I expect to see some movement by Portland before/at the deadline. Upcoming free agents, not enough money to go around, luxury tax, surplus of big men. The only surprise would be if Olshey stood pat. So what’s our roster going to look like? Who stays, who goes? I’ll play Nikola Mirotic becomes eligible to be traded January 15th. He wants out, it’s evident, and it’s in everyone’s best interest to move on. His replacement is already on the roster in Markkanen. The bulls are rebuilding. They have a hole at small forward. Mirotic to Portland for Harkless. Gives us a shooter off the bench who fits Stotts system. He has a team option for next season on his contract so it gives Olshey flexibility. Mirotic may also have a trade kicker, but we can probably get him to waive it. Phoenix is also a rebuilding side. Monroe and Len are both unrestricted free agents. They have cap space to absorb a contract. Meyers and Davis for Tyson Chandler. Add a second if need be. These two moves plus dumping Napier without taking any salary back gets us under the luxury tax I believe. I could be wrong. My post deadline roster: PG: Lillard, Baldwin SG: McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox SF: Aminu, Turner, Layman PF: Vonleh, Mirotic, Swanigan C: Nurkic, Chandler, Collins
Napier makes so little I don't think you move him. Even if you expect him to get a healthy raise (which he probably will) his value isn't enough around the league to give you a great piece. I would rather make a decision on him this summer. We may make trades in the off-season and could then afford him. I think the guy is becoming close to a keeper which is crazy but he is making his case. I agree there will be movement though. I think Davis is a lock to be moved although I have mixed feelings on that. I hope Meyers is. I would move Harkless in the right deal no doubt but I am not desperate for him to go like some other posters. I know the fun is in speculating who we might get but I will leave that to others. So coming back? Could be any 100 of players. I will saying going out from most likely to least likely is: Davis Meyers Swanigan (not because we want to, you just have to give to get) Aminu (only put him above Harkless because he will be wanted more by teams) Harkless Turner (ya, just dreaming here!) whatever.... just don't let it be Vonleh!
The OP likes Baldwin a lot. Baldwin has some upside of course but he isn't a better prospect than Napier.
Who said we’d get nothing? And we dump him because he’s going to get at least the MLE in free agency imo. Can’t see Olshey/Allen paying him that.
Baldwin is a pass first point guard who has hit 13.6% on total 3/22 from deep last season. In this Categorie he is trash. With the lack of shooting he is the last player we need and he doesn't fit in Stotts System. Yes he is young and could have some upside, but you can not wait on the upside of a player when your franchise player comes in his prime
Only in the sense that anything is debatable. Napier has already gone further this year as a prospect then people thought he had in him. His past profile also suggest that he is going to be the better player than Baldwin as he always has. Napier: 2× NCAA champion (2011, 2014) NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player (2014) Consensus first-team All-American (2014) Bob Cousy Award (2014) AAC Player of the Year (2014) First-team All-AAC (2014) First-team All-Big East (2013) Baldwin: Second-team All-SEC (2016) And this isn't me trying to put Baldwin down. I glad we took a chance on him.
Those accolades didn’t help him on draft night though. Baldwin’s physical profile makes him a better prospect. Teams don’t base their board on college accomplishments. I like Napier but Baldwin has the higher upside imo.
Agree to disagree. Physical tools are enough nowadays. That may have been the case in the past which is why people overdrafted players due to just them having the profile. Napier has the competitive fire to improve in his deficiency areas that I have yet to see from Baldwin. Maybe he gets it, maybe he doesn't. And once again, I need to reiterate that I glad we took a chance on Baldwin. But you don't jettison Napier because you think Baldwin could be that or better someday.
Im genuinely curious how you landed on that conclusion, because I don’t think I ever read anything about him being lazy or not a worker. The only negative I’ve read is that he has an attitude, but those are two different things. And those articles are all from his previous stops. I try not to judge players until they’re in Portland’s program. See Nurkic. And I’m not trading Napier because of Baldwin. Baldwin is just a roster filler this season and wouldn’t expect him to see the court.
Big difference between lazy and not having the competitive fire to the same degree that Dame and Napier have. Very few (maybe 10%) of the players in the NBA do have it at that level. That is what I am saying when I don't see Baldwin becoming the player Napier is. Because another player even with Napier's skills likely doesn't because it also takes that same mental makeup. Baldwin has time to work on it but has serious holes in his shooting game. So did Napier but the guy was a tireless worker and fixed it. It remains to be seen if Baldwin gets there. I hope he does. I want to keep them both and I think Napier will be the least of our salary worries this summer. Much more worried about Davis (although that is only if we keep him past the deadline and I don't think we will) and Vonleh. Bigs get overpaid.
So you’d rather hold onto Napier and hope no one offers him something we’re not willing to match? What would be the most you think Olshey/Paul would pay him? What do you think he’s worth on the open market? I know restricted free agents don’t get pursued as much but that’s because other teams don’t want to tie up cap space only to have their offers matched. I don’t think we’d hold onto Napier if he got the MLE.
Harkless for Mirotic makes a whole lot of sense. Both teams would be better because of it. And I honestly think that in a better system and organization Mirotic has starter level talent. I’ve seen too many games where he goes off to believe he’s a bust like they have him labeled in Chicago.
He is a 5 MIL per player. Both from our teams and other teams. So no I don't think we are going to need to match a big offer on him (unless you think that is outrageous, as I don't). And yes I think his production has warranted it. We have played better when he is the PG then when CJ is. CJ is not a PG. Turner is not a PG. Those experiments can't continue if we want to win imo.
5m sounds about right but I think there are better ways to spend 5m than on a backup point guard. For example I’d much rather take a chance on Hezonja with that money.
Stotts would love him. He shoots well. He is not a strong defender though. So the joke would be Stotts would love him there too if we were talking last year. This year the emphasis is on D so he would need to improve.
Backup PG (for our team) is one of the most important pieces. So disagree there. I am all for taking on people like Hez or Okafor who likely just need a change of scenery. But not at expense of a true backup PG. It is not coincidence in my mind that we play better when a real pg is playing at all time vs the games where we try to have Turner or CJ do it.
I don’t think the ballhandling is the reason we play better with Napier, it’s the shooting/spacing he provides. See last season except it was Crabbe. Besides in this scenario, wouldn’t we be in the luxury tax as repeaters?
Not because of Napier we wouldn't. It would be because we we didn't trade anyone at the deadline or before July. Napier makes peanuts and counts as peanuts this whole season. We are only repeat if we are over cap this year and next year. We are probably given over next year so spending money on Napier then doesn't matter. It is this year we need to get under and moving Napier is not needed. Moving someone who actually makes money is. Davis, Aminu, Meyers, Turner, Harkless. We have to either move the first two or one of the last three realistically.
