Ahh, re-reading this thread, it was nice to find the one voice of reason, (well, Minstrel as well, he just took the time to write it out.) It's not good strategy to wildly over-pay bench-quality players. Just look at the situation we're in now, with Nurkic. The Blazers are likely going to have to dump servicable guys on reasonable contracts to avoid the luxury tax. If we had not signed Leonard/Crabbe/Turner we'd have some cap space to use this offseason. We could have 20 mil by just trading either Davis or Aminu. And don't pretend like any of those 3 are major factors in the Blazers success. Dame and fucking CJ carried this team almost every god damn night, and we weren't even a .500 team till Nurkic arrived. It's the stars that matter in this league, the role players really don't matter as much.
Explain eacactky how we would have benefitted from cap space again? Or did you forget how much free agents love flocking to Portland.
I'd rather have this franchise have cap space than be looking at mega luxury tax penalties. You know we're in the penalty right now and Nurkic is going to get a max deal next year right? Olshey has flat out stated he's looking to shed salary. And he's probably not going to be able to shed the bad contracts, he's going to have to shed more decent ones. It's also a myth around here that we can't land free agents at a decent price. Remember Andre Miller, Jamal Crawford, Brian Grant, several players have signed the qualifying offer with us even though their team matched. Even Aminu and Davis were decent signings (though they looked better in year 1 than 2).
We are in penalty though the tax isn't assessed until the last day of the season. You know that right? And if you have read what I've been saying all along you would realize I have been saying we should make trades to reduce salary long term not necessarily immediately. If we make salary dump trades we drop in talent and won't have cap space to replenish that talent. Our best bet is to continue to build from within and make trades that shorten the tax hit.
What's it matter if the tax is assesed at the end of the season? The salary dump still needs to take place to avoid the tax, a dump that wouldn't be necessary if we hadn't signed the bad deals in the first place.
Let's place our focus oaenting the past... that always fixes the problem at hand. Explain how we shed salary immediately... if we can't the being bent about it is a futile waste of energy. Tax for a year or 2 is Paul Allens problem, repeated tax issues are Neil Olsheys.
Ha, your original post is about the past, telling us all how Olshey didn't screw up. I'm saying he did screw up. Now you want to change the conversation. Fine. I say we probably are going to need to trade Ed Davis and Aminu for 2nd round picks. That will get us under the tax threshold this year. But next year their in the same exact boat after resigning Nurkic.
It's not just about the financial tax penalties, being over the tax apron is limiting our ability to improve our roster at this exact moment in time. Overpaying underperforming players is already hurting our team. When you see good players, that are at least as good, and in many cases better than Crabbe, Turner and Leonard signing for full non-tax payer MLE, and we can't even offer that, we're missing out on improving our team today. BNM
I'm not trying to change the conversation, I am saying that dwelling on the moves of the past in a negative manner doesn't really fix or change anything at all.
If you don't learn from your mistakes, you are likely to repeat them. I'm not saying we should dwell on them, but acknowledging they were indeed mistakes is the first step to avoiding similar mistakes in the future. BNM
So let's say Olshey didn't match on Crabbe and let him go last summer for nothing. That's $19M off of the Blazers' current $129.5M team salary for 2017, so you're now at $110M. Let's say he also passes on Turner ($17M) and Leonard ($10M) to save his cap space for this summer. He still signs Harkless because it would have been stupid not to after what he showed in the previous playoffs. Let's say he just fills out last year's roster with disposable players on short contracts. That puts the team salary at around $83M out of a $99M cap. So you've got $16M to use to go hunting for a needle-moving FA. $18.5M if you dump Pat. Who are you going to get with that money in today's NBA that's better than Crabbe or Turner, let alone both of them? Who are you going to fill the bench with on vet's minimum salaries? How are the team's prospects better in this alternative universe than where we sit now, given you now don't have any contracts to move in future trades like Crabbe or Turner will allow as time goes on and their price tags no longer are excessive? Edit: As others have pointed out, you also have to subtract the $3M in dead money for Varajao and Ezeli, and $4.5M in cap holds for the unsigned rookies. That leaves you in your alternate universe with around $9.5M in cap space, or $11M if you waive Connaughton.
@Schilly This thread is a Good try, but ultimately many of the people want to 1) forget how injured we were last season. 2) forget that we have one of the best Big 3s in the league. 3) remember that GS swept us, but forget that they swept Utah, Houston, and only a historic offensive outing prevented a sweep in the finals. 4) forget that we got the best center and all-around big man in the draft - reducing our need to use Biebs at all. 5) forget that they want high variance, but don't want the downside of high variance. 6) forget that we're the youngest team in the playoffs 2 years running. 7) forget how hard it is to get FAs to come to PDX, even with cap space. 8) forget how good Olshey is at drafting. Big hits on Lillard, CJ, and IMHO Collins. Hits on Crabbe and Swanigan. Biebs was a high variance pick the boards loves, but hates when it doesn't work out. 9) forget how good Olshey is at picking absurdly low cost gems from other teams such as Lopez and Plums. We should be celebrating, but instead we're bitchng. Top 20 players get traded or signed every year, but it's unlikely they'll end up at whatever team you're rooting for. I'm not saying there aren't legit concerns, like: 1) Olshey gambled that the cap would go up - it hasn't. 2) Our young players were supposed to get better - mostly they didn't. 3) Olshey doesn't have a great track record for selecting FAs (it could be argued that he shouldn't be signing FAs at all, and I'd be sympathetic!) 4) Because of these things, some of our "assets" are more ass than sets, and it, along with being above the apron, make it difficult to move players. 5) Because of these things, Olshey is hampered by making an "Olshey move" and getting a high quality player on the cheap. 6) We have too many "good" players, we need a 4th and maybe a 5th "very good" player. Where's the consolidation trade Olshey opined when he first came here? Arguably, this is the crux of many of the valid criticisms: Harkless: he's clooooooose, but he's not there. Improving in the offseason? We're praying for it. Aminu: Had a great year and this team can beat ANYONE (including GS) when he's shooting is on.... but last year he reverted. Hopefully, he'll unrevert, but many are not optimistic. Biebs: Not a candidate to be that 4th guy. After "50-40-90" passing the keyboard of several fans, he's reverted to being a non-NBA player. With the drafting of 2 bigs, he's been made obsolete. ET: When he's on, he's an extremely valuable bench player, but is payed like a starter. Doesn't shoot well enough for the modern NBA. Even optimistic fans don't think he'll become that vital 4th cog we need (but it's theoretically possible). Vonleh: Has put it all together on the defensive end - really good next to Nurk. Refuses to even look at the basket on the offensive end, if this doesn't change, he'll be replaced by Collins who has the makings of a good defender, but is an amazing shooter. Vonleh can shoot, so we'll see if he adapts and starts shooting and shooting well. If he does, he could become that 4th guy, but it may take more time... Collins: The great white hope can do it all - defense, rebounding, footwork in the post, amazing shooter, "determined". But..... he's a noob - will take time to adjust to the NBA game. He's only 19, and hasn't filled in yet, and at 7' 235 lbs is on the light side. Practices when he guards Nurk would be very interesting to watch. Will put it all together and become that 4th guy, but probably not this season.
Are you factoring in CJ's new contract? I don't think we would have any cap space, regardless of whether we signed Crabbe, Meyers, or Turner.
So I looked it up. A few websites had different numbers, mostly because they forgot to include Anderson Varejao's contract that we're still paying. With all of our current salaries (not including our new rookies) we have $134,329,497 in salary. Take out Crabbe, Turner, and Meyers and you would be at $86,731,545 in salary. Again, that doesn't include Zach Collins or Caleb Swanigan. If the new salary cap is $100 million, that would give us roughly $13,268,455 in cap. I'm not sure how the rookies factor into that space. Do they not count until they officially sign a contract? What's the deadline for that? Regardless, could $13,268,455 in space replace the production of Crabbe and Turner?
All 1st round picks get guaranteed contracts based on the rookie salary scale. Under the current CBA, their cap holds are 120% of the "standard" rookie pay scale based on their draft order. For Collins and Swanigan, that comes to about $4.5 million in cap holds. BNM
