Trade Deadline Predictions

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Scalma, Jan 8, 2018.

  1. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    I don't believe it's 3.5m to get under the tax. I think it's actually a little less than 3. The teams that are close to the line aren't teams that have assets we'd realistically be interested in anyway.
     
  2. KeepOnRollin

    KeepOnRollin Well-Known Member

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    It is over 3. But you are closer. According to @42N8Bounce it is $3,002,579 we have to cut. I believe it is going to be harder this year because I think there are going to be many more teams who are trying to be "sellers" than "buyers". I would love to be wrong on that though.
     
  3. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    According to basketballinsiders it's $2,931,921. According to the ESPN Trade Machine it's $2,849,921. Not sure why there's a $82K difference.

    BNM
     
  4. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    As the trade deadline nears, it's probably good to know where the Blazers are at with the CAP/TAX situation. Here are my estimates:

    TAX Line: $119,266,000
    CAP line: $99,093,000

    Guaranteed Salaries:
    Damian Lillard , $26,153,057
    C.J. McCollum , $23,962,573
    Evan Turner , $17,131,148
    Maurice Harkless, $10,162,922
    Meyers Leonard, $9,904,494
    Al-Farouq Aminu, $7,319,035
    Zach Collilns, $3,057,240
    Caleb Swanigan, $1,465,920
    Ed Davis, $6,352,531
    Noah Vonleh, $3,505,233
    Jusuf Nurkic, $2,947,305
    Shabazz Napier , $2,361,360
    Pat Connaughton , $1,471,382
    Jake Layman, $1,312,611
    Anderson Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005

    Festus Ezeli (stretched), $333,333

    Andrew Nichols (stretched) , $2,844,430


    Total Guaranteed Salaries: $122,268,579

    Total over the TAX line: $3,002, 579
    This results in a tax bill of approximately $4,503,868.

    The problem isn't necessarily the financial tax bill this year. I'm sure Paul Allen can afford that. The challenge is when we look ahead at the next 3 to 4 years. With Dame at a max contract, CJ at a near max contract, Turner, Harkless and Leonard all locked in for the next 2 years at over $10M/yr, plus a potentially large contract for Nurk, the repeater tax could come into play very quickly. The repeater tax kicks in when the team was a tax payer in at least three of the four previous seasons. Then, instead of a 1.5x multiplier for the tax, it becomes a 2.5x multiplier.
     
  5. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Napier for Hood?
     
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  6. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Hood has become my Nurk from 2017. My #1 target.

     
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  7. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    Lol we called this a week ago, Hood being shopped before the deadline that is.
     
  8. BrunoSOC

    BrunoSOC Ripcity from Brazil

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    Hood for Harkless
     
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  9. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Why would Utah do that
     
  10. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    I'd do our first round pick for Hood. Either him or Oubre, same thing.
     
  11. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    They wouldn’t. Napier and Hood are probably of equal value but because of the need for SF in the league it would probably need to be Napier and a pick or taking back an unwanted contract of theirs while sending them a young player like Swanigan.
     
  12. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    What if we took on Rubio as well?

    I think they’d be interested in Vonleh. Would Vonleh and Napier be enough for Hood?
     
  13. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    My proposed trade for about a week and a half now has been Napier, Harkless, Swanigan and a 2nd rd pick for Hood and Rubio. But they could have their pick of Vonleh or Swanigan. Salaries are almost identical.
     
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  14. santeesioux

    santeesioux Just keep on scrolling by

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    Hood is a RFA, right?
     
  15. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    UTA is also looking to move Favors, and supposedly CLE wants him. There are rumors of a potential 3-team trade between CLE, UTA and CHI. Anyway we can get in on this?

    Something like:

    Favors to CLE

    Mirotic and Napier to UTA

    Crowder and Hood to POR

    Osman, Zizic, Vonleh and Connaughton to CHI

    Throw in/swap picks as necessary.

    CLE gets the 2-way big man they desire. UTA dumps two players they are looking to move, gets Mirotic, who they want and Napier, who they need. We upgrade our SF position immensely, without giving up any core pieces and CHI gets a lot of young, cheap players.

    BNM
     
  16. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    Cleveland could get more than Favors for Crowder and Chicago could get more than some no names for Mirotic, especially if they’re dead set on getting a first rd pick for him.
     
  17. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Which is why I said include picks as necessary.

    And no, CLE can't get more than Favors for Crowder. Favors is the better player and a much better fit for them than Crowder.

    BNM
     
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  18. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Davis would be a great fit with Cleveland and next to Love.
     
  19. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    David for Zizic!

    Get'r done, Neil! You lazy bastard.
     
  20. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Very quirky idea here:

    If we gave CLE Napier and Davis, and took on big contracts that helped them get under the tax, then could we manage a swap for the BKN pick? What would the swap have to be protected... Top 5?

    For example:
    CLE Gets: Napier, Davis
    POR Gets: Crowder, Zizic, Calderon, Rose + (TPE) Shumpert, Osman

    CLE saves $15.5M in salary (and apx. $50M total including the tax bill) and gets better and more balanced. This is a better lineup:

    Thomas / Napier
    Smith / Wade / Korver
    LeBron / Green
    Love / Frye
    Thompson / Davis

    That has to be worth a lot in return value. We would be over the tax but we would have our starting SF for the next 3 years in Crowder at a cheap contract (3 years, $18M), and could trade away Harkless/Leonard/Aminu to get closer (or if possible), under the tax line.
     

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