2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Boob-No-More, Mar 11, 2017.

  1. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2008
    Messages:
    14,356
    Likes Received:
    14,432
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Master of Xen Foro
    Location:
    La Grande, OR
    I'm all for tanking and I'm keeping a close look at draft position.... Memphis Tanking and Cleveland Tanking :)
     
  2. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,037
    Likes Received:
    3,849
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Tuesdays game will have essentially a 3 game swing. If we loose, we'll be 1 game back. If we win, we'll be 1 game up with the tie breaker locked up (or essentialy a 2 game lead).
     
  3. BigGameDamian

    BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2012
    Messages:
    32,260
    Likes Received:
    12,705
    Trophy Points:
    113
  4. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yep, HUGE game.

    BNM
     
  5. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Well said. Since the Nurkic trade, CLE has fallen into a virtual tie with BOS, trailing all of GSW, SAS and HOU and MEM has fallen to the 7th seed in the West.

    I doubt if it happens, but I'd LOVE to see one of the 37-36 teams in the East catch and pass MEM. MIL seem to be the only one that has a chance.

    BNM
     
    Wizard Mentor likes this.
  6. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/27/2017:

    ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
    Projected Record = 40-42
    Change = +1 win

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 71.3%
    Change = +21.7%

    Projected Finish = 8th

    FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
    Projected Record = 40-42
    Change = No Change

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 83.0%
    Change = +23.0%

    Projected Finish = 8th

    Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
    Projected Record = 39.4-42.1
    Change = +0.5 wins

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 57.0%
    Change = +21.1%

    Projected Finish = 8th

    Consensus:
    Projected Record = 40-42
    Change = No Change

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 70.4%
    Change = +22.9%

    What a difference one night makes! With DEN falling at home to NOP and the Blazers taking care of business in LA, we are now, for the first time since I started this thread, the unanimous choice to grab the 8th seed in the Western Conference.

    In the 22 days since I started this thread, the consensus odds of the Blazers capturing the 8th seed have gone from 24.1% to 70.4% (+46.3%) and our projected final record has jumped from 36-46 to 40-42. On March 5th none of the three sites had us getting the 8th seed. Now all three do.

    Great jobs guys! But that can all be undone if we don't take care off business on Tuesday night against DEN. We have finally caught DEN. Now it's time to start pulling ahead.

    BNM
     
  7. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    122,799
    Likes Received:
    122,787
    Trophy Points:
    115
    Now we need to change this to our chances for winning the championship.
     
  8. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Too easy. All three sites currently have us at <1%. There has been no change since I started tracking our playoff odds.

    BNM
     
    Chris Craig and SlyPokerDog like this.
  9. Sinobas

    Sinobas Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2009
    Messages:
    14,608
    Likes Received:
    5,486
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If we beat Denver Tuesday, we effectively get a two game lead on them by sealing the tie breaker. After that, only chance Denver has is if Damian or Nurk go down with a season ending injury.
     
  10. Sinobas

    Sinobas Banned User BANNED

    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2009
    Messages:
    14,608
    Likes Received:
    5,486
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ok. .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%
     
    SlyPokerDog likes this.
  11. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    [​IMG]

    BNM
     
  12. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    Messages:
    58,575
    Likes Received:
    58,882
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Don't even go there
     
    Orion Bailey and Dougnsalem like this.
  13. The Professional Fan

    The Professional Fan Big League Scrub

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2008
    Messages:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    6,746
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    The West Coast Portland
    My fear is Nurk is going to try too hard on Tuesday and potentially disrupt our groove. Hope I'm wrong, but I'm sure he's chomping at the bit to prove something vs his old team.
     
  14. RipCityDSCPL

    RipCityDSCPL Could be worse, at least it's not Lonzo.

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2013
    Messages:
    3,822
    Likes Received:
    3,423
    Trophy Points:
    113
    [​IMG]
     
    SlyPokerDog and Orion Bailey like this.
  15. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    If that starts to happen, Dame and Stotts will rein him in. As enthusiastic as Nurk can be, he does seem to look to Dame for guidance. He loves playing with a strong leader. And if he starts to get out of hand, Terry can set his ass down and let him calm down for a few minutes until he gets his head on straight.

    That said, I do expect him to go at Jokic with everything he has. I don't think he as any strong animosity for Jokic, but I think he wants to show Denver's front office, their fans and especially Mike Malone what they gave up on.

    BNM
     
  16. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,507
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Honestly, I would be disappointing in Nurk if he tried anything less. I think most driven players want to show those who cast them aside it was a big mistake. I think he will come out a little crazy, settle down, and take them to town.
     
    RipCityDSCPL and Dougnsalem like this.
  17. The Professional Fan

    The Professional Fan Big League Scrub

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2008
    Messages:
    9,851
    Likes Received:
    6,746
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    The West Coast Portland
    LOL.

    It's been on my mind for a couple weeks, and now that we caught them, it's kind of freaking me out!
     
    SlyPokerDog and Dougnsalem like this.
  18. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    19,484
    Likes Received:
    16,084
    Trophy Points:
    113
    My fear is that the people in the arena catch an incredibly serious case of Nurkic fever. By the time this game is over 20,000 people might be speaking only Bosnian.
     
  19. PDXFonz

    PDXFonz I’m listening

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    19,484
    Likes Received:
    16,084
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Can't wait to see these after tomorrow regardless of outcome.
     
    Orion Bailey likes this.
  20. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2008
    Messages:
    14,356
    Likes Received:
    14,432
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Master of Xen Foro
    Location:
    La Grande, OR
    1) Now "only" need to go 6-3 to make it to .500
    2) +/- improved to -1.0 - there's a chance!
    3) Still 11th in Ortg.
    4) Improved to 23rd in Drtg, 8th worst. Sounds bad, but we were 3rd worst, so huge improvement. Only 0.5 pts worse than "championship contender" Cleveland.
     
    Boob-No-More likes this.

Share This Page