Event Friday is Big! (NBA draft drawing)

Should be a fun one to watch even if we only have two rookies on there.

 

I think we trade 1 pick or pick 1 Euro though.

But some of that depends on if players we like fall...

 

Step one: Keep the picks.

Step two: steal the Spurs draft board the night before the draft.

Step three: profit.

 

What do you have against our current towel boy? He has a lot of upside with good size and quick hands. Conventional wisdom says it takes boys longer to develop. If we're patient, in 4 years, we could have one of the top 5 towel men in the league. We already have our towel man of the future. Let the cake bake!

BNM

 

Which is what the author said:

Since the only way we could get a top 5 pick is via trade, it's the second bolded part that is more applicable to our current situation.

I quoted your post, but the rest is really about this methodology in general, and Olshey's option in the upcoming draft.

It's nice to see someone attempt to quantify the relative value of NBA draft picks. Of course, a large portion of superstars come out of the high end of the lottery, especially the top 3 picks, but history has also shown that the rest of the draft is a crap shoot. In each and every draft, there are plenty of players chosen between 6 - 14 that are total busts, and there are future stars taken between 15 - 30 (and often the second round, as well).

So, what he concludes makes sense, you're better off to have three picks between 15 - 30 than one pick in the 6 - 14 range. It's a numbers game. Given that historically, the odds of hitting a home run (aka: getting a superstar) between 6 - 14 isn't much better than hitting a home run between 15 - 20, you're better off with three chances to hit one out than one chance. With three picks, you also improve your odds of getting a double (future starter) and a single (role player) or two.

In any case, just looking at the numbers in the chart makes me wonder if Neil has a similar philosophy. Remember in his interview after the Nurk trade he said he just didn't see much difference between picking 10th vs. picking 15th in this draft? Well, whether or not he had a similar draft table, t's worked out exceptionally well for him.

Trading for Nurk killed our tanking effort, but it didn't really hurt our draft prospects as much as the pro tank faction would like to believe. Why, because that additional draft pick we got from DEN effectively offsets our own pick dropping out of the lottery. If he had not made that trade, at the time, it was looking like we would be picking in the 10 - 12 range. But, like us, several other teams, particularly in the Eastern Conference, made late season play off pushes. If we had not made the trade and continued on our current, at the time, trajectory, we would have drafted no better than 8th (we would have tied DAL for the 9th worst record, so likely drafting 9th or 10th).

His math might not be perfect, but assuming we end up with something like 15th, 20th and 27th, that's just as good, according to the table, as having the 8th pick. Plus we still have the option to bundle picks to move up, if we desire. Olshey got us our 3rd piece in Nurk, plus managed to preserve our draft value, while adding flexibility. That trade wasn't just a home run, it was a grand slam.

The quoted article was from 2015, so the author only used data up to 2010, so he'd have a complete five year data set to work with. The drafts since 2010 have not just reinforced his conclusions, they have strengthened them. Just look at the 2016 draft. If you sort the 2016 draft by WS, you will see that 4 of the top 5 players were taken outside of the lottery:



Now go back to the 2013 draft and do the same thing:



Or better still, sort by VORP:



If you had had the 15th, 21st and 27th picks in the 2013 you could presently have a starting front court of Rudy Gobert at center, Gorgui Dieng at PF and Giannis Antetokounmpo at SF. I'm not saying Olshey will hit a similar trifecta in the 2017 draft, it is after all still a crap shoot, but even if he just goes 1 for 3, it could really help our team going forward.

BNM

 

Will spend way too much time worrying about it later, but there are definitely prospects I like. I don't watch college bball, just the tourney and reading draft reports. On my radar right now...
Bam Adebayo, Justin Jackson.

 

Looking at Olshey's picks, all three rank higher than their pick in the draft (and eventually CJ will be a top 5 of that draft); that makes me hopeful he can hit a home run given enough swings.

 

I'd be fine going for Caleb Swanigan with the CLE pick. His freshman numbers were similar to Vonleh's, as are his physical measurements, but he really improved his sophomore year. He reminds me of Paul Millsap, another player we should have drafted late in the first round when we had the chance. He could push Vonleh in practice, and at the very least, give us a decent back up power forward.

BNM

 

What's your take on Bam?

 

I'd prefer Swanigan. He's a sophomore, but basically the same age as Adebayo. He's shorter and less athletic, but has a larger wingspan and comparable standing reach. What tips the scales for me is Swanigan is a MUCH better rebounder, and rebounding is a skill that seems to translate well from one level to the next. It also happens to be a skill that I value highly.

BNM

 

Swanigan improved significantly in all aspects of his game in a larger role as a sophomore. I like to see that kind of improvement. It speaks to a good work ethic.

Of course, Adebayo could show similar improvement, but the key word is could. Swanigan is more of a known quantity. Abedgayo may have more untapped upside, but I think Swanigan is a lower risk pick who is less likely to flame out. Plus, I think he can contribute sooner.

BNM

 

Is the first Denver sent us for next season?

 

No, they sent us Memphis's pick this year.

 

Ah. Right. Thanks.

 

With draft positions ir's not so clear cut that you will get a great or good player in top 7-8 but only a potential role player below 14. Giannis was taken at 15, Kings consistently picked bad players in top 10 and sometimes even top 5 - McLemore, Robinson, Stauskas to name a few. This draft looks well stacked though so I believe a few of late first round picks will make it in the league.

What worries me a bit is that Denver gave away the Memphis pick so easily. They have one of the best scouting networks around, going by their efficiency in the draft in recent years yet it seems like #20 pick had very little value to them.

 

That was a stupid trade for Denver. I don't think their GM parted with the pick because he was told it was a deep draft.

He really wanted Plumlee, and had to add a 1st to get him. I doubt its deeper than that.

 

The scouting team doesn't make the trade decisions. The scouting team got them Nurkic but the GM traded him.