The NBA’s Midseason Arms Race Is Upon Us (The Ringer)

I never claimed there wasn't great talent available in the lottery. If you go back to my original post, I clearly stated that I would not count on anyone we draft in 2017 being able to immediately step in and replace the production we'd lose by trading Dame or C.J. I also specifically said I can't think of a single player drafted in the last 3 years that has had a significant impact on his team's success.

Sure it happens, but CLE was right back in the lottery after LeBron's rookie year. Even the greatest player drafted in the last 20 years wasn't impactful enough to carry his team to the playoffs his rookie year - and there is no LeBron James or Tim Duncan in the 2017 draft.

Your list of All-NBA players confirms that it definitely takes players a while to reach that level of greatness. Of the 15 players you listed, not a single one of them was in their first 3 years in the league.

2015-16 All-NBA Teams:
1st Team
LeBron James #1 - 13th season
Stephen Curry #7 - 7th season
Kawhi Leonard #15 - 5th season
DeAndre Jordan #35 - 8th season
Russell Westbrook #4 - 8th season

2nd Team
Kevin Durant #2 - 9th season
Draymond Green #35 - 4th season
DeMarcus Cousins #5 - 6th season
Chris Paul #3 - 11th season
Damian Lillard #6 - 4th season

3rd Team
Paul George #10 - 6th season
LaMarcus Aldridge #2 - 10th season
Andre Drummond #9 - 4th season
Klay Thompson #11 - 5th season
Kyle Lowry #24 - 10th season

Again, I'm not saying top talent isn't available in the lottery, or that lottery picks don't have value (as either trading chips or for landing your future star player). My original point was, don't count on anyone we draft in 2017 to help this team win significantly more games within the next three years. If we trade Dame or C.J. we need to get proven talent in return, and not just draft picks, to help this team contend within the window of opportunity of Lillard's or McCollum's prime.

BNM

 

I don't think Lotto picks help get a team a lot more wins in their first few years either unless they are a junior/senior like Dame CJ where they can have more of an immediate impact. What I do think is picks will be assets to help in a trade and also help reset the cap issues that we have right now. POR is way over the Salary Cap and right up against the Lux tax which limits flexibility.

Since this team is doing so poorly as it is, getting more assets (needed by anyone's definition) to be able to make other moves with more cap flexibility seems like a good idea.

 

Wer'e on the same page. I said exactly the same thing in my original post:

"Now, if we want to actually improve, while Dame or C.J. (whichever we keep) are still in their prime, those draft picks can land the kind of proven talent that immediately turns a team around. That's the real reason to get excited about those draft picks. Sure, if we have more than one high draft pick, trade one and use the other to take a young player you can bring off the bench initially, who may someday be as good as Dame or C.J. Just don't expect them to be that good (if ever) until at least the 2019-20 season."

BNM

 

Mike Barrett.....is that you? Just teasing, but he always made it sound like everyone else in the league had an easier schedule than the Blazers at almost any time throughout the year. It can't only be Portland that's' had a tough schedule and naturally it all evens out in the end. There might be a slight difference but Portland is 7 wins behind the closest above .500 game after just 39 games.....and that is the worst of the over .500 crowd. SoS might mean a couple of games but they are almost half of their win total behind the closest target.

That is a significant difference.

 

Thanks for breaking this down. It makes my want to make the POs even less than I already did. Making the POs is the worst possible thing we could do this season (other than trading away both Dame AND CJ).

 

It sucks to be in a position where you come to the realization you need more help than what getting drilled in the Playoff would provide from an experience standpoint. This team was in 2 rounds of the Playoffs last year and it seemingly had no impact on this season.

This team needs additional assets, better talent and cap space and making the #8 seed as a below .500 team accomplishes very little on that list. If somehow they found themselves or a player broke out and helped make a difference, that would be one thing. But sadly, this team seems to be what it is. Yes, they started like this last year but if they are doing that again this year, that wipes out the progress they had in the 2nd half and the Playoffs and we are back to the wrong side of purgatory.

If they can make the Playoffs and compete, I'm all for that but right now, teams like GS and SA are destroying them where at least last year when they did lose, it was a close, competitive game in many cases.

 

Tunchi is smiling this season. I can hear him saying "told you, should just tank and hit the lottery". As much as I disliked tunchi he had a couple points. Not saying tanking is one but he had some points

 

I'm not for actively tanking but if WITH Dame playing league leading mpg we are at a .410 winning percentage, why not try developing the younger players a bit more if for not other reason than to find out what you have. It's not like it can hurt a lot at this rate.

 

Seriously, if we're losing AND playing like crap, we might as well throw major minutes at Vonleh in an attempt to salvage that dumpster fire of a trade.

 

Vonleh and Layman. There are few players in the league that can do what Jake did in his first ever quarter of NBA play. Of course that was garbage time and he got ridiculously hot, but to even get that hot is a rarity regardless of circumstances. Would be nice to see if there is more where that came from besides just 2 minutes at the end of a game.

 

This 10x over.
Last season, it felt like the Blazers had a good chance to beat any team in the league, and sometimes they did beat the best.
This season, we hold our breaths hopping our guys do not embarrass themselves against the bottom dwellers.

 

I don't know about vonleh,that's the thing. He has potential but how long will that take?

 

Now seems like a good opportunity to find out.

 

The thing is, we'll never know until we give it a try. What's the worst that happens - we lose to shitty teams? Welp, that's happening now and Vonleh is a total mystery. Maybe Neil is hoping that some other sucker of a GM will take what's behind Door #3, rather than letting them see that it's just some big doofus?

 

I'm down to try if we aren't winning which we aren't but I'm not stotts.

 

Find out what you've got as you know improvements need to be made. They went from the #8 pick in the Lottery to #15 with one win over the Lakers and a couple of SAC losses. Quite a difference.

 

Three Trail Blazers who signed huge offseason deals will become eligible to be traded on Sunday. Keep an eye on whether Portland tries to unload some of the salary it committed to Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless and Meyers Leonard.

Crabbe has kicker.
Hark is a keeper.

Meyers is the one who could be traded.

 

So the one with the least trade value. Well, don't expect much in return then.

 

A ball boy/Gatoraide getter, is fine with me

 

Paying Crabbe’s kicker this season would be waaaaayyyyy less than paying LT next season on Plumlee’s RFA contract.