, by a full 2 ppg and the next highest, Chris Bosh, by over 3 ppg. And ming plays less minutes than either of them. And shoots a far better percentage than either of them. Carlos Boozer is really the only person you can argue to be an equal post scorer than Yao, scoring "only" four ppg less than Ming and shooting 56.9% from the field. However, Yao has a top twenty fg% in the league too so it isn't much of a discrepancy. Yao Ming's scoring clip - 26 ppg in less than 35 minutes per game, has never been achieved in the history of the NBA.Another reason that Ming is such a good post player compared to most is that he actually plays in the post. 61% of Zach Randolph's shots are jumpers and 68% of Brand's are. Garnett only scores 5.3 ppg in the paint. Duncan and Boozer are the only ones who can hold a candle to Yao inside the paint, as all three shoot 52% of their shots in that area.In the paint, Duncan averages only 9.9 ppg, which is one of the best in the league, but is weak compared to Boozer and Yao. Boozer is the only guy who can compete with Yao in this area. And Boozer gets his shot blocked 1 out of every ten times he takes a shot inside, more than Yao or Duncan. 7% of Yao Ming's shots are dunks, and he had made every single dunk he's taken this season. 7% of Boozer's shots are dunks, and he shoots only 88% on dunks. That may seem like a good clip, but ITS ON DUNKS!. How can you expect to be a dominant post player when you can't even make 90% of your dunks and you get packed 10% of the time. Another way Ming exceeds Boozer is foul drawing. Yao draws fouls 18% more often than Boozer, good for DOUBLE as many free throws made per game, in less minutes. And once he gets to the line, Yao is an 87% shooter whereas Boozer can't break 70%. Another way that Boozer is inferior is that he gets passed to for so many of his points. Boozer's % of his shots that are assisted, not only is 9% worse than Yao's, but Boozer has Deron Williams on his team. It could be that we're seeing the same old Boozer, just with a better Williams to pass to him.And then we get to Defense. Boozer doesn't have to even be mentioned in the category of defense.As I mentioned before, Duncan is one of the only ones who is close to Yao as an overall post player. And since his offense is worse, he better hope his defense is better. No such luck.Centers Yao is guarding shoot a 44% eFG%. Compare that with a 51% eFG% shot by PFs Duncan is guarding, and you start to see a trend. Here's the per 35 minute #s of players Yao guards:11.44 ppg, 44% efg%, 5.76 fouls per gameAnd Here's the per 35 minute #s of players Duncan guards:13.9 ppg, 51% efg%, 3.4 fouls per gameIt doesn't take a rocket scientist to see which one plays better m2m defense. The players yao guards average a 10.0 PER, compared to 19 by duncan's opponents.Yao is the best offensive, and one of the few best defensive, post players in the league. An easy choice for me.

 

I am going to go with Tim Duncan. Looking at the shot charts, they are pretty much equal in their abilities to score inside. Yao spends a little more time inside during the game and scores very well, but Duncan also scores very efficiently inside(has almost double the attempts in the paint so far and scoring 1% higher). Duncan just seems to have a better post up game while Yao uses his height and soft touch to get it in.Actually, I just checked and Duncan just has slightly more attempts per game in the paint as Yao does(0.2 attempts). So, Yao actually does not spend more time inside. His scoring is due to him getting 3 more shot attempts per game...if Duncan had as many shot attempts, going by his field goal percentage, he would only average 2 points less than Yao does and add the fact that he's better on the other side of the ball and I'd say he is the better post player. If he had those 3 extra attempts he'd also equal Yao in free throw attempts per game which Yao only beats him by 1 in. So I wouldn't say Yao is better at drawing fouls either.Defensively, Duncan is known by NBA fans everywhere as one of the best. You posted both of the player's opponent's numbers, but Yao and Duncan play different positions. Duncan plays power forward, where it is very deep and very talented, especially in the West. Yao does not play against those talented power forwards, but instead, he plays the league's centers most of the time and those guys are much less talented offensively than the power forwards. That's because Yao is not as quick as guys like Garnett, Duncan, Nowitzki and other players like that. He gets in foul trouble really easy so he matches up defensively on the more offensively challenged centers that are on those teams and that's why I'd say those numbers look much better. Duncan is always matched up against the other team's most talented interior scorer, and there are a TON of good ones in the West. He does a very good job of defending them. You also can't forget that Yao has some good defenders around him when he plays and his back-up, Dikembe Mutombo, is one of the best that there is defensively, definitely much better than Oberto, Elson or Horry and that also has an effect on the stats you posted.Part of defense is also rebounding and Duncan has a nice advantage there. He is just a more aggressive player. I think that's were Yao's height hurts him. While it gives him more blocked shots and easier scoring opportunities, it makes him slower and makes it harder for him to fight for boards, especially since he doesn't have much of a jump either. I am also choosing Duncan because he has been better than Yao with turnovers this year. He is a better passer than Yao is and that is useful to be able to find people when you are posting up. It just makes you that much harder to defend.One more thing that I'd like to add to finish this post off is the clutchness factor. I think Duncan is a better post player because he can also take over games in the clutch. He, and his great playoff performances, are a huge reason why the Spurs have won championships. In any game if they need him too, he can step up and have great performances in the end. Yao does absolutely nothing in the clutch and that takes a little bit away from his overall game. That could be why, even with Yao's great numbers, that the Rockets are doing much, much better without Yao than without T-Mac. T-Mac makes the offense go while Yao slows it down at the end.

 

However he gets in, he's scoring in the post. Height is part of post play. I have seen many games where Yao is simply unstoppable, and scores or gets fouled practically every time he touches it. That doesn't happen with Duncan. More, and more effectively than Duncan. In less minutes. Yao spends more time inside because he's more effective inside than Duncan. Since Yao's outside shot is better than Duncan's, and so are his handles, it means his post game is that much better that it's taking shots away from his outside game.

That is a fallacy. 52% of Yao's shots are in the paint while 51% of Duncan's shots are in the paint. And Duncan takes less shots.

Here's the thing though, is that there's a reason that Duncan shoots less than Yao. Because he can't get open as much, and because it's possible to stop him. Duncan actually plays slightly more minutes than Yao, so you can't prorate anything for him. He takes as many shots as he takes. Are you calling Greg Popovic a bad coach for not giving him more shots? Going by field goal percentage, Artis Gilmore would have averaged 55 points per game in Wilt's shoes, however we all know that wouldn't have happened. Usage adversely affects performance, if you play more minutes, it's ok to some extent to prorate stats. If you average more shots per minute, what's that going to do to your fg%? Your TO rate? Your assists? Duncan taking more shots per minute would take away any advantages he had over Yao to start with. that's a 20% INCREASE IN SHOTS PER MINUTE and you think he could just absorb that without any adverse effects? As a center with a low assisted%, Duncan is a necessary cog in the offense at San Antonio, but he isn't THE offense. You can't compare the two because Duncan isn't even the number one option. If he were the #1 his fg% would take a dive, as it has done every year he was the #1 option. And yes I know you'll say "he is the #1 option, he takes the most shots" but he gets most of his shots through offensive boards, not being passed to. Yao, on the other hand, takes a front seat to even McGrady in the offense and still manages an equivalent fg% to TD.

Whoa, whoa, whoa, why don't you add some evidence to that claim and maybe we can talk. Besides a miniscule blocks per game lead (and I do mean miniscule) and some media hype, there is no evidence to show that Duncan is a better defender. Yao is a vastly underrated defender because it doesn't show up in the stat sheet, but yao holds his opponents to the lowest stats of any player in the league. That's what I call real defense, and is a lot more valuable than media hype.

If he had those three extra attempts it would totally screw up San Anonio's offense and Duncan's stats. You know how meticulously Popovic micromanages them? There's a reason Duncan is more consistent.

Actually, this season Duncan has played more center than power forward, so I'll post the stats of the opposing centers, EXCLUDING power forwards.Here's the per 35 minute #s of players Yao guards:11.44 ppg, 44% efg%, 5.76 fouls per game, 7.95 rpg, 1.53 bpg, 1.31 apg, 49% of shots insideAnd the per 35 minute #s of centers Duncan guards excluding PFs:12.05 ppg, 46% efg%, 5.76 fouls per game, 9.04 rpg, 1.53 bpg, 1.17 apg, 51% of shots insideSo across the board, Yao has even, or better defensive stats than Duncan when they're playing the same position. Despite the fact that Duncan has a better team to help him out on D. Until otherwise proved, I think that on the record Yao is certainly not an inferior defender, which will be noted until otherwise proved.

Right, and Dirk is such a low post juggernaut. And perimeter play and fact up game really pertain to the post.

No, actually it has

effect on the stats that I've posted because Yao and Dikembe are never in the game at the same time, so Dikembe obviously doesn't effect how the guys Yao guards so when Yao is in. There hasn't been a single second the entire season that they have both been on the court, so you clearly don't understand the stat.

No, part of defense is defensive rebounding. At defensive rebounding, Duncan barely edges yao but less than half a board per game. Duncan has an offensive rebounding advantage, but that does not pertain to defense and is reflected in his other stats (it's how he scored 31% of his points in the first ten seconds of the shot clock) so there's no point counting it twice. And duncan's advantage in Defensive boards is really minute - Duncan grabs 23% of available defensive rebounds and Yao grabs 22% of available defensive rebounds. Since rebounds give an extra possession and a possession on average is worth one point, Duncans rebounding is worth one point extra to his team every two games. :HAHAHA: to be continued, there's apparently a maximum number of quotes you can have in a post

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>I am also choosing Duncan because he has been better than Yao with turnovers this year. He is a better passer than Yao is and that is useful to be able to find people when you are posting up. It just makes you that much harder to defend.</div>Tim Duncan has Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Michael Finley, etc to pass to when he's double-teamed. As a result he gets doubled far less than Yao, who has Tmac, Shane Battier, occasionally Luther Head, and a bunch of ball hogs who can't shoot, on his team. More double teams mean more turnovers and better team mates mean more assists. Any player playing on the Spurs will have their efficiency increase. Look at Matt Bonner and Eric Williams. An offense like Popovic's with that much talent, as opposed to a JVG offense with less talent, is obviously going to get you less turnovers and more assists.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>One more thing that I'd like to add to finish this post off is the clutchness factor. I think Duncan is a better post player because he can also take over games in the clutch. He, and his great playoff performances, are a huge reason why the Spurs have won championships. In any game if they need him too, he can step up and have great performances in the end. Yao does absolutely nothing in the clutch and that takes a little bit away from his overall game. That could be why, even with Yao's great numbers, that the Rockets are doing much, much better without Yao than without T-Mac. T-Mac makes the offense go while Yao slows it down at the end.</div>First of all, I hope you realize that you're basing your entire evaluation of a player on the last two minutes of games that only happen 40% of the time. That's 1.7% of the season's minutes that you're basing this assertion on. But if we're going to go into less than 2% of the season's minutes, a very little amount of which is played in the post, then yes, Duncan is statistically a better player in the clutch.Duncan scores slightly more points per minute than yao in clutch situations, at a much higher percentage. He gets more rebounds. He gets more assists. He gets less turnovers. But his team loses.Duncan's team is 11-15 in the clutch (and have only lost 17 games) and, by their play this season, they're projected to be 39-11. They have been playing very poorly in the clutch, Whereas Yao has had almost no chance to play in the clutch. He's only played 17 games that were within 5 games with 5 minutes or less remaining in the last THREE SEASONS COMBINED, less than duncan has in this season alone. That shows that Yao gets it done in the other 40 minutes of the game, rather than waiting until late in the game to pull out a victorty. Duncan has always been great in the clutch, but not this year, and that's the reason his team isn't compteting for the #1 seed.Overall, Duncan is obviously better in the clutch, but the rest of your argument is based around the fact that Duncan has high efficiency and gets the ball less, not realizing that him getting the ball less us causal of his high efficiency.I would also like to remind you that this debate is who is a better post player, not a better player.

 

What do you mean it's a fallacy? If he takes less shots and he has slightly more attempts in the paint then how are those percentages possible?You are also wrong on minutes. I'm looking at yahoo.com and Duncan plays 13 SECONDS more than Yao each game. That's really not much of a difference.

Duncan doesn't shoot less because he can't get open as much. It's because he has other players on the team so that he doesn't need to do it. If he needed to he can, he is a talented post player and doesn't have trouble getting open. I never called Popovic a bad coach at all. I'm just saying that if Duncan needed to score more he could and could still do it as efficiently as he is now. I think he'd be able to make 1 or 2 every game out of those 3 attempts. Or draw another foul. It would probably take down his field goal percentage a bit, but probably not under 51% and probably not much at all in the paint. I'm not talking about San Antonio's offense and saying Pops is doing something wrong. I'm saying that if Duncan needed to, he is talented enough to put up the numbers that Yao does.Also, Yao has rarely played with McGrady this year. McGrady is the #1 option and it is showing with how much better the team has been with him than without Yao.

There is little difference in those stats. I was wrong with Dikembe because I didn't totally understand those stats, sorry, but he's not the only person I met. The players that do play around Yao are pretty solid defensive players and rebounders and that helps. Guys like Hayes, Battier and Howard...they are all pretty good defenders, better than what Duncan has and both Hayes and Howard outrebound San Antonio's bigs. He gets a lot of help.No, Dirk is not that great in the post even though he can play it well. BUT, defending him can hurt you in those defensive stats you posted but I guess you fixed that. You must have a lot of time on your hands or a very nice stats site that you have to share with me after this.It's also not just media hype. You just was these players and Duncan looks better in his man to man D.

He still does have a small advantage in defensive rebounding and that 1 more offensive rebound per game does add to the total package offensively. Overall I think he has a 1.4-ish advantage in rebounding and that is a pretty nice difference for big men.

Besides Parker and Ginobli, his team hasn't been all that great this year. The 3-point shooters aren't hitting their shots like they should be and the team is just getting old. Overall he has a 1.1 assist per game advantage over Yao over his career. Yes, he has good teammates, but that actually could hurt his passing numbers in a way. If his teammates were not as good, like Kevin Garnett's, he would have the ball more and get more assist chances. He is a pretty talented passer for a big man.Duncan performs the whole game, but has gone to another gear in the clutch. Just look at some of his playoff performances. He has been a huge reason why his teams have gone won 3 championships. Just because Yao isn't in as many of the situations doesn't take away from the fact that he does nothing at the end of games and T-Mac is the guy that wins games for them and they lose without McGrady in there.You also said somewhere that Yao's jumper is better...I couldn't find the quote so I'll reply here. He is a little bit better outside of the paint, but Duncan has that great mid-range banks shot and Yao hasn't been that much better this year. He has fewer attempts, but if they both had the same amount of shots, Yao's advantage would be about 1 point every 3 games and that's really nothing. And Duncan has more range and is able to shoot it from farther out than Yao.And I know this is about the better post player, but clutchness shows that Duncan is able to do what he does the entire game, it's not the other way around. Duncan doesn't take the rest of the quarters off and then just plays clutch. He plays well the whole game and steps up his game at the end, something that Yao is unable to do.

 

[quote name='ASUFan22' post='285913' date='Feb 10 2007, 02:30 PM']What do you mean it's a fallacy? If he takes less shots and he has slightly more attempts in the paint then how are those percentages possible?[/quote]I don't know where you're getting your stats from, but perhaps the difference is that the site I'm looking at specifies "inside shots" as opposed to "shots in the paint", which I suppose they define differently. My apologies.

That's why I said "slightly more". Look at a dictionary some time before you shoot your mouth off.

You said that if Duncan needed to score more he could still do it as efficiently as he does not, but you are wrong. This is Duncan's most efficient season since his first year. Efficiency goes down as usage rate goes up. That is a fact. A 20% increase in fga/minute would obviously cause a decrease in field goal percentage. That's just common knowledge. Usage rate adversely effects fg%.

Here's the thing though. If you have a player who is that efficient, you use them more. If a player shoots 70% from the field in 15 minutes per game, you give him a few more minutes per game to see how he does. Since there is nobody on the team remotely as close to as efficient as Duncan, the only possible reasons for him not shooting many shots is that he would decline in efficiency, or Popovic is a bad coach. You choose.

Thanks for helping my argument. Yao often has Luther Head or Shane Battier as his best option to pass to. Duncan has 8 guys who can shoot the three. Who do you think will get doubled more?

Exactly, there is little difference in those stats.Hayes and Howard also take away rebounds from Yao. If Yao played with the lack of rebounding San Antonio has he'd do better on the boards.

Agreed, Duncan is a better rebounder than Yao, my point was that the defensive rebounding difference was minute (1 possesion every two games). And the offensive rebounding difference definitely matters, but I think it's kind of already expressed in his scoring/assisting/fg% numbers.

 

He is a better passer, but passing out of the post slightly better to the tune of one more point per game again doesn't make a huge difference. Especially since not all his assists are in the post. And I disagree that the team hasn't been that great this year. A couple lucky bounces and they'd be neck and neck with Phoenix and Dallas right now. And the three pointers may not be hitting the shots they should, but the team is shooting an impressive 38% from the three point line. You need teammates to hit the shots to get assists. Yao also plays in an offense with a lot less passing that mostly involves pick and rolls. The roller in a screen and roll doesn't get credited with an assist, but picks leading to baskets are just as valuable as assists, and I bet Yao gets as many of those as anybody in the league.

Yao is still inexperienced in the clutch, but his teams have won in the clutch. Duncan's have in the past, but not this year. Duncan is better in the clutch, don't get me wrong, but Yao actually does score almost the same amount per minute in the clutch and wins his games there. That's probably due to T-Mac, but I think it's unfair to pull the championship thing on Ming, who has never in his career been in a position to win it all. Another bit of food for thought to chew on is that Yao, last season (the latest such data is available) shot 4/8 on game winners/tiers and 4/5 on game winning/tying free throws, comparable to Duncan's 6/13, 3/4. Also, Duncan is a mere 39.5% when there's 3 or less seconds on the shot clock, as opposed to 45% by Yao.

So you say Duncan is better at midrange and far out shots? Then how does Yao shoot a better percentage on jumpers? Now I'll admit it's a small difference (1.5%) but obviously Yao has to be better at one or the other. I think that Yao has just as long a range as TD, if not longer. Just because Duncan, for some reason unbeknownst to me, takes three pointers, doesn't mean he makes them. If they took the same number of attempts, it would still probably only be a 2% difference, but that's still a difference. Regardless, it has little to do with post game.

Ben Gordon doesn't take the rest of the game off either and takes his game to another level in the clutch and he isn't a great post player :dribble: I understand clutchness is a factor, I just think it's not as big a factor as it's made out to be. Also, a big reason Yao plays badly in the clutch is because the offense revolves around the incredibly Tmac in the clutch, and Tmac likes to drive. The majority of Yao's shots in the clutch are jumpers that are late in the shot clock. He gets almost no post up love late in the game (not that he's earned it). On the other hand, the majority of Duncan's shots in the clutch are post ups early in the shot clock, implying that they not only go to him, they go to him early.Once again, I will reiterate that I am aware of Duncan's clutch superiority, I just don't think that it overcomes his deficits in other areas (namely offense). In the end run, your clutch stats count in your stats for the game.

 

Yeah but it takes about 5 games for him to even get to a minute so that can't really be used for anything.

If you average out the 5 or 6 years in his career in which Duncan had 17 or 18 shots per he was scoring above 50% which is why I say that he probably wouldn't be under 51% if he did get those extra shots. He has been able to still attempt more shots and still do it efficiently before, but teams play better when the ball is spread out and Duncan still gets plenty of opportunities so no, Pops is not a bad coach.

It also does help out his defensive stats though, but even if it takes away a little rebounding, Yao is still not as good as Duncan. Yao's best rebounding season, last year, would've been Duncan's 11th best rebounding season if he'd average that much, Duncan has never averaged that few rebounds as Yao did in his best season.And about the teammates...the Rockets have 2 guys that shoot the 3 over 40% with at least 3 attempts per game, and the Spurs have 3...the old guys are getting worse and worse on that team.Also, the year when he had T-Mac and the Rockets were playing well he only had 0.8 assists. And like rebounding, Yao's career best of assists hasn't even touched Duncan's WORST.

I didn't say Duncan takes 3 pointers, I'm talking about shots inside the 3-point line. And you say that efficiency goes down with more opportunities. I don't remember exactly but Duncan has about 50-70 more attempts than Yao outside of the paint I think. Add more to Yao and his percentage will go down. I do think Duncan is a better mid-range shooter.And I really don't think there is much of a deficit in offense. I'd say that they are pretty equal. It's just on defense that I think Duncan is better and being clutch is an important thing, but I understand what you are saying.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>I didn't say Duncan takes 3 pointers, I'm talking about shots inside the 3-point line. And you say that efficiency goes down with more opportunities. I don't remember exactly but Duncan has about 50-70 more attempts than Yao outside of the paint I think. Add more to Yao and his percentage will go down. I do think Duncan is a better mid-range shooter.</div>All I know is that Yao shoots "jumpers" on a higher percentage of his field goal attempts than Duncan. What jumpers are defined as exactly is anybody's guess, but Yao takes more.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>And about the teammates...the Rockets have 2 guys that shoot the 3 over 40% with at least 3 attempts per game, and the Spurs have 3...the old guys are getting worse and worse on that team.</div>Yes, but the Rocket's guards are not spot up shooters, they are on the run shooters. Bruce Bowen, Brent Barry, and Robert Horry, no matter what their percentages are, are easier to assist to because they're spot up shooters.Also, Yao isn't required to make the passes because they've got two playmakers in Skip Alston and Tmac who pass better than any Spur.And once again, Yao is required by the offense to screen in closed ended offenses. The Rockets play an offense that is meant to end at a certain spot. The Spurs play an offense meant to continue until they get a good look. That's the same reason Nash's assists went up when he went to phoenix, because Phoenix was an open ended offense that kept swinging it around until they found the open man. Yao is supposed to be the end of the offense when he gets it.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>If you average out the 5 or 6 years in his career in which Duncan had 17 or 18 shots per he was scoring above 50% which is why I say that he probably wouldn't be under 51% if he did get those extra shots. He has been able to still attempt more shots and still do it efficiently before, but teams play better when the ball is spread out and Duncan still gets plenty of opportunities so no, Pops is not a bad coach.</div>But if he could get more opportunities and maintain this efficiency, like he did in other seasons, he would. How come in other seasons he was able to take that many shots and shoot that well despite having better team mates than he does now? Because he's declined since then. Pop didn't arbitrarily decide one day to make him take three less shots per game.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>All I know is that Yao shoots "jumpers" on a higher percentage of his field goal attempts than Duncan. What jumpers are defined as exactly is anybody's guess, but Yao takes more.</div>No, Yao doesn't take more and their %'s would even out or be even closer if he took as many.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Yes, but the Rocket's guards are not spot up shooters, they are on the run shooters. Bruce Bowen, Brent Barry, and Robert Horry, no matter what their percentages are, are easier to assist to because they're spot up shooters.Also, Yao isn't required to make the passes because they've got two playmakers in Skip Alston and Tmac who pass better than any Spur.And once again, Yao is required by the offense to screen in closed ended offenses. The Rockets play an offense that is meant to end at a certain spot. The Spurs play an offense meant to continue until they get a good look. That's the same reason Nash's assists went up when he went to phoenix, because Phoenix was an open ended offense that kept swinging it around until they found the open man. Yao is supposed to be the end of the offense when he gets it.</div>Yao has not played with TMac too much this season so his assists opportunities haven't been taken away from him. The Spurs have Tony Parker who I'd say is a better distributor than Alston. He has the same amount of assists in less minutes right now. The Rockets don't really have anyone else other than Alston that has played with Yao much who has more than 2 assists. So you can't use that as an excuse as to why Yao hasn't ever been any close passing-wise to Duncan. I guess it could be Van Gundy's coaching but I really haven't seen anything to show me that Yao is close to Duncan in passing.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>But if he could get more opportunities and maintain this efficiency, like he did in other seasons, he would. How come in other seasons he was able to take that many shots and shoot that well despite having better team mates than he does now? Because he's declined since then. Pop didn't arbitrarily decide one day to make him take three less shots per game.</div> Duncan has not declined. Last year's numbers were slightly down because Duncan was playing a lot of the season with a nagging foot injury. He is okay now and has played great with his time on the floor. The guy is still only 30 and while I think he's nearing the end of his prime, I don't think he's declining yet. He's playing a few less minutes but I think he'd still be able to play 38-40 minutes if needed.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>No, Yao doesn't take more and their %'s would even out or be even closer if he took as many.</div>82games.com says otherwise so I don't know what to tell you. Jumpers don't really matter per post play anyways.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Yao has not played with TMac too much this season so his assists opportunities haven't been taken away from him. The Spurs have Tony Parker who I'd say is a better distributor than Alston. He has the same amount of assists in less minutes right now. The Rockets don't really have anyone else other than Alston that has played with Yao much who has more than 2 assists. So you can't use that as an excuse as to why Yao hasn't ever been any close passing-wise to Duncan. I guess it could be Van Gundy's coaching but I really haven't seen anything to show me that Yao is close to Duncan in passing.</div>Yao has only played 6 games without tmac he has played in 75% of Yao's games.and here are Alstons three best assist/game years:6.7, 6.4, 5.3And Parker's6.1, 5.8, 5.6<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Duncan has not declined. Last year's numbers were slightly down because Duncan was playing a lot of the season with a nagging foot injury. He is okay now and has played great with his time on the floor. The guy is still only 30 and while I think he's nearing the end of his prime, I don't think he's declining yet. He's playing a few less minutes but I think he'd still be able to play 38-40 minutes if needed.</div>If Duncan hasn't declined then how come he's been moved to center, and had his minutes and shots decreased. Common coaching strategy is to play your best players until they get tired and let the guys who make the shots take the shots. Since Duncan doesn't have any really strong backups (unlike Yao), and his team doesn't have anybody more efficient than him, the only possible reason for him playing less minutes is him having less stamina and the only possible reason for him taking less shots is a decline.

 

I'm getting my stats from NBA.com....and some from Yahoo.Alston has played 5 more minutes per game more than parker the last 2 seasons and Parker is still getting more assists this season. From watching them I'd say Parker is the better passer but they aren't very far apart anyway.Duncan is at center only because the rest of the centers on his team aren't very good and it's a position he can play because he's good enough, not declining. It's smart to rest your starters as much as possible if you can, even if they are in their prime. They are the 3rd best team in the league without overplaying him, so why would they? Ginobli and Parker are the 2 other top players on the team and they get 28 and 33 minutes respectively. They aren't out of their prime and they could play more but overplaying your starters is foolish, so thanks for that Mike D'Antoni. :no1: My bad on McGrady. I got it mixed up...it has been McGrady that has played without Yao for a lot of his games. And they are like 15-5 in those games right? Or 15-6, I think that's what Nitro said....

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Duncan is at center only because the rest of the centers on his team aren't very good and it's a position he can play because he's good enough, not declining. It's smart to rest your starters as much as possible if you can, even if they are in their prime. They are the 3rd best team in the league without overplaying him, so why would they? Ginobli and Parker are the 2 other top players on the team and they get 28 and 33 minutes respectively. They aren't out of their prime and they could play more but overplaying your starters is foolish, so thanks for that Mike D'Antoni.</div>THey are the third best team in the league without overplaying him...... but home court advantage in the playoffs is especially important this year so that theory doesn't hold water. Last year the Spurs lost to the Mavs in seven games in perhaps the closest series in NBA history, so clearly home court advantage would help them a lot. Parker and Ginobili have very good backups, whereas Duncan doesn't (as you alluded to earlier). That is why they are playing less minutes.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tHe_pEsTiLeNcE @ Feb 10 2007, 06:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>THey are the third best team in the league without overplaying him...... but home court advantage in the playoffs is especially important this year so that theory doesn't hold water. Last year the Spurs lost to the Mavs in seven games in perhaps the closest series in NBA history, so clearly home court advantage would help them a lot. Parker and Ginobili have very good backups, whereas Duncan doesn't (as you alluded to earlier). That is why they are playing less minutes.</div>They had no chance of catching up to the Mavs or the Suns when they went on those runs. They are a distant 3rd and 3 minutes by Duncan wouldn't change anything. They have the 3rd spot while saving their players. The Suns have a high risk of injury with what they've been doing but the Spurs will be okay, but being 8 games behind the Mavs is almost impossible to overcome. The Mavs are just too good so far with the easy part of their schedule coming. Pops has been smart with his starters. Yes, Duncan doesn't have a great back-up but the 34-35 minutes he plays is plenty and that's 7 more than Manu who has a back-up.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>They had no chance of catching up to the Mavs or the Suns when they went on those runs. They are a distant 3rd and 3 minutes by Duncan wouldn't change anything.</div>Actually three minutes by duncan would change a lot. The Spurs have lost 15 games in the clutch. Three extra minutes per game by Duncan, (and Manu, and Parker) if he could handle it, would have likely changed the outcome of more than half of those games, making them never have to be decided in the clutch. If they won seven of those fifteen games they lost in the clutch (not an unreasonable guess, based on how they've done in past years) they'd be 39-11, even with the phoenix suns. The Spurs also are the most underachieving team in the league in terms of close games, by the pytagorean theorem of basketball, which also has them expected to be 39-11. At that point, they would definitely be in the running for a very valuable first place.

 

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tHe_pEsTiLeNcE @ Feb 10 2007, 06:45 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Actually three minutes by duncan would change a lot. The Spurs have lost 15 games in the clutch. Three extra minutes per game by Duncan, (and Manu, and Parker) if he could handle it, would have likely changed the outcome of more than half of those games, making them never have to be decided in the clutch. If they won seven of those fifteen games they lost in the clutch (not an unreasonable guess, based on how they've done in past years) they'd be 39-11, even with the phoenix suns. The Spurs also are the most underachieving team in the league in terms of close games, by the pytagorean theorem of basketball, which also has them expected to be 39-11. At that point, they would definitely be in the running for a very valuable first place.</div>Well, name those games and see how many minutes Duncan played in each. I'm sure if it was a close game throughout he would've played a bit more than 34 minutes...

 

We are getting off topic. In summary:Yao is a far superior offensive player, in almost every offensive facet, and scores more in the postThere is no statistical quantification but hype proving that Duncan is anything more than even with Yao on defenseYao's gargantuan offensive advantage combined with their even defense gives Yao the overall advantage, and by a not insignificant margin. with 11.6 points in the paint per game, compared to 9.8 by Duncan, Yao has a relatively large advantage in this region. Add in that Duncan is a mere 69% on dunks, whereas Yao is a perfect 100% clearly shows who shows the most will and dominance in the post. They shoot the same FG% despite the fact that Yao is doubled teamed far more and has less options to kick it out to. Yao averages 5 ppg more than TD, which could be more on a higher % if he had as many spot up shooters to pass to as T. Dot. Yao is an inferior rebounder, but as I alluded to it accounts for 1 point every two games so that doesn't overcome the rest Duncan's deficiencies.Overall, when you look beyond the hype, you see that when Yao gets the ball in the post, there is no player in the league that can stop him. Due to his lack of height and power, the same cannot be said for Duncan. Duncan is a great player, and a superior player to Yao Ming, but on pure post play, he does not touch the tallest man in the NBA.