The thing that makes it seem like Nurk could average a higher number is that it seems like he could easily get 2 assists to Harkless and 2 assists to Vonleh every game. With the way Hark cuts and gets position around the basket it seems like 2 assists should be a sure thing. And then with Vonleh, the way Nurk pulls defenders away from Vonleh it again seems like he should be able to get two from Noah every night. And that doesn't take into account kick-outs for open 3s from CJ/Dame. Again, I don't think this will happen - but it seems like it should. It's weird.
As much as I'd love to see Nurk have an historic season (most assists by a center in 50 years), I'm going to stop short of expecting, or predicting, it. Keep in mind no one on our team, not even our starting PG, averaged 6 apg last season. Stotts' system relies on a lot of ball movement, which means the assists tend to get spread around. Nurk will get his share, but I don't think we'll see historic assist numbers from any one single player in the Stotts' system. And that's fine. As long as the team is creating lots of easy scoring opportunities, I'd don't care which individuals are getting the assists. While everything you say is true, also keep in mind the sample size was 20 games. This year, teams will have film on Nurkic in the Blazer system to use for scouting and game planning. Most in-season scouting in the NBA is about taking away a players strengths and forcing them out of their comfort zone - especially for the top 3 players on each team. As good as Nurk was in those 20 games, he was not perfect. He was very turnover prone and shot a fairly low percentage within 10 feet of the basket. Look for teams to try to take away the passing lanes and force him to put the ball on the floor more. In any case, he will be in better shape and will be more familiar with the system and his teammates - but the rest of the league will also be more familiar with Nurk in the Blazer system. He's not going to catch anyone by surprise or unprepared. And, it's an 82 game sample size, not 20 games. Any player can get hot and put up good numbers for 10 or 20 games, Sustaining that over the course of a full 82 game schedule is much harder. So, as I said, I'd be happy with 75 games of production comparable to the 20 games we got last year and I'd be thrilled with a slight up tick in his numbers to 16.5/11/3.5/2. Those are still damn fine numbers for your 3rd option. BNM
Opposing team's fans at the end of next season: "Nurk's #s aren't that great, our big guy's numbers are almost as good. It's that ALL of the other guys have stepped up their percentages and their defense, that's why the Blazers finished so well." S2er: "Why do you think ALL of those guys are magically having career years? I'll tell you why: Ju-sef Nur-kic"
Assists do require the other players on your team to hit shots, but yeah he should get 4 assists just dumping to cutters. Aprorpos of nothing, you should get an assist if the shooter was fouled and makes both FTs.
Eh - not really. We ranked #23 is APG as a team. We haven't had a player who truly excels at passing since Dre, and Stotts' system is so reliant on hitting long jumpers (or ISO) that passes don't get translated into assists at a very good rate.
What's the scouting report on Nurk, though? Do you double him or not? Do you fade off him at the top of the key knowing how well he drives to the hole? He's too good a passer to fully double, or even offer late help on because he can flip a pass at any point in his offensive motion; he's not like those guys (*cough*LMA*cough*) who stop interacting with the play when they begin their move. He's going to cause a lot of teams a lot of problems.
I was referring to the full season(s), not just the Finals, and the second quote indicates why. Numbers get pushed well beyond season-long averages when you start running your best play every time down the court in those high stakes settings. Hakeem "only" averaged 3.5 to 3.6 assists per game during those championship years.
I was just playing around with the stats a little more and the actual impact of the Nurk Effect is even greater than what I originally posted. The PPG, Points Allowed, and Difference numbers for 82 games INCLUDE the 19 games with Nurk as a starter. If you just look at the 63 games that he didn't start, the Blazers' scoring was about the same at 107.1 ppg, but the Points Allowed was a whopping 109.2. That means the net difference of the Blazers without Nurk was -2.1 ppg. That would have tied the Pelicans last year. So with Nurkic as a starter, the Blazers improved in total net difference by 6.5 ppg. Damn!
Also: Draymond Green plays a fair bit of center when they go smallball, and doesn't he lead that team in assists?
According to THIS he averaged 6.1 in the second half of the season (which includes only 8 games with Nurk). I'm betting he averages over 6 for the 17-18 season.
Nurk's assists will depend on the offense Stotts runs, because clearly Nurk can get shooters and cutters the ball. I 'want' Nurk to get 5 assists a game. For one thing, I love watching that style of offense. For another, I think the Blazers will be killing teams if he does. It was a joy to watch Walton and Sabonis pass the ball. Watching Nurk last spring gave me flashbacks.
Plums is a hard working player who's well schooled in coachable skills as a big man. I never thought of him as much more than a backup who deserves maybe 20 MPG on a really good team. Plums had a great attitude with us, and he was easy to root for. Nurk is a legit starting C in this league. I agree with HCP that having both outside and inside scoring gets us better spacing and better scoring opportunities. Nurk in the post is effectively an easy shot attempt. Those are an important part of a balanced offense. Nurk played really good defense for us, too. He also showed a nice jump shot for pick & pop plays as well as great court awareness and passing skills.
