I hope Denver isn't this year's version of last season's Utah, where nearly everyone on this forum was united in contempt of them and the idea that they could be better than Portland and then they ended up being much better. I don't think Denver will end up smoking Portland like Utah did, but we should keep things in perspective a little rather than every single off-season predicting greatness for Portland and having no tolerance for anyone who predicts less than total global domination.
Who's predicting greatness for the Blazers? If you're referring to my post, I was just pointing out that it's pretty tough to say that a prediction of 4th place in a 5 team division is very generous. I suspect that BR thought the prediction was for 4th in the West. I'd say that the Thunder are pretty clear favorites in the NW Division and it's a pick-em situation for the remaining four teams. I think Denver will be good, but not better than the Blazers. I agree with BNM's asssessment of the division. Everyone is good, but every team also has flaws.
Well, since I was one of the few who actually believed the Utah hype at this time last year and felt their off-season additions would provide a big boost, does that make me the Punxsutawney Phil of the topic? If so, I would say Denver's off-season leaves me luke warm. Their roster has some decent pieces, but I see them more how most here see Minnesota (who I feel is a 2nd round team this year or they blow it up): adrift in the middle of the pack. They'll confound you some nights with duplicated hustle from Millsap/Faried/Plumlee, but have no rhyme or reason to their attack other nights.
I'm not referring to anyone's post specifically, though there are people saying that the Blazers could very well be the best in the division. There are also people finding the idea of Denver finishing ahead of Portland ridiculous, which bears eerie resemblance to how this forum (not every individual) treated Utah predictions last year. People get way too high on the team every off-season, which leads to a crash when/if they're not that great during the regular season which can make this board hard to read as people are putting fists through walls and others are talking about how Lillard is a loser. I find that cycle (overhype->kill all the players when they don't meet it) to be a little annoying, but that's just my view of things. If people were just overly high during the off-season, that would be fine ("fan" is short for "fanatic" and all that) but since it directly leads to trashing the team all year for not meeting their own poor predictions, that's a bit less cool for me. It just makes the forum less enjoyable to read then if people were a bit more level from start to finish.
I don't think it's at all crazy or even overly optimistic to pick Portland over Denver. I just think people are writing Denver off a little early. After they installed Jokic as the unquestioned starter, they were right with Golden State for the best offense in the NBA. Adding Millsap should help on both sides of the ball. It's possible that their defense will still consign them to mediocrity and no playoffs, but it's not outrageous to think they could end up anywhere from 5-8, IMO.
A lot of people didn't believe the hype on UT going into the season and where wrong. A lot also didn't believe the hype on MIN and they were right. I see DEN close to the latter (even with their addition) than the former. And DEN did lose a very good player.
They lost their leading scorer and have the weakest PG rotation in the Western Conference. They were 32-27 with Jokic as a starter. We were 14-6 with Nurkic as a starter. They added a good, but aging 2-way player, but didn't really address their biggest weaknesses. Sure they could finish ahead of us (which is what Bleacher Report is predicting), but I don't think it's likely. I also don't think our roster has been finalized. The deadline for waiving and stretching Andrew Nicholson is 8/31. The only reason to hold onto him is the possibility of using him in a trade to match salaries. And, we also have a $12.9 million trade exception. Neil isn't finished. They added Millsap (18.1 ppg, PER = 17.8), but lost Galinari (18.3 ppg, PER = 17.4). They added some defense, but sacrificed 3-point shooting. They finished 13-11 after the all star break. We went 18-8 after the all start break. We will have a full season of Nurkick. BNM
Denver is not last years Utah. Minnesota may be. I still think Portland is goid fir 2nd in the NW. I think they can battle OKC for 1st, but its going to be a hell of a challenge.
So, that begs the question: will the NW Division be the best in the NBA this season? If not the absolute best overall (no single dominant team), it certainly looks to be the most competitive division, without any weak teams. Forget the East. They already lagged behind the West and with this summer's East->West mass talent migration the difference between the two conferences will be more pronounced than aver. The Pacific Division has the Warriors, but the Clipppers have been neutered, LAL, PHO and SAC are all young and rebuilding. In the Southwest Division, HOU and SAS will be good (but, I don't think SAS wins 60 games this year), but MEM and DAL will be down. NOP is the wild card. They actually struggled after acquiring DeMarcus Cousins. It will be interesting to see if they can make the 2017-18 version of the twin towers work in the modern NBA. Regardless, I think, top to bottom, the NW Division will be the toughest in the NBA, with no easy wins against any opponents in that division. BNM
I think the Southwest is still the best just because it features two 2nd tier teams that would have been considered 1st tier teams in other years. MEM is on our level or better each year and i'm going to respect that for now. The NORTHWEST is just a bunch of 3rd tier teams until proven otherwise. I don't think any of the teams in the Northwest division are going to make it into the 2nd round of the playoffs.
The Northwest will definitely be the most competitive, IMO. It could be the best, but I think the Southwest will be tough, with two likely elite teams and then two hard-to-pin-down teams at the moment, in Memphis and New Orleans. Dallas, though, should be easily the worst team in either division.
It's all going to come down to our SF IMO. I feel good about CJ, Dame, Nurk, and even Vonleh. But the difference maker between 1st and 4th is having that two way wing. Ether Harkless or ET needs to step offensively. Personally I would give Turner the nod if he equals Harkless from the 3pt line during preseason. Turner IMO has a higher bbIQ and having the extra ball handler and passer on the floor is always a plus. They both weigh in around 220 And even though Harkless is two inches taller, ET actually has a longer standing reach. (Although Moe has better hops and a longer wing) Bottom line is there is not that much of size difference. It's just who plays better with the other 4. My guess is Terry will start Harkless and finish with both moving Harkless to PF to close out games. Either way we need him to step up this year....unless he is a Knick.
Huh, that's interesting. To me, PF is going to be the key. I like Harkless as a two-way wing, so long as he keeps shooting around 35% from three. He's not a star, but he plays good defense and can provide spacing. He's a good player. I don't think Vonleh is a good player and Swanigan and Collins (assuming he's given significant time at PF--Olshey's comments after the draft suggested they saw Collins, for now at least, as Nurkic's backup) are unproven. If they can get good play from the power forward spot, their starting five will be solidified. The bench would still concern me.
I did consider that, but to me I don't think any PF on this team is going to step up offensively. Not with Nurk on the floor. Nurk needs those touches down low. So I think Vonleh complements him just fine. If Swanigan or Collins steps up and beats out Vonleh....great, but IMO my point about an improvement on the wing is still the difference make on whether or not we finish 1-2 or 3-4 in the division. We need Harkless or ET to step up.
I think Swanigan or Collins could theoretically be a difference-maker alongside Nurkic. Nurkic needs touches in the post, Swanigan and Collins have the ability to shoot jumpers, complementing Nurkic's game. Vonleh theoretically has that ability too, but I'm not much of a believer in his. For me, the volatility at the 4 has the greatest potential to swing Portland's season--no one thing is going to, but the power forward position will be highest leverage, with the potential to be a zero for the team or possibly even be a strength. If it's a zero, Portland will struggle for a low playoff seed. If it's a strength, they may challenge for a 4-5 seed. I don't think the small forward position has that kind of swing volatility--Harkless puts a high floor on the position, it definitely won't be a zero on either end. I think small forward is going to be solid no matter what, whereas power forward could be good or bad.
Well if that is the case then I think I would have to lean towards us finishing closer to 4th than say 2nd in the division. I just don't think we can depend on rookies these days to make a difference as a starter on a playoff team. I am high on both of them long term, just not in their first year.
Yeah, that's why I'd lean more towards fourth than second--because I think power forward will be a major hole. I don't have faith in Vonleh and Swanigan/Collins are unproven and likely won't hit their stride as rookies. But if either can give the Blazers much, they'll be significantly better. They have talent, but how quickly they develop into good NBA players is a big question mark.
