The NBA’s Midseason Arms Race Is Upon Us (The Ringer)

Sure but let's say we pick up every third game. This means that in 30 games we are half a game behind.

From there on it will only be three to four games separating and why can't we move up right at the end provided we improve and play stellar?

I may not be following you 100% and maybe I am missing something?
If here are 5-10 games left to play in get season and we are in seventh, half a game behind Inc why can't we win he rest and make a last minute jump? Again only 4 games separate 4-7

 

@Orion Bailey ....so take the next 30 games. If the #7 seed (currently the Thunder) continue at their current pace, they would win 18 of those games. That would make them 41-28. Portland would have to go 25-5 over the same period to get to the same 41 wins. Sure, anything is possible but Portland would have to play insanely better than they have so far or OKC is going to have to decline quite a bit. Even if they were to just go .500 (which would be much less than they are doing now) that would put them at 38-31. Portland would then have to go 22-8 over the same stretch.

I just don't see that happening. It is too much of a departure from who they have been so far. Bad teams just don't get that hot unless they were without a star due to injury and they come back. Even then, that would be a monstrous improvement.

So there are 43 games left. If whomever is #7 were just to play .500 ball, they get 44-45 wins. Right now the #4-7 seeds are averaging over .600 with just 2.5 games separating them. To catch them by season's end (if the #7 seed plays worse), Portland has to win 28-29 games out of 43. If they play at their current pace, Portland would have to win 32-33 out of 43 remaining games.Does anyone see them doing that?

 

They did something similar last year though.

 

Yes they did but the teams around them were much worse. 44 wins got the #5 seed last year. At current pace, that would only be good for the 8th seed this year and would trail the #7 seed by several games.

 

Most teams above us have had relatively easy schedules that get harder as the session progresses. I expect 2 teams between 5-7 to finish out near .500

 

Great point. @TBpup, Have you taken into account strength of schedule?

 

How much do we want to bank on strength of schedule when Portland just lost at home to the Pistons? Aren't those the "easy" games that Portland was supposed to feast on going forward?

Strength of schedule is a real thing and it matters, but I'd be very skeptical of the idea that Portland is a good to very good team that just got undermined by a tough early schedule. They could have had a tough schedule and be a mediocre to sub-mediocre team. That's where I'd place my bets at the moment.

Maybe the Detroit game was a total aberration and we'll see them start crushing the bad teams, but the Detroit game looked a lot like the Dallas game and other games where they basically didn't look any better than their bad opponent.

 

I would say he pretty much did

 

More so referring to opponents strength of schedule, not ours.

 

That isnt discussing strength of schedule of our opponents though. That's just a what if.
Has anyone actually looked at the second half of the season for some of the top teams in the Western Conference?
I dont know, I am asking.

 

@Orion Bailey ....I haven't looked at SoS of other teams. Most of today has been spent putting together a 401K plan so only so much time to go around. Portland has had a difficult schedule but as @Minstrel pointed out, they have lost games that they should be winning. Games like getting beat by Detroit at home and getting blown out by teams like Denver somewhat invalidate the SoS piece from Portland's end.

The Blazers' schedule should get a little easier and other teams may get more difficult. But no matter what other teams do, Portland is quite a ways behind teams that have played nearly .600 ball for the first half of the season. The Blazers would have to win EVERY game against the <.500 teams and a more than a few against the Playoff teams to even think about getting to the #7 seed.

I just don't see that happening even if other teams fall off.

 

Saying the West has been tough in the past, while true is complete cherry picking.
Someone who does this is blatantly ignoring the down-trend in number of wins needed to make the playoffs
I'd be surprised to see the 5th seed above 46 wins.(said this before the season, say it now)
A couple teams are already starting to come down from the .600 pace that was being set by 7 different teams... And we're not even at the break yet.

 

Do-able but I doubt portland's ability to get to 46.
Hopefully I'm wrong.

 

Yeah, but opposing SoS doesn't matter too much if Portland keeps losing. There are no 15-game winning streaks to be had when you're even money against the Pistons and Mavericks of the world.

 

Yes, those are the easy games that Portland should win. But saying that these 5-7th seeded teams will keep up their current pace when they've been building that pace against weaker opponents and will start to face stronger opponents in the future, is wrong. They're pace, due to the soft early schedule and tougher-later schedule means that a current winning percentage of .600 means that they're ON PACE to finish around .550, just due to strength of schedule.

 

I'm just hoping we get the 6th seed. We could beat the Rockets in a first round series, and then we'd have confidence. Who knows with the Spurs and their older pieces.