2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

Uh-Oh

 

FiveThirtyEight has already updated their predictions. They have us at 92% odds of making the playoffs.

They also predict our final record will be 41-41.

BNM

 

How sweet would it be to catch MEM and improve the draft pick we're getting from them that DEN threw in to get us to take Nurkic off their hands.

BNM

 

This game could really crush Denver's spirit and send them into 'tank mode'. I expect them to really fall off now.

 

Not anymore. Nurk fucking owned it in every way possible. Very, very proud of that young man

 

It would be cool, but our own draft pick is going down the tubes.
Right now, we get #15, #20, and #26.
The #15 will likely get worse. The others have a small chance at improving.

 

He doesn't play like he's 22!

 

Those picks are trade sweeteners now.

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/29/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 85.3%
Change = +14.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 92.0%
Change = +9.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 39.8-42.2
Change = +0.4 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 73.9%
Change = +16.9%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 83.7%
Change = +13.3%

Obviously, last night's win was huge and gives us a big leg up on securing the 8th seed. The consensus odds of the Blazers making the playoffs is now at 83.7%, by far the highest since I've been tracking it. What a difference two games can make.

Which will hopefully be a reminder to the team that their work is not done. Just two games ago, it was DEN that was in the driver's seat and the consensus favorite to make the playoffs. We can't have a let down after last night's emotional win. We need to keep taking care of business. Two losses to teams we should beat will undo the progress the team has made since last Saturday and would open the door for DEN to get right back in this race.

So, back to work against HOU tomorrow night. After playing the Rockets twice in November, we haven't seen them since. They beat us handily both times (by 15 and 16 points). Tomorrow should be a good test to see how much we've improved.

BNM

 

Blazers improve to 36-38:
1) Need to go 5-3 to get to .500
2) +/- improved to -0.9. Blazers have scored 8003 points, given up 8069. To get to even need to outscore our opponents by 66 points in 8 games = 8.25.
3) Still 11th in Ortg (0.3 behind Tpups for 10th)
4) Steady at 23rd in Drtg

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/31/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 92.4%
Change = +7.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 96.0%
Change = +4.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.5-41.5
Change = +0.7 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 84.1%
Change = +10.2%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 90.8%
Change = +7.1%

With last night's win over HOU, the Blazers eclipsed two milestones in their chase for the 8th playoff seed. For the first time, the consensus odds of making the playoffs are greater than 90%, and for the first time, the consensus is that they won't finish the season below .500. Which is an impressive turnaround.

The Blazers are currently one game below .500 at 37-38. On March 1, the team was a season low 11 games below .500 at 24-35. Since that time, they have gone 13-3 to climb within one game of .500 for the first time since December 13th. A win over PHO on Saturday would put them at .500 for the first time since they were 12-12 after beating MEM on December 8th.

More importantly, last night's win put the Blazers 1.5 games ahead of DEN, effectively 2.5 games ahead by virtue of owning the tie breaker, with 7 games to go. In just over a month, the Blazers have gone from losing the games they should win to winning the games they should lose (according to the odds makers). During the month of March, they had six victories over playoff teams with better records: OKC, @OKC, @SAS, @ATL, @MIA, HOU.

They still have several tough games left (@UTA, UTA, SAS, NOP), but let's hope they don't let up, that they lock up the 8th seed and go into the playoffs on a roll.

BNM

 

Thanks for doing these posts each game. I'm sure they have taken quite a bit of time, but they are appreciated. Especially the added little fun facts. Cool stuff to know....

 

Ditto. Love it. REALLY liked this:

The Blazers are currently one game below .500 at 37-38. On March 1, the team was a season low 11 games below .500 at 24-35. Since that time, they have gone 13-3 to climb within one game of .500 for the first time since December 13th.

11 games below .500 to start the month and it's STILL March. That is bad ass.

 

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/1/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 95.6%
Change = +3.2%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 98.0%
Change = +2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.5-41.5
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 89.5%
Change = +5.4%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 94.4%
Change = +3.6%

Just going through the motions on this this morning. Yes, DEN lost last night, but the bigger, and much sadder news was about Nurkic's injury. We will most likely make the playoffs, which I have always been in favor of. For selfish reasons, I just like having more Blazers games to watch. For the team, I wanted our young guys to gain post season experience, but now the most important young piece will be missing. Jusuf Nurkic has yet to experience one minute of NBA playoff basketball. I was excited to see him play, and excited for him to gain that experience.

The pro tanking faction can now say, see we should have just been losing on purpose all along, we'd be in the lottery and have a higher draft pick. Oh well, fuck that loser mentality. I thoroughly enjoyed the 20 games we got from Nurk and the way his presence energized the team and turned the season around. And, yes, our pick has most likely dropped out of the lottery. We will likely be picking 15, instead of somewhere around 10 or 11. On the other hand, both of our other first round picks have improved since the Nukic trade. The MEM pick has gone from 23rd to 20th, and could move up another pick or two and the CLE pick has gone from 28th to 26th. Not a lot to get excited about, but it has slightly improved the trade value of those two picks.

I will still watch the playoffs, of course, but something, a very big something, as in a 7' tall 280 lb something, will be missing. Get well big guy.

BNM

 

!!!

 

If i'm looking a this right we can lose the rest of our games and still make it in as long as Denver just loses 4 of their last 7.

 

Yes, that's correct. Our magic number is 4 - any combination of Blazers' wins and Nuggets' losses that adds up to 4 clinches the 8th seed for us.

BNM

 

There is one more option as well, if the pelicans win out and we lose out they get the 8th seed.