Game Thread GAME# 74: BLAZERS @ PELICANS - MARCH 27, 2018 - TUESDAY, 5:00 PM (PST), NBCSNW

We were 7-10 at home initially

 

I'm pretty sure @Darkwebs just listed the injuries from the time he made the thread and usually updates it when new info becomes available. The Blazers haven't announced an injury report for the Pelicans game yet.

Nurk and Davis are fine and not injured. I'm guessing Turner and Napier will be questionable.

 

Three tough games, one moderately easy game and two easy games. Should come out of this at least 3-3 and lets hope for 4-2 or better.

 

Terry does not know the word Double

 

The way the Blazers are playing defense lately, they don't need to double AD. Nurk and Ed will make him work for his 30, and take away the 2nd and 3rd options. I see the Blazers winning this game somewhat easily.

 

Did you lift those photos off the internet? They aren't blurry enough to have been taken by you!

BNM

 

Damn Portland has a lot of players with minor injuries listed this game.

 

MY GAMEPLAN FOR THIS GAME:
We win this game if we defend well. Here is how I would matchup across the board:
Holiday / PG - Harkless
Rondo / SG - Lillard
Moore / SF - McCollum
Davis / PF - Aminu
Okafor / C - Nurkic

- Holiday is a PG who is bothered by length, and has killed us in the past. Since they start two PGs, and a 6'5 SF with their other SF options being mediocre non-threats, we should match New Orleans substitution patterns and always have Harkless on Holiday. Not only is this the best one-on-one matchup against Holiday, it also allows switch-ability between Harkless and Aminu on Holiday-Davis pick n rolls. This is crucial to slowing down their pick n' roll because, while Holiday isn't a great 3pt shooter, he can get extremely hot from there, and he's not a guy you can go under screens on.
- With Rondo, we can give him space on the 3pt line, but we shouldn't give him a TON of time to set up his 3pt shot, which we did last game. He can hit wide-open 3s, so we need to make sure we at least lightly contest any 3s he takes. With Rondo-Davis pick n rolls, we don't have the luxury of switchability, as Lillard on Davis is a mismatch that they will exploit every single time. We should never switch this pick n roll. Instead, we should have Aminu stay attached to Davis and have Lillard go under screens if they're tight, and over screens if there's enough room (basically, if Rondo doesn't rub his shoulder off the screener). Don't go under a screen 3 feet below the ball-handler. However, Lillard needs to be ready to recover to contest Rondo's 3, as last game he hit a couple because we allowed him to shoot wide-open looks.
- With their poor perimeter group, we have the ability to play all three of our guards together and not get burned defensively. Playing off both CJ and Dame has shown to cause outstanding production from Shabazz, so running with a 3-guard lineup could be a good idea in order to (hopefully) get Bazz going, as he's struggled lately. Holiday, Rondo, and Moore are three 6'5 or shorter guards, and I feel like McCollum guarding Darius Miller wouldn't be a problem. They do have Solomon Hill back but... I think CJ would be fine on him as well. DeAndre Liggins? Larry Drew III? Ian Clark? Hah! We could play whatever perimeter combinations we want to, unless they play Mirotic at SF (which they haven't done and don't have the interior depth to do).
- It's questionable if Mirotic plays, but if he does, I think Collins is a great defender to put on him. They've been playing him at C for 26% of his minutes since joining the team before the trade deadline, according to Basketball-Reference. Collins has the length to bother Mirotic's 3pt shot as well as the lateral quickness to stay in front of Mirotic. Cheick Diallo and Darius Miler have been playing the 4 when Davis, Mirotic, and Okafor playing minutes at center. Turner could play some PF, as he could definitely handle Miller, and Diallo is only 6'9 and raw offensively. Our rebounding would be a question mark but a lineup of Bazz/Dame/McCollum/Turner/Collins would be a potent offensive unit that wouldn't get burnt defensively. That's a group that's built to run and play in transition.

Essentially, we can approach this game in a variety of ways. In the end, it comes down to stopping (or slowing down) Davis and Holiday. Harkless+Aminu on both is the best way to do so, and with their small, uninspiring crop of SFs, we can hide CJ on that position and use the length and solid perimeter defense of Turner and Harkless to slow down Holiday. We can throw out a bunch of different lineups regardless of size and be fine, so offensively, we can ride with the hot hands and the best offensive lineup possible, so long as we have Aminu and Harkless on the floor WHEN BOTH of Davis and Holiday are on the floor as well.

 

I don't think Nurkic plays more than 20-24min in this game. They'll play Davis a lot at Center and Nurkic is a bad defender to put on such a dynamic, mobile player. I expect Aminu and maybe Collins to get some run at Center guarding Davis.

 

Whether, or not, Mirotic plays will change the strategy considerably. If he plays, we will need some length on him, mostly Aminu and Harkless, along with a few minutes from Collins. That will mean more minutes of Ed Davis guarding Anthony Davis. That's fine in the post (well as fine as you can get trying to guard Anthony Davis), but scares me with The Brow's ability knock down jumpers. Ed isn't really comfortable chasing players on the perimeter. If Mirotic doesn't play, we can use more of Aminu and Harkless on Anthony Davis. As you noted, without Mirotic, we really only need to focus on stopping Davis and Holiday.

BNM

 

I don't think it means more minutes of Ed guarding AD, I think it means less minutes for Ed in general. At the center position, I expect 20-24 minutes from Nurkic, 12-16 minutes from Ed, and 8-16 minutes from Aminu and/or Collins. Even if Mirotic doesn't play, that just means more AD at Center, more undersized small-ball stretch 4s, and less Ed Davis.

I expect something like this:
Lillard (22) / Napier (26)
McCollum (26) / Lillard (14) / Turner (8)
Harkless (26) / Turner (14) / McCollum (10)
Aminu (24) / Harkless (8) / Turner (8) / Collins (8)
Nurkic (22) / Davis (12) / Aminu (8) / Collins (6)

Lillard & McCollum - 36min
Harkless - 34min
Aminu - 32min
Turner - 30min
Napier - 26min
Nurkic - 22min
Collins - 14min
Davis - 12min

 

I see what you did. We call that a comedic comeback. Well done FAMS.

 

You watching this Grizz game? Not as easy game as most assume. Especially coming off a back to back.

 

We'll see. I'm not as high on Nola as you are but I know our guys better take them seriously. Our guys will and we'll beat Anthony Davis and his band of misfits. GO BLAZERS!!!

 

I would love to see first team also. But i agree this looks like second team to me. I'm thinking he would just take that as another challenge.

 

This is the way i think also.

 

It's interesting the way you rag on Stotts continually?
Even after winning 14 of the last 16 and having showed double's at key points in a number of those victories. If by some chance they get past the second round. Entirely possible by the way.... It will be widely considered his best coaching season yet. This after making a couple very unexpected runs into the playoffs in recent years. Even this year can be considered totally unexpected as this team has totally destroyed most expectations to this point. Or are you going to jump on the "They only are good because of injuries" wagon?

 

Nice write up.
The Pels are scoring a resounding 113 points per game at home in March. With over 28 assists and essentially 50% FG shooting. My thinking is they will have to let Davis get his and completely shut down the rest. I would look for Davis to score 40+ tonight and have this become a very high scoring event hoping the Blazers can be in position to take it at the end. Blazers need to score a lot of points to win this game. Looking for 115 or more. Just the way i see it.