2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

Strength of Schedule for remaining games:

DEN = .548
POR = .438

Of the 30 teams, DEN currently has the toughest remaining schedule (just edging MIN with an SOS of .545 for remaining games).

POR has the 3rd easiest remaining schedule, trailing only BOS (.395) and CHI (.424).

Still, you have to play the games. If we take care of business and beat the teams we're supposed to beat, we've got this.

BNM

 

No.

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/22/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 55.9%
Change = -8.1

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 66.0%
Change = -8.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.1-43.9
Change = -0.5 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 38.5%
Change = -9.0%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 53.5%
Change = -8.3%

After last night's loss to MIL, our odds of making the playoffs took a significant hit (-8.3%). That was a game the simulations obviously had us winning. The consensus is we will still make the playoffs, but it's much closer to 50/50 (53.5%) than it was before that loss.

CLE plays in DEN tonight. Both FiveThirtyEight (60%) and basketball-reference (53%) are favoring DEN in this one. Go Cavs!

BNM

 

Strength of Schedule for remaining games:

DEN = .547
POR = .437

BNM

 

We are now at a 46.5% chance to make the playoffs.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/23/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 46.5%
Change = -9.4%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 60.0%
Change = -6.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.1-43.9
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 31.8%
Change = -6.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 38-44
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 46.1%
Change = -7.4%

With Tuesday night's loss to MIL, combined with DEN's beat down of CLE last night, we are no longer the consensus favorite to make the playoffs. It's looking more and more like a dead heat with the entire season perhaps hinging on the head-to-head game against DEN in POR on 3/28.

With the way DEN is playing, we can't afford anymore let downs. We need to win ALL of the games we are supposed to win and hope DEN actually loses to some of the teams they are supposed to lose to.

We have three games between now and that head-to-head match up on the 28th:

Tonight against NYK
Saturday against MIN
Sunday @LAL

Those are all winnable games and we need to win all three.

DEN has two games between now and the 28th:

Friday @IND
Sunday against NOP

Those are tougher opponents than we are facing, at least on paper. IND has had a very unusual stretch where they have alternated wins and losses for the last 15 games. If the pattern holds, they are due for a win on Friday. Let's hope it does. NOP seems to finally have adapted to the addition of Cousins. They have won 5 of 6 and have had some double digit wins over some pretty decent teams, beating MEM by 13, MIN by 14, HOU by 16 and, of course, POR by 23. Let's hope they continue this level of play against DEN on Sunday.

BNM

 

Of course, we need to start by taking care of business against NYK tonight. FiveThirtyEight gives us an 84% chance of winning, and basketball-reference has us at 66%. We need this one (and the next two) to go into that game against DEN on the 28th with some momentum.

BNM

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page/BPI-Playoff-Odds/espn-nba-basketball-power-index-playoff-odds

Blazers - 53%
Nuggets - 45%

 

If we don't stay focus all 4 QT we won't make the playoffs. We can't have a 3 QT like we had last night because any half way decent team would beat us they just need stay focus. We will have to bring it against the T Wolves because there playing other teams very good.

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/24/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 53.0%
Change = +6.5%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 62.0%
Change = +2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.4-43.6
Change = +0.3 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 36.4%
Change = +4.6%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 50.5%
Change = +4.4%

After beating the Knicks last night, we are once again the consensus favorite to make the playoffs - but just barely at 50.5% odds. As expected, it's looking like a dead heat heading into the head-to-head game against DEN in POR on 3/28.

Both teams have two games between now and that head-to-head match up on Tuesday:

POR:
Saturday against MIN
Sunday @LAL

Both are winnable and we need to win both.

Tonight @IND
Sunday against NOP

Will IND's pattern of alternating wins and losses for the last 15 games hold tonight? Let's hope so, they lost their last game at BOS on Wednesday. The Pacers are currently tied for 6th in the East with MIL. The Pacers are 25-10 at home this season. DEN is 13-20 on the road. FiveThirtyEight gives IND the edge tonight at 60%/40%. Of course all this means nothing. They also had us beating MIL and DEN losing to both LAC and CLE. That's why they play the games. Go Pacers!

BNM

 

Twenty years ago (today Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play).

In 1996-97 the Suns were 7th seed at 40-42 and the Clippers were the 8th seed at 36-46. That was back when the first round of the playoffs was still best 3 out of 5 games. The Clippers were swept 3 games to 0 by the #1 seed Jazz. The Suns jumped out to a 2 games to 1 lead over the #2 seed Seattle SuperSonics before losing the series 3 games to 2.

Since then, there have been multiple #8 seeds in the West that finished the regular season at exactly .500, including HOU last year at 41-41.

BNM

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/25/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 41.5%
Change = -11.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 53.0%
Change = -9.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.5-435
Change = +0.1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.7%
Change = -8.7%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 40.7%
Change = -9.8%

With DEN refusing to lose, we are now facing a stiff uphill battle. We are no longer consensus favorites to make the play offs. With that big head-to-head showdown with DEN on the 28th looming on the horizon, we need to take care of business. We still control our own fate, if DEN wins out (other than losing to us on the 28th) and we also run the table, both teams finish at 44 - 38 and we own the tie breaker.

BNM

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/26/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 49.6%
Change = +8.5%

Projected Finish = 9th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 60.0%
Change = +7.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 38.9-43.1
Change = +0.4 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 35.9%
Change = +8.2%

Projected Finish = 9th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 39-43
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 48.5%
Change = +7.8%

Last night's win over MIN moved us back closer to even odds to make the playoffs. It also moved us closer to clinching the tie breaker:

• (1) Head-to-head won-lost percentage - Currently up 2-1 with 1 game remaining
• (2) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division - NA
• (3) Division won-lost percentage for teams in the same division - POR currently 8-3 with 5 games remaining (DEN, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA), DEN currently 5-8 with 3 games remaining (@POR, OKC, @OKC)
• (4) Conference won-lost percentage - POR currently 21-21 with 10 games remaining (@LAL, DEN, HOU, PHO, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP), DEN currently 20-24 with 8 games remaining (@POR, @NOP, @HOU, NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC)

So, we basically have the tie breaker all but locked up, but for that to matter, we need to catch DEN. We are currently 1 game behind the Nuggets. Both teams have 10 games left. POR has 7 at home and 3 on the road, and DEN has 3 at home and 7 on the road.

POR: Strength of Schedule = .472
DEN: Strength of Schedule = .531

DEN has a tougher schedule and more road games, but at this point, I'm throwing SOS out the window. As they have shown recently, we can't count on DEN losing to anyone. Plus as we get closer to the end of the season, teams that are locked into their seeding will rest players. So, what looks like a tough game on paper (and in the simulations), may not be. We need to take care of our business and win as many games as possible and let the chips fall where they may.

Starting tonight in LAL. We have the upcoming head-to-head game against DEN in Portland on Tuesday, but it's important we don't look past the Lakers game tonight. Losing any game we should win would significantly hurt our chances off making the playoffs.

DEN hosts NOP tonight. Both of these teams are playing well right now. DEN has won 6 of 8 and NOP has won 5 of 7. With Davis and Cousins, NOP care throw different looks at Jokic. Should be an interesting game. The game in Denver starts an hour and a half before our game in Los Angeles. So, I plan to watch as much of the NOP @DEN game as possible before switch over to the Blazers game against the Lakers.

BNM

 

Thanks for the great work you've been doing in this thread!!

My hopes:
1) I want the Blazers to finish 7-3 which would put us at .500. If the Nuggets play equal to, or better than that, they deserve the playoffs and my congratulations, too.
2) I'm also rooting for the Blazers to finish with a positive +/-. Currently we're -1.3, so probably won't get there, but -1.3 is the best we've been at since the beginning of the season.
3) Currently we're 11th in Ortg, I'd like us to finish top 10 (0.3 behind Minny)
4) Currently we're 25th (6th worst) in Drtg, I'd like us to finish outside the bottom 10 (won't happen), but at least finish ahead of the dregs (Kings, Tpups, which are 0.1 ahead of us right now)

 

2) We've improved our +/- to 1.0 in just one game against the Lakers, so it's possible to get there!

 

Anything is possible at the end of a season when teams tank , rest, or go all out. I hate to jinx it but it is hard to believe that Denver beats us based on the schedule.
9 games left for both teams. We have 7 home and 2 away. Denver has 2 home and 7 away............

Both teams will or at least should treat Tuesdays game as a playoff game. Should be entertaining.

 

I'm REALLY looking forward to updating this thread tomorrow morning. Man that game against DEN on Tuesday is going to be HUGE.

Fuck tanking! This winning shit is fun. I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a regular season game in late March.

BNM