Zach Lowe's Preseason Deep Dive

The whole thing is good, from a national-writer perspective, but I just chopped the Blazers' part out here.

Frankly, I don't think non-Rip City fans give enough care about what actually happened last year. Yeah, Zach says "if Nurk Fever lasts, they'll be better than (the average of all of last year, including starting Plumlee)". No one seems to be saying "hm, just swapping out one guy turned this team from a 33-win team to a 58-win team. Now that he's in even better shape and has an offseason of work with the guys, I wonder how good they can be?"

I'll have a detailed NW and West writeup later, but for those that haven't followed the offseason or just don't usually care about anyone except POR, it's a good primer.

THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE LEAGUE: THE WEST, 5-11
For a team steeped in continuity, Portland faces a lot of questions -- including who rounds out the starting five next to Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. With Allen Crabbe and his odious contract in Brooklyn, the Blazers have no choice but to use a ton of lineups, including the starting group, featuring three unreliable 3-point shooters.

Those groups are antiques. Scoring can be tough, even if the other two guys are among the most lethal pull-up artists alive.

Portland hopes to compensate by tightening a defense that sunk to 21st in points allowed per possession last season. They were much stiffer after acquiring Nurkic. They cut their foul rate dramatically, a trend that might be sustainable. Nurkic prefers to hang back against the pick-and-roll, allowing the rest of the Blazers to stick closer to shooters. Fewer rotations mean fewer reaches, bumps, and free enemy points.

Opponents also drilled 41.8 percent of open 3s, the third-highest such mark in the league. That number was somehow even bigger in 2015-16. Something beyond luck is going on, but Portland is due a little good fortune.

The Blazers are optimistic that Evan Turner, Lillard, and McCollum have worked out the kinks after an awkward start together. Lineups with all three outscored opponents by nine points per 100 possessions after mid-January, per NBA.com. Turner can handle, turning Lillard and McCollum into spot-up weapons, and all three can catch-and-go through tiny creases. Cramped spacing doesn't do as much damage to teams with three playmakers who slither through those corridors in rapid-fire drive-and-kick sequences.

If the Nurkic Fever lasts, the Blazers are better than the team that was outscored by 43 points last season. That still might not be good enough in the West. Egads.

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Again, from my post in the Clips thread...

preseason game 1: were up by 18
2: were up by 22
3: won by 28

pretty much, we're kicking a$$.

"worst 4Q defense in the league!1!"
"Can't hold a lead"

It's hard for me to understand how MIN, NOP, DEN and UTH, all of whom should be decent teams, did anything to overcome the Blazers average of last year--much less the a$$-kickery that happened when Nurk was in the lineup.

I think MIN is much more likely to be the SAC of the Northwest than a 5-8 seed. And that may be an insult to SAC.

BrianFromWA said:

"worst 4Q defense in the league!1!"
"Can't hold a lead"

It's hard for me to understand how MIN, NOP, DEN and UTH, all of whom should be decent teams, did anything to overcome the Blazers average of last year--much less the a$$-kickery that happened when Nurk was in the lineup.

I think MIN is much more likely to be the SAC of the Midwest than a 5-8 seed. And that may be an insult to SAC.

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So you're saying we flipped a switch with Nurkic in the lineup.

SlyPokerDog said:

So you're saying we flipped a switch with Nurkic in the lineup.

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More like we were trying to run our 240V offense on 120V, but once we switched Nurk for Plumlee and totally rewired the breaker, we didn't need a switch anymore.

I used to think Zach Lowe is a cool guy, but now Im really starting to think hes an asshole

Mr. Robot said:

I used to think Zach Lowe is a cool guy, but now Im really starting to think hes an asshole

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He's just another sportswriter trying to churn out material that gets enough viewer clicks to justify him staying employed. Putting out a pre-season column that pleases a bunch of fans of middling teams fills the bill. Getting classified as a Blazers homer doesn't.

I don't have an issue with his assessment. We don't know who is going to start alongside the big 3. It's fair to point to the continuity, since we have basically had a lot of our roster going into the 3rd season of rebuild.

It seems like Mo started last year for lack of anyone else. Aminu was a bit dinged up last season, and ET struggled to fit in (he had his lowest PER since 2012-13 last year).

Our starting PF, per ESPN, is Aminu with Davis as his backup.

Where Lowe is wrong, IMO, is that we have a lot of depth and players who can play multiple positions. Guys like Aminu, Mo, ET, and Davis do good things while on the court.

If we have to get it done by committee, we will. Lowe also gives little or no consideration to what the rookies might contribute.

http://www.espn.com/nba/team/depth/_/name/por/portland-trail-blazers

I doubt Noah Vonleh, as productive as he was when he played with Nurkic, will go from starter to 3rd string.

TBpup said:

I doubt Noah Vonleh, as productive as he was when he played with Nurkic, will go from starter to 3rd string.

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I like Vonleh just fine, and can't wait to see him grow some more. He's got plenty of ability and room, and he's still very young.

As a starter, though, he averaged 17.1 MPG. Technically a starter, effectively, 10th on the team in minutes per game.

The Vonleh injury totally sucked. That will set him back, even after he comes back. The Dame, CJ, Harkless, Nurk, and Vonleh starting unit seemed like the best fit. Especially if Noah had continued to get some confidence in pre season.

ET, Napier, Morrow, Aminu, and ED off the bench.
Although I assume CJ or Dame will be in there instead of Napier on most occasions.

Swanigan and Collins.....still yet to be determined. But eventually if they play right away , then slide one of them to PF and move Aminu to SF and Morrow to the bench. Depending on the opponent.

I think we're still closer to the end of last season (14-6) team with Nurk, than a 41-41 team with Plumlee.
Offensively, we're proving it this preseason. We can put up points in bunches. Question remains can we defend the opponent.

Utah and Clippers are both going to end up below us in standings. They lost too much over the summer. Only the T'wolves appear to me to be improved from last year. After Warrior's, Thunder, Spurs and maybe Rockets....we're in the group with Nuggets, Pelicans' and Grizzlies!

Mr. Robot said:

I used to think Zach Lowe is a cool guy, but now Im really starting to think hes an asshole

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What did he say that was so out of line? His recap of what happened last year and the team's issues seems pretty even-handed and mostly fact-based, and his forecast does seem to rest on whether or not Nurkic sustains what he flashed (whether that's because of health or otherwise). The West is going to be brutal this year; so even if the Blazers are better, it doesn't necessarily mean it's going to show up in the wins column, because theoretically there's a lot more competition to go through.

Harry's Raincoat said:

I think we're still closer to the end of last season (14-6) team with Nurk, than a 41-41 team with Plumlee.
Offensively, we're proving it this preseason. We can put up points in bunches. Question remains can we defend the opponent.

Utah and Clippers are both going to end up below us in standings. They lost too much over the summer. Only the T'wolves appear to me to be improved from last year. After Warrior's, Thunder, Spurs and maybe Rockets....we're in the group with Nuggets, Pelicans' and Grizzlies!

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The team wasn't 41-41 with Plumlee. They were 23-31. That's how much of a turnaround they made after the trade.

BNM

Part of me is curious how much of the good finish with Nurkic was just due to the newness/honeymoon period that you often see with an addition. I think we will know all we need to know by around Jan 1. Before that I’ll reserve judgment.

calvin natt said:

Part of me is curious how much of the good finish with Nurkic was just due to the newness/honeymoon period that you often see with an addition. I think we will know all we need to know by around Jan 1. Before that I’ll reserve judgment.

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It was also a pretty soft slate of teams, but on the plus side, they sprinkled in a handful of quality wins, so it's probably not all mirage

Wizard Mentor said:

Again, from my post in the Clips thread...

preseason game 1: were up by 18
2: were up by 22
3: won by 28

pretty much, we're kicking a$$.

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preseason game 1: were up by 18
2: were up by 22
3: won by 28
4: were up by 17

pretty much, we're kicking a$$.

Wizard Mentor said:

preseason game 1: were up by 18
2: were up by 22
3: won by 28
4: were up by 17

pretty much, we're kicking a$$.

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preseason game 1: were up by 18
2: were up by 22
3: won by 28
4: were up by 17
5: were up by 29

pretty much, we're kicking a$$.

Last game, ML, Pat, ET, Aminu, and Briscoe were better than Dragan Bender, Mike James, Tyler Ulis, Alex Len, and Elijah Milsap.

Though our guys played less than half a game's minutes (only ML was over 24 in that list), Bender, James, and Ulis all played 25+.

Granted, Phoenix sure looks like an awful team on paper.

calvin natt said:

Part of me is curious how much of the good finish with Nurkic was just due to the newness/honeymoon period that you often see with an addition.

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Yeah, unfortunately coaching sometimes makes it easier to defend a team. When we first got Nurk nobody knew how to guard him/us. But once he's integrated into Terry's offense, everything becomes much more predictable and therefore easier to defend.
Hopefully Terry spent the summer building a more robust offense that doesn't rely so much on freelancing and running 3-man weave outside of the 3-point arc.

Seems to me Stotts has been very good at molding the offense to fit the personnel. The offense does feature Nurk inside and did allow Plums to deal outside.

In preseason, he's not started the same lineup in any of the games, has he?

Rather than risk being labeled a clueless homer, I won't attack Lowe's assessment of the Blazers, I'll attack his assessment of another NW Division team - the Denver Nuggets.

Lowe has DEN ranked ahead of the Blazers (and MIN, UTA, LAC, MEM, NOP) in his ranking of the 5 - 11 spots in the West.

Sure they added an Eastern Conference all star to their roster by overpaying 32-year old Paul Millsap. Lowe admitted Millsap doesn't really play a position of need (DEN always seems to be stockpiling power forwards and short of small forwards). In terms of scoring, Millsap in and Galinari out is a wash. Sure, Millsap is a better defender and more durable, but again, not at a position of need.

After, experimenting with several starting line ups, Mike Malone settled on Wilson Chandler as the best fit at power forward next to Nikola Jokic. Well, toss that all out the window and move Chandler back to small forward, by default, because with Galinari gone, they really don't have any other option.

Lowe also admits that DEN has no rim protection and no solution at PG. Gee, aren't those two things every team needs to compete in today's NBA? DEN will easily have the worst PG rotation in the West (again), possibly the entire league. Emmanuel Mudiay still sucks. Old, slow, pint sized Jameer Nelson beat him out for the starting PG spot again last year. Well Nelson hasn't gotten any better, any taller, any quicker or any younger. Rumor is DEN will try to run Jamaal Murray at PG. Good luck with that. Murray is a tweener, best suited as a combo guard off the bench. He's still young but has shown no ability to run an offense or guard opposing PGs, a big problem in the West.

Sure, DEN will run a lot of heir offense through Jokic, but they still need someone to bring the ball up the floor and guard opposing PGs. I can see other teams trapping Murray, making it difficult for DEN to get into their half court offense. I can also see him getting lit up like a Christmas tree on a nightly basis by other Western Conference starting PGs. I don't see this going well. I expect this experiment to fail, which means another year of old, slow, undersized Jameer Nelson Manning the PG spot.

Sure, DEN added an Eastern Conference "all star" to their roster, but did nothing to address their two biggest needs, lack of rim protection and no real solution at PG. Yet, Lowe is strangely confident this will all work out in DEN's favor. I disagree.

BNM

.. and they created a light-weight "Nurkic" situation for themselves with Faried. Sure, he is a minus defender - but he still gave them 20 minutes and almost 10 points per game last year. I agree - Denver is likely to be as good as they were last year and not much more.

All of the things you say about Denver applied to them in the second half of last year (except they didn't have Millsap) and yet they had the most efficient offense IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. If you don't like that example of Denver hagiography, you'll hate this one:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20967758/how-nuggets-copying-warriors-championship-model-nba

Having said that, I think the team to watch is going to be Utah, partly because everyone thinks they're going to get worse without Gordon Hayward. I think they might even get better.

I think Utah would be better, also. I think waiving Briscoe moved us from 2 seed to 4th seed in my prediction. I think not bringing a dependable backup guard and waiving the only player close to it is rediculous. Sorry to repeat myself, can't help it. I think if we have to play Turner at guard as many minutes we play him at guard the worst we would be, and I'm hoping at least Pat gets real playing time. About the other teams, GS is for real, the other super teams? Houston was good not just because of Harden, they had very good role players, they still do, adding Chris Paul to the mix is nice but idk if moves them ahead of any recent Chris Paul team. OKC I think would bust, not out of the playoffs bust but not that good. Denver I think would be more or less OKC level. Minnesota is a question mark, could be fringe playoffs or higher, the Lakers would be much better, they made an awesome draft in Ball and Kuzma, the Kings I think would be better than expected and so are the Clippers

Homer newspaper, but still...

http://www.twincities.com/2017/10/1...t-minds-now-he-can-communicate-what-he-knows/

Blazer4ever said:

I think waiving Briscoe moved us from 2 seed to 4th seed in my prediction.

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Pure insanity.