No, he has two years remaining on the four year deal that Olshey signed him to in the memorable summer of 2016.
The problem with this is that you expect the team to get better without giving up anything of value. Blazers fans think to much with emotion and not with logic. Trading Noah, Mo, and Shabazz will not change the outlook of this team. You can’t get emotional and have 10 players You don’t want to trade. Also, there is something called buy low and sell high... Ed Davis’ value is at its high point right now... he can actually bring back value in a trade, then Vonleh can step in and probably get you the same production in similar role. Going back to my original point, everyone should be on table to make this team better except for Dame, Collins, and maybe Pat because he will not cost much to keep and probably doesn’t have value around the league. Players to offer in trade: CJ, Ed, Nurk, Shabazz
Neil Olshey is under a lot of pressure here. Blazers are finally playing well, in a season that has been balanced by a parity not forseeable. The Blazers have a chance to make a run for home court in the playoffs. Yet, the roster is very unbalanced and will likely not fare well in the postseason. The Blazers are cram packed in the front court with: Jusuf Nurkic Zach Collins Ed Davis Meyers Leonard Noah Vonleh Caleb Swanigan Nurkic and Collins will likely stay put. Though Nurkic has struggled, unless the Blazers can move him and some other pieces for a next tier player, its not worth trading him. There isn't much better then him out there that teams are willing to trade. Plus he's a RFA so the Blazers can match for him this summer. Collins has shown a lot of promise his rookie season. No doubt teams will be calling, but Neil shouldn't trade him. Ed Davis is going to get paid this summer and he probably won't be a blazer next season. I really like Ed, but Neil is no doubt listening for offers. I wouldn't be suprised to see him traded before the deadline. Meyers Leonard is Olshey's biggest fuckup, and Neil knows he has to try and find a way to get rid of that ugly contract. Problem is Neil can't afford to stretch yet another contract, and will look equally as bad tacking picks to Meyers to get him out of a Blazer jersey. As much as I would like to see Meyers gone, and as hard as Neil is likely trying to sale him to other teams, the Blazers are probably stuck with him. While I wouldn't be suprised to see him shipped off, I'd be suprised if the Blazers get something worthy out of it. Noah Vonleh has been pushed to the end of the bench by Aminu. Sucksville. I like Noah and I think he has potential. I think he should have played more this season with Aminu at the 3. Personally I would keep him, but his identical twin Caleb Swanigan won't fetch anything on the market and keeping both doesnt make sense. Look for Noah to be headed out. Swanigan might be used as filler in a trade at the deadline, otherwise hes staying put. Harkless and Aminu are interesting. One of them will likely be gone at the deadline. Probably Harkless, though the Blazers could probably fetch more for Aminu. Evan Turner needs to be traded, even if he is playing better. That gargantuan contract and his struggles don't make trading him any easier. Its not going to be cake for Neil to move him. But, you know Neil is trying. Pat Connaughton has been an almost pleasant suprise. He has played better than expected and I'll give him his due, but he is inconsistent and unreliable. The blazers badly need an upgrade at both the 2 and 3. Jake Layman, I agree, has little to no value and unless he for some reason is used as filler then he will stay at the end of the bench. Shabazz Napier is highly tradable but he has been a beacon for the Blazers this season. I think it would hurt more than help to trade him. That said he may be gone. CJ McCollum is a tricky one. There is no doubting he makes a hell of a back court combo with Lillard, but there is also a lot of weakness there. He could be a valuable trade asset, but I am not sure what better the Blazers could bring back. Lillard of course is the franchise player and is going nowhere. Any team that calls for Dame will get laughed at. With Dame having sat down with Paul Allen, the heat is turned up for Neil Olshey. Allen thought Lillard was going to ask to be traded, but Lillard wants help. He wants upgrades. But, the Blazers despite having one of the largest team salaries don't have a lot to offer. You can bet Neil is sweating, working the phones trying to find deals that benefit this team. Good luck. Ring. Ring. Better get that.
https://twitter.com/HolyBackboard We typically record a monthly podcast on Sunday and it's out Monday.
Part One Response: I'm a bit of an outside-the-box thinker on this one. First, the facts: Salary cap/Luxury Tax threshold 2017-18 (A): $99.093M / $119.266M 2018-19 (E): $102M / $123M Current salary cap hit: $122.198M, or $2.932M over. That doesn't take into account Baldwin and Wilcox, b/c 2-way contracts don't count against the cap, even if they "max them out" at ~$280k. Free Agency Assumptions: Ed Davis: slightly more than the MLE….3/$27M, starting at a little over $8M/yr Noah Vonleh*: slightly less than the MLE…3/$21M, starting at a little under $7M/yr Jusuf Nurkic*: 4/$72M, starting just over $16M/yr (I personally think this is way too low, but many others disagree) Shabazz Napier*: Wild card, but also like Ed just above the MLE…3/$32M, starting at $10M/yr. Pat Connaughton*: Mini-MLE-ish…3/$16M (starting just under $5M/yr) *-restricted free agent (“matchable”) Draft Pick Assumption #20 pick, paying 20% above slot (of $1.803M) for a total 2018-19 starting salary of $2.164M. We are sending our 2nd rounder to either SAC or DEN. Trade Facts: You can send $5.1M in cash out in trade this year (including the draft) and 5.3M next year. Overall thoughts: I think it makes a lot of sense to try to get under the cap line this year, without sending out a 1st. Currently Noah+(Layman or Swanigan) would do it. As would obviously Ed, Chief, Meyers, Moe and ET. Don't send out draft picks! As we are about to see, we're gonna need them. Additionally, assuming you don't waste the pick on a bust, you generally get "surplus value" from a player while he's on a rookie deal, in addition to the RFA process that allows you (should you choose to) to have a player under your control for 9 years. Still really high surplus value. We can only send out 5.1M a year in cash to sweeten the deals/buy picks. And lately, you can't even buy firsts. If you could, you couldn't get them around the late-teens/early 20's where we're going to pick. (As a reference point, GSW paid 2.4M for the #38 pick). So keeping the pick has much more than a 5.1M value. So what do we do at the deadline and going in to free agency? Option One: Pay everyone, get our draft pick, pay someone the MLE. Build up the assets. Analysis: One thing we’re NOT doing, is keeping everyone, adding a pick, paying all of our RFAs and using the MLE. That would put us at 18 players (including the 2 2-way players) and you can only have 17 (if you have 2 2-ways). So you are stuck with the choice of who you either don’t sign (Pat?) or get rid of even while paying him (Jake?). The Team Salary with everyone re-signed (Layman as a roster casualty, but the cap number still remains) becomes: $167,408,664, $44,408,664 over the tax threshold, for a payment of $160.352M. Total payroll + tax would be $330M. Um, no. (And that’s the non-repeater tax!) other options coming up. Talk amongst yourselves.
Not sure I can add much as others already pretty much covered it. But I will say that Dame going to Paul, essentially asking for help, may have solved some of the “tough decisions” on the team. The pressure has been put on and I think everyone in the organization knows it’s crunch time in terms of building a roster to compete during Dames prime. What I mean by that is if there are players on the roster (Aminu, Ed, Bazz) that you would like to keep around but they could bring value in trades, you now might have to move them to at the very least show you are making an effort to improve the team and change the status quo. I hope for big changes at the deadline but just don’t see how it can get done unless things just really heat up.
Option Two: Other end of the spectrum Just as an exercise, I went through to see what the bare minimum we’re starting with. The following are guaran-Sheed: Dame, CJ, ET, Mo, Meyers, Chief, Zach, Swanigan, Layman. Plus $5.09M in dead money to Varejao, Nicholson and Festus. $112.01M. Still well above the Cap (no Free Agency for us, unless by exceptions), but under the tax by about 9M. At at least 3 roster spots to fill. But what happens if we: -Renounce the cap holds of our FAs and RFAs: Ed (12M cap hold), Noah (10.5M cap hold), Nurk (8.8M cap hold), Shabazz (7.08M cap hold), Connaughton (unsure which type of contract he signed, could be anywhere from 5M to max) -Don't include our draft pick (assumed traded away) Analysis: So this is what happens if no one is traded (except the 1st round pick) and all FAs are renounced. We’d still need to shed ET’s contract just to get below the Cap, and to get rid of Meyer and Mo to have any type of appreciable room. So let’s just say for giggles that we traded away our 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 1st-rounders to get rid of the contracts of ET, Mo, and Meyers. We’d still have $74M on the books (enough to give a $28M starting salary to a FA). I don’t think that’s happening, and I’m not sure it’s the best use of space anyway. And I don’t see PA being the type of owner to give up the talents of Nurk, Shabazz, Noah and Pat for nothing if he can match them. Ed controls his own destiny…he can go wherever he wants and we can only offer him higher raises (8% instead of 4.5%). Bottom line: We may eventually get to the point where we can bring in an impact player, and it may even be a free agent. But to do it like this?
Option 3a: Nurk Forever (Part 1) As you may have seen so far, Nurk’s cap hold is actually much smaller than his projected salary would be. In a dream where we strip the team down of all exceptions and cap holds (except for Nurk), we have his cap hold of $8.8M going against our cap number. We then have about $19M in space for free agents, and then we sign Nurk to his 16- to 18-ishM deal after the fact. That gives us a cap number of about 113M, easily below the lux tax line. Option 3b: Nurk Forever (Part 2--In non-Dreamworld, we don’t get to get rid of all the contracts.) Keeping the Core Contracts (Dame, CJ, ET, Mo, Meyers, Chief, Zach, Caleb, Jake, #20 pick, 5.09M in dead money) and adding Nurk's $16M projected starting salary puts us at $130.2M, not only over the tax line by 7M or so but also above the apron (Larry Coon can tell you why that's a big deal right here). And that's before we go shopping for a backup PG or backup wing or backup PF/C (remember, Pat and Shabazz and Ed are gone). Technically we still have the MLE if we want it, but at that point the 5.5M MLE will cost PA (salary and tax implication) 16.2M or so, and do you want to spend 16M on someone who's on a 5M contract? Analysis: While 3a is intriguing and a definite "All-In" moment (you're gambling on Dame/CJ/($19M FA)/(Aminu/Zach)/Nurk to be the core for at least 3 years, since we're not going to be able to rebuild through the draft or collect FAs) I don't see it happening. It would be exciting, and signal that NO and/or PA really likes this team or thinks we can get veterans to come hear on the vet min contracts, but these likely aren't going anywhere. We're likely going to have to give something valuable up.
This thread could be titled, "How can we possibly keep McCollum?" It's easy. Just get rid of Layman, Swanigan, Connaughton, Napier, Nurkic, Collins, Vonleh, Davis...Nope, still doesn't add to enough. https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/POR.html You guys sure make life complicated. You'll come around eventually.
I am fine moving him in the right deal. But how are you trading CJ without bringing back a comparable salary (or salaries)? We get it, you think he is paid too much (and ya, he just might be) but trading him most likely just puts someone else paid a lot in his place.
That's for you brains to figure out! Total payroll can be decreased over several trades. I don't expect to see it, but it is possible to do.
Expiring contracts are never at their "high point" unless they're bad contracts, which Davis certainly isn't. But what do you realistically think we can get for Davis? Btw, talk about falling in love with players, you must love Vonleh if you think he can replicate Edl's production!!
It's not that I'm emotionaly attached to any of the players. I'm looking at the long term cost/benefit for each player. Generally the trade deadline is a huge letdown. Not many opportunities available
Every time a thread like this pops up. I'm reminded why I'm glad some of you have zero ability to decide the future of the franchise.
