Merged: blazers linked to serge ibaka

Proof? Link?

 

FWIW, these are "MY IMPRESSIONS" after reading about Ibaka on an Orlando forum. Feel free to add your own impressions.

As an individual player, Ibaka has been good to very good this season. He has done his job according to the O fans.

When you add in acquiring Biyombo, O added 2 savvy vets to their roster. BUT.

Trading good young prospects for savvy vets did not work out well for them. Orlando's record is worse this season than last season. What Happened?

Oladipo was inconsistent last season, BUT, he was a floor leader. His play and drive to win made the team better. Ibaka plays well, but he is not the floor leader Oladipo was developing into. Ibaka is a good starting caliber role player, but not a leader.

This is why we need to keep Dame if we pick up Ibaka. Ibaka would fit in very well with Dame & CJ, giving our team a good two way player and reliable 3rd scoring option. Without cutting into Dame's leadership, or Dame's & CJs style of game.

The O fans also had questions about Ibaka's real age? The question becomes, how much does Ibaka have left in the tank?


FWIW.

 

Can we just combine the Butler and Ibaka threads and trade Turner/Plumlee to CHI for Butler and Crabbe to ORL for Ibaka/Gordon.

There problem solved.

 

Why would you read what some fans of a team say about a player and actual think the opinions hold any credibility whatsoever. Have you not read the horseshit that is tossed around THIS joint?
Can you imagine if somebody somewhere said....."Well I was just on S2 and this one guy KingSpeed said THIS and BeerBoy said this, so it must be how it is." Good Lord!

 

In looking more carefully at Ibaka's numbers, I agree that this would be just like the Afflalo deal, except even worse since no contention push is happening. Not only is his once-highly-thought-of defense declining (like Afflalo's at the time), so are his overall production numbers (like Afflalo's at the time).

Ibaka is perfect type of player--but I'm no longer on board with trading valuable assets (like first-rounders) for Ibaka specifically. You're either giving those assets up for a rental in a non-contention season or else for the right to potentially pay him a bomb for his decline phase.

If Orlando wants to deal for "young players" like Crabbe and Leonard, that's fine. Of course, I put a very different value on them than some others here do.

 

Shut up rookie. Some of us are trying to collate whatever information is available into something that makes sense. Something you have never been accused of.

 

There are definitely some teams where Crabbe makes a lot of sense and, ORL is one of them. The 3-point shot has become such a vital part of the modern NBA game, that it's difficult to win without it. ORL is currently 28th in 3-point shooting. It's a glaring weakness for them. Crabbe may be third on our team in made 3-pointers, but he's made more than anyone on the ORL roster, and at a much higher percentage, too.

Crabbe's contract only looks out of whack as a bench player. Moving forward, his contract will be the new norm for a starter. So, can he start in ORL? I believe he can, and probably would. Because they overloaded their front court last summer, by trading for Ibaka and signing Biyombo, they have forced Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier to play down one position compared to where they played last season.

Just looking at basketball-reference.com and 82games.com, it looks like Fournier is pretty much a wash at SF vs. SG, with perhaps a slight edge to playing him at SF.

Gordon, is definitely better suited to playing PF. He is their youngest and best prospect (a month younger than Noah Vonleh) and playing him out of position at SF seems to be hurting his production and stunting his growth. Last year, at PF, Gordon had a PER of 17.0, TS% of .541, TRB% of 15.1, WS/48 of .139, OBPM of 0.6, DBPM of 1.2 and VORP of 1.8. This year, playing out of position at SF, he's down across the board, by a significant amount, in all advanced stats: PER = 13.0, TS% of .501, TRB% of 9.4, WS/48 of 0.60, OBPM of -0.7, DBPM of -0.4 and VORP of 0.3.

Forcing him to play out of position is killing his game. Last year. over 45% of his FGs were from 0-3 feet. This year that number is less than 30%. This year, he's shooting more from 3-point range (35% of his FGA) than he is from within 3-feet of the basket. Last year 13.1% of his made FGs were dunks. This year, that number is down to 8.5%. Playing Aaron Gordon away from the basket takes away his biggest strength, and his .302 3FG% is another reason ORL is 28th in the league in 3FG%.

If they had Crabbe, he wouldn't just greatly bolster their 3-point shooting, it would let them move Fournier back to SF and more importantly, by trading Ibaka in the process, let Gordon go back to his natural PF position.

In terms of roster needs, Crabbe to ORL makes at least as much sense as Ibaka to POR.

BNM

 

I'm not sure his overall production is in decline. What numbers are you looking at?
14.9ppg(second highest of his career) 48.5% from the field, 38.4% from deep, 82.3% from the line.
6.9 rebounds a game(his career high is 8.8 a game)
1.6 blocks a game.
He's no longer playing with a strong center that allows him to do what he does best, help defense.
He nearly averaged 2 a game with Adams/Kanter/Durant last year. He's never been a strong post defender.
Might not be the 2.5-3bpg he was when he was playing along side a position defense center.
Biggest thing about his game, is he's drifted further and further away from the hoop as he became a better shooter.

I'm not a huge fan of Ibaka due to his poorus post defense for a "big". It just hasn't really ever improved.
I don't think Portland is going to make a move for Ibaka, but still doesn't really look like his numbers are in decline, offensively.
And the defensive drop off from last year logically you could say it's because he's playing in Orlando. Not in OKC.

 

I'm looking at the overall trend of his advanced metrics. For the past 4 years or so, his PER, TS%, Total Rebound Rate, Assist Rate and Block Percentage have been on a general downward drift. Granted, this year he's seeing a bounce-back in some of those things (which Afflalo also saw in the half-season in Denver before Portland traded for him). For Afflalo, it was a dead-cat bounce and I'm concerned the same could be true for Ibaka in light of the trend of the three seasons before that.

His 3P% was also sinking prior to this season's bounce-back. But even in this "bounce-back" season, his Total Rebound Rate and Block Percentage are still way off his peak.

 

I totally like an Ibaka deal.

I don't think it's all that similar to the Afflalo deal. In that deal, we said "OK, Mr. starter, you'll never start again! We're a great team, so fit in and suck it up." In this deal, it's more like "OK, Mr. starter, you'll come in and be our featured big man. Our offense will fit you to a T. Yes, we suck, but we've shown a lot of potential and we're still the 3rd youngest team in the league. We have 2 all star caliber players. You're a big part of what we're trying to do."

I'm envisioning...
Lillard, CJ, ET, Ibaka, Plums
with
Davis, Aminu, Harkless, whoever
coming off the bench.

Frankly, I'm pretty damn excited by that lineup.

 

I kind of have to disagree with your analysis, as advanced stats and regular stats... He might be down-trending defensively, but not offensively.

His TS% this year is basically the same it's been for his entire career... Minus the one time in eight years he had a TS% of 61%
His offensive rebounding % has dropped, but this can be attributed to developing a three point shot. Moving further away from the basket. As he went from a 3 point attempt rate of .061 in 13-14, to .261 in 14-15. Which is the year his offensive rebounding % dropped from 10.0 to 7.0
His free throw rate also dropped in 13-14 which means he's just not inside enough to get offensive rebounds. Due to shooting threes/spotting up in the corner.
His defensive rebounding % has been the same his entire career. It's even better this year than it was when he was 22/23.
He's having a career year in assist rate at 5.9
His Per is back to where it was his second year in the league, not the 19+ he had before he started shooting threes. It's up from his previous two seasons.
His block rate has been on a downtrend since he had a career high of 9.8. The 13-14 season was the first time he played without Perkins for a significant amount of time. So he had to match up with the other teams best post scorer far more often. Can't help off as easily.
He's never going to be at 9.8 or heck even 6.7 like he was in 13-14. But two blocks a game isn't horrible.

 

There's also the rumor that he might not actually be 27, maybe more like 29 or 30.

 

Again, I stipulated that he's having a partial bounce-back season this year, but look at the three years before that. Everything was declining for three years straight. This is quite similar to Afflalo, who had been in decline for several years straight before reversing the trend for a half-season before Portland traded for him. That "bounce-back" proved to be illusory (a "dead-cat bounce"). I'm a lot more concerned by the overall trending downwards over multiple seasons than I am encouraged by half a season of better play.

 

Yeah, though I'm not sure if there's any evidence of that besides being from an African nation and his (overall) downturn in production. I'd be wary of using an individual's statistical career arc to make claims about how old he really is. While it's true that, on average, players show growth til around 27, hold steady til around 30-32, and then start declining, that isn't remotely precise enough to model how any single individual will age and using it to determine a player's actual age.

If there's other evidence then his career arc could be seen as supplementary evidence, definitely.

 

I only brought it up as a possible cautionary point about teams trading for him and then handing this guy a monster deal. Regardless of his real age, he's got a lot of miles.

 

Again, I gave advanced stats showing his offensive rebounding rate is down due to shooting threes starting at your specified year. Not hard to understand.
His ftr went down the exact same year.
Again, asked to play away from the hoop on the offensive end. Not going to get contact, not inside to get offensive rebounds.
Yet his defensive rebounding rate is far from a downtrend... Last year he had a career low, but two years ago he was at his career average, as well as is this year.
His block rate is down and will never be the same due to age and being asked to guard the best post player. Gave you that one.

Look I don't like Ibaka, but it's a huge stretch to say his overall numbers for the past three years have been in decline.
Especially since overall he had a career year for the year you say his numbers started to decline.

Spoiler

you and another poster with the blanket statements, jesus

 

That's fair about offensive rebounding being cut by his perimeter play on offense but his PER, TS% (scoring efficiency) and Assist Rate also declined year after year until this year. Those things shouldn't be dropping just because he shoots more from the perimeter, unless he's just not suited to playing out there. In which case, either he's going to continue being a "worse player" going forward or the Blazers need to stop him from being a shooter, which removes one of the biggest reasons to acquire him.

I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that his overall numbers have been sinking until this year. His rebounding numbers aren't much of a concern, as you note, but the rest certainly is.

 

The days of Iblocka are long gone. This guy is nothing more than a decent veteran who would be a rental and is going to get overpaid. Next.

 

It's not just Ibaka that's drifted further from the basket, it's the PF position, in general, league wide.

Just look at our team alone. The last time Serge Ibaka averaged 3 BLKs/game was the 2012-13 season. That year, LaMarcus Aldridge, Joel Freeland and Meyers Leonard combined to make a total of ZERO 3-pointers for the entire season. Back then, most teams started a traditional power forward. The stretch 4 was considered a novelty, a specialist, usually brought in off the bench for a change of pace when teams went small.

But the game has gotten smaller and more reliant on 3-point shooting and floor spacing. Duncan is gone. Garnett is gone. That year, the three power forwards who made 1st, 2nd and 3rd team All NBA (Duncan, Blake Griffin and David Lee) were a combined total of 5-36 from 3-point range for the season. Last year, Draymond Green (2nd team All NBA) made 100 3-pointers all by himself. Guys who used to play SF are now playing PF as the game has gotten smaller and even guys who used to be traditional power forwards have added the 3-point shot to their arsenal. Guys who used to be considered stretch 4s, who were relegated to the bench, because they didn't play "big" enough to start are now starters.

And, that has had a huge impact on Ibaka's BLK numbers. His biggest strength back then was as a weak side help defender. That's where he got the vast majority of his BLKs. As you noted, he has never been a great low post defender, especially against "traditional" low post physical power forwards. In today's 3-point happy NBA, most teams have a single designated rim protector, and it's almost always their center. With so many more PFs shooting the 3, the opportunities for weak side BLKs from a help defender are few and far between.

In today's NBA, defending the pick and roll is critical and Ibaka is an excellent pick and roll defender. He ranks in the 83 percentile defending the roll man and the 96.6 percentile defending the ball handler in switching situations. Compare that to Aminu and Harkless, our two best overall pick and roll defender. Aminu ranks in the 57.1 percentile defending the roll man, but only in the 6.5 percentile defending the ball handler. Harkless is the opposite. He ranks in the 65.1 percentile defending the ball handler, but is in only in the 10.2 percentile defending the roll man. Ibaka is a huge upgrade over either when it comes to defending the pick and roll. And, he is a more reliable 3-point shooter than either.

There is no doubt he'd be a huge upgrade over what we have now. The questions remain; what would he cost us and would he resign (assuming we can afford him)?

BNM

 

He's a perfect fit. He's a smart vet that can rebound, defend and hit the open jumper. Stop this undersized PF nonsense with Vonleh in the starting lineup.