Merged: Crabbe Traded to Brk

As I said, keep your eyes on the road at all times except for the occasional glance in the rear view mirror.

 

We can't really give the matching of Crabbe's contract a final grade until the TPE expires next July 25.

It sounds like you're assuming we won't use the TPE. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance we will. The question is on who and when? There are several inflection points between now and next July 25, when the TPE expires.

1) This off season isn't over yet. We could use the TPE to land a veteran 3 & D player like Courtney Lee or Jared Dudley from a team that is rebuilding. Something may still happen with Carmelo Anthony. Even if we don't get Carmelo, if he's traded, other assets may become available (Eric Gordon) with us acting as a facilitator.

2) Training camp - as teams further asses their rosters and needs, players that don't fit elsewhere may become available.

3) December 15th - when players signed as free agents this summer become trade eligible.

4) January 15th - when players re-signed by their own teams become trade eligible.

5) Trade Deadline

6) 2018 NBA Draft

7) 2018 Summer free agency period

It will all come down to how the team is doing and who becomes available. If the team is playing well enough at the deadline to be in the running for a top 4 seed, I think Neil will go all out and get the best player he can for the TPE, luxury tax be damned. If the team looks like it's going to miss the playoffs, I think Neil will look to use the TPE next summer, either on draft night or during the July free agency period. I do think constantly monitoring who's available and how they can help the team will be Neil's highest priority. He's still got almost 11 months to use that TPE. No need to use it prematurely just to use it. I'm sure Neil has a list of every player who makes less than $12.9 million and has narrowed it down to the 15 - 20 potential targets for using the TPE and will use it when someone who actually makes the team better becomes available.

BNM

 

Still seems like a pessimistic outlook. An optimist would be saying, I can't wait to see who we get with that huge TPE. We should be able to get someone even better than Crabbe, like Eric Gordon, Courtney Lee or Jared Dudley - an established veteran that won't wilt under pressure, be afraid to take a big shot with the game on the line, and disappear during the playoffs. And in Lee's and Dudley's cases, someone who actually improves our perimeter defense.

And like I said, we can't give it a final grade until next July 25...

BNM

 

Positive or negative outlook, we can't grade it until the TPE is either used or it expires.

There's also addition by subtraction. Crabbe being gone gives someone an opportunity to step up.

 

I don't think this is a case of addition by subtraction. We are clearly worse without Crabbe than with him. There is no heir apparent. And he wasn't a distraction or disruptive. So, other than monetarily, we aren't better off without him. Whether someone (Pat? Jake?) ends up being better than Crabbe shouldn't have an impact on how the trade is graded.
I'm not upset we don't have Crabbe - not by any means! But unless that TPE turns into something useful then Crabbe was a net negative for the Blazers.

 

Technically, at least according to 82games.com, Crabbe was a net negative while on the court (-4.6 net on court/off court rating and the team was -2.5 points/48 with Crabbe on the floor).

So, is losing him really a net negative? It all depends on who gets his minutes, either someone on the current roster that steps up or a player acquired with the TPE, and how they perform.

BNM

 

When Butters is gone by training camp and we have Melo, Lee, and O'quinn, we'll be better.

 

It's not crazy to assume PC or napier or a combo of both will pick up the slack from the loss of Crabbe's Herculean 10ppg. Cause that is really all he ever had to offer, 10ppg, we wont miss him one bit.

 

Looking at B-Ref Crabbe was better than everyone except those who you'd suspect at BPM, VORP, WS. When 2/3rds of the team has a negative net rating, and you get rid of the best of those with a negative rating, then I think it still qualifies as a loss.

 

I wanted to like the first part of this sentence, but the second part gives me pause...

 

It all depends on who gets those minutes. Perhaps we use the TPE on a true 3 & D player like Courtney Lee or Jared Dudley who replaces Crabbe's scoring, but also improves our defense.

Or perhaps, you give a guy like Connaughton or Layman Crabbe's minutes surrounded by higher quality teammates, and they play as well, or better than Crabbe in that role. Crabbe made his living on wide open catch and shoot 3-pointers. That was a by-product of the defensive attention his teammates commanded. Put someone else in that role and they may do the same.

Conversely, it will be interesting to see how well Crabbe shoots in BRK this year where he will receive a lot more defensive pressure than he did in POR playing next to a pair of 20+ PPG scoring guards.

BNM

 

I think the bigger story here is that Portland's roster is abysmal after the top four. Lillard, McCollum and Nurkic are great (or probably great in Nurkic's case) and Harkless is a nice complementary player--the rest of the roster is about as enticing as a bag filled with brown recluse spiders.

I'm hopeful that Ed Davis can bounce back from his horrendous season but, as things stand, this is the counterpoint to Olshey's Nurkic deal. A four-man roster that costs nearly as much as Golden State's.

 

Soooo

Butters, Hark, Davis

for

Melo, Lee, O'Quinn

And we're not a better team?

 

And when teams game plan for him. When you can't dribble or create your own shot then what?

 

This season? Sure. Next season? Probably not.
I'm 100% against trading Harkless for Melo.

 

But we already had Pat/Jake. Paying to get rid of Crabbe doesn't change that.
We paid to get rid of our best bad player - unless that TPE turns into a decent player, then the entire Crabbe experiment turned out negatively for the Blazers.

 

Yep, Crabbe was assisted on 97% of his 3-pointers last season. Good luck getting those kind of open looks in BRK.

BNM

 

My point is, given the same opportunity as Crabbe (lots of wide open catch and shoot 3-pointers when playing with Dame, C.J., Nurk, etc.) one of those guys might actually produce at a comparable rate.

But you are right. The value of matching the BRK offer sheet will be determined what we get for the TPE. I'm actually expecting we will get a better player who makes less money, but that's the optimist in me...

BNM