Okay, I'll play. Golden State Houston (added Paul) San Antonio OKC (added George) Portland (Nurkic addition late season) Denver (added Millsap) Utah (without Hayward) Clippers --- Minnesota (added Butler) Memphis New Orleans (Cousins addition late season) If Hayward signs with Utah, I see them just above OKC. After GSW, HOU, and SAS, seeds 4 thru 11 could go in any order. I see at least 3 worthy teams in the West not making the playoffs. Wow.
LAC/MEM/UTA got substantially worse and will probably be out playoff contention unless other moves are made. HOU/MIN/OKC/DEN got substantially better. Everyone else remained the same. Take out UTA/LAC/MEM from the playoffs from last year. Add MIN and DEN. Still a spot left (for the Clips, prolly). I think our playoff seed is pretty secure, but I don't see an avenue for us to actually move up to HCA given the current situation.
The West got stacked in just 2 weeks elapsed time!!! Golden State - far above all others Spurs - standing pat still a 55+ win team OKC - (adding PG13 is going to be big for them) HOU - (CP3.1) Blazers - I'm figuring 10-15 wins better than last yr) Nuggets - (Milsap will help stabilize them) T'Wolves - (Butler, Teague, Gibson) Grizzlies - Gasol and Conley haven't forgotten how to play) Pelicans - the Boogie and Davis experiment Utah, LAC, LAL, PHX, DAL will battle for bottom seeds.
If we're healthy we're as good as anybody in the West outside of Golden State. I see no reason why we can't compete for the 2 seed.
Those problems didn't really exist when Nurk was healthy - as I recall, we were a top 10 defense. Once Collins acclimates, he can score from all over the court - post, midrange, 3. #would_love_to_get_a_confirmation
The first thing that comes to mind is that was supposedly the softer part of their schedule; they played some pretty bad teams. That said, I think he had a transformative effect on the way the team played and they had a couple of quality wins sprinkled in there too, but I don't think he turns them from .400 team into a .700 team. If he can stay fully healthy and motivated, then his addition might be worth 6 or 7 games, getting over fifty wins is going to require a pretty big improvement in the team's overall defense and Nurkic alone probably isn't enough to get there.
SAS not losing anyone? I mean, I guess technically (so far), but Pau is now 37, Ginobili (if not retired) will be 40. Parker is going to be 35 and coming off his worst shooting season since 2003. I guess that means more time for in-his-prime Patty Cakes, to go with Kawhi and LMA, but I don't see them at 61 wins. They have very few players in their prime, though Kawhi and Patty being 2 of them helps, but Green/LMA/Anthony as consistent starters with Gasol/Ginobili/Parker/Lee?/insert ring-chaser here being really old doesn't give me a ton of pause, while their younguns are pretty young. Calling them Top 3 is a Gregg Popovich Lifetime Achievement ranking. They may well get there, but it's not because "they haven't lost anyone from a 61-win team".
You're REALLY minimizing some solid wins against some good teams - many of them on the road. I'm not sure why. Remember, we were 22-33 before the trade. We were NOT a good team. We couldn't win on the road and couldn't win close games. Nurk changed that. No way does that 22-33 team beat OKC, ATL, MIA, SAS, etc, on the road prior to the trade. All those teams, and HOU, DEN had much better records than we did at the time of the trade. OKC was 8 games ahead of in the standings when we went into their building and punked them. MIA was 30-11 over the second half of the season and had won 10 in a row at home when we beat them at their place on the second night of a back to back on the last game of a 5-game road trip. That was a quality win against a quality opponent we would not have gotten pre-Nurk. I don't usually mention the refs, but if there was one game all season where the refs cost a team a game, it was that WAS game. That should have been a win for us against another quality opponent. You hope those things even out over the curse of an 82-game schedule, but in that 20 game sample size we got flat out got screwed out of another win. That's all ancient history. There is no denying the team was better after the trade. The only question that remains is how that carries forward. I'm not predicting 57 wins, or even 53, with the way other teams, especially in our division, have improved, but Nurk addressed so many of our weaknesses, I'm looking forward to seeing how much better we are this season than last. The last two years, we have gotten off to terrible starts and had to scramble just to make the playoffs. This year, I hope we get off to a better start so we won't have to rely on a late season surge just to climb back to .500. BNM
Tier 1 GSW Tier 2 Rockets - I think this will be a disaster if Carmemelol is traded here, so I hope it happens. Spurs - as of right now they've fallen back a bit. Aldridge looks to be leaving SA. Parker is coming off of a significant injury he suffered in the playoffs. Manu retirement is up in the air. Portland - Logic says they have to be more healthy this year. OKC - Portland almost always comes out on top in the season series vs the zombie sonics. Tier 3 Wolves - didn't solve their 4th quarter woes with the addition of Butler. Nuggets - I think I'm overrating this team but I figure I'll drink a little koolaide. Grizz - if healthy they could be in tier 2, but they've shown no glimpse of health the past 2 seasons. NO Clippers Utah Tier 4 Suns Lakers Kings
Why does logic dictate they will be healthier this year? Injuries aren't governed by some kind of annual cycle.
Imagine what a bloodbath this conference would be if Paul had stayed in LA and Hayward had stayed in Utah, keeping both teams in the 50-win neighborhood.
Considering portland played 15-20 games with a full & healthy roster it has to be impossible for that to happen 2 years in a row. Maybe logic is the wrong word, luck might be a better word for it. Portland has to have more luck this year with injuries.
I'll play along: 1. Warriors 2. Rockets 3. Spurs 4. Thunder 5. Timberwolves 6. Nuggets (tie-breaker) 7. Trail Blazers 8. Pelicans
