2018 NBA Playoffs - What the "Experts" are Saying

Thought I'd start a thread about what all the media types are saying about the upcoming NBA post season. I'll start the ball rolling by posting a couple links, with quotes relevant to the Blazers vs. Pelicans first round match up. Please add additional links and comments as you find them.

2018 NBA Playoffs: The Biggest Questions For Each First-Round Series

By Ben Golliver - Sports Illustrated:

2017-18 Net Point Differential Between First-Round Opponents

• Raptors +7.2 over Wizards
• Rockets +6.3 over Timberwolves
• Sixers +4 over Heat
• Celtics +3.9 over Bucks
• Warriors +3.1 over Spurs
• Blazers +1.3 over Pelicans
• Jazz +0.9 over Thunder
• Pacers +0.5 over Cavaliers

7. WILL ANTHONY DAVIS FINALLY BREAK THROUGH?
There are some striking parallels between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis as the two young superstars enter the postseason. Like Antetokounmpo, Davis is searching for his first playoff series win. Like Antetokounmpo, Davis played at an MVP level during a turbulent season. (The former lost coach Jason Kidd and the latter lost DeMarcus Cousins.) And like Antetokounmpo, Davis must be happy with his playoff draw.

Just as Antetokounmpo will avoid LeBron James, the top-seeded Raptors and the surging Sixers in the first round, Davis had to like what he saw once the dust settled on Wednesday night. His Pelicans won’t have to face the league-leading Rockets, the Warriors (who swept them out of the 2015 playoffs), or the red-hot Jazz. No need to keep up with Houston’s insane offense. No need to deal with Draymond Green. And no Rudy Gobert lurking around the hoop to break up lob passes and challenge dunks.

Instead, Davis draws the Blazers, who lost five of their final six games and will struggle to counter his length, agility and overall offensive polish. New Orleans split its season series with Portland 2-2, after going 1-3 against Houston, 1-3 against Golden State and 1-3 against Utah. What’s more, the Pelicans have an All-Defensive level point guard in Jrue Holiday to deploy against Blazers star Damian Lillard.

Portland deserves to be favored due to its superior depth of talent and its quality offense/defense balance. But Davis has been waiting six years to make real noise in the playoffs, and this is easily his best shot to date.

Early Thoughts on the NBA’s First-Round Playoff Matchups

By Rohan Nadkarni - Sports Illustrated:

(3) BLAZERS VS. (6) PELICANS
Anthony Davis is in the playoffs for the second time in his career, while the Blazers are hoping to continue the success of a strong second half. These teams are pretty evenly matched, with both entering the last night of the season with 1.8 net ratings. The Pelicans have found life in a post-DeMarcus Cousins world by relentlessly feeding Davis and inexplicably letting Emeka Okafor anchor their defense to solid results. Nikola Mirotic has added a nice spacing punch in New Orleans, and lineups with Davis at center are thriving. Portland’s success is predicated on its defense, but I’m curious how it will hold up when the Pelicans spread the floor. The role players are going to be important here. If the Blazers’ wings hit their threes, they become nearly impossible to beat. Meanwhile, Dame and C.J. are liable to win a game themselves by going supernova from three. I’m excited for this series, and I’m really tempted to pick the Pelicans.

More to come...

BNM

 

NBA Playoffs 2018: 1st-Round Bracket Predictions and Odds for All 16 Teams

By Andy Bailey - Bleacher Report:

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans


Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

The Portland Trail Blazers finishing third in the West has to be near the top of the list of this season's surprises, but maybe we should've seen it coming.

Damian Lillard has been on the fringe of superstardom for a couple years. He was bound to break through at some point. And this season, he did.

Lillard averaged 26.8 points, 6.5 assists and 3.1 threes, and he has a strong case to line up next to Harden as a First-Team All-NBA guard.

And he's had plenty of help from C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Shabazz Napier on the way to this position.


Anthony Davis has had an MVP-caliber season (though he's not likely to sniff the actual award), but once you get down to the fourth, third, or maybe second matchups, Portland takes over.

The fact that the Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league won't hurt them either.

Prediction: Blazers in 6

BNM

 

I like this. More fuel for the underdog fire that Dame thrives on so much.

 

Series preview: Lillard, Davis won't bear all of burden in Blazers-Pelicans series
Role players most deliver for Portland or New Orleans to advance

By Shaun Powell - NBA.com:


Jusuf Nurkic (left) and others face the task of keeping Anthony Davis under wraps.

Two years ago, the Blazers reached the Western Conference semifinals by taking advantage of an LA Clippers team that lost Chris Paul and Blake Griffin to injuries. This time they get the Pelicans without DeMarcus Cousins. Some teams get all the breaks.

The Blazers are bringing virtually the same squad from 2016, but boast a more energized Damian Lillard -- a big-shot maker who’s coming off a regular season that will surely get him some Kia MVP love in the ballots. They lost twice to the Pelicans during the season, but Cousins played both of those games.






Stats to know for the Blazers vs. Pelicans first-round series.
Undoubtedly, the Blazers’ front line will have its hands full with the other guy, Anthony Davis, another Kia MVP candidate, who dragged New Orleans (20-8 since Feb. 10) to the postseason with monster performances over the last month. But having his big-man tag-team partner by his side would’ve made a huge impact in this series. As it is, the Blazers and Pelicans will be decided by the supporting cast surrounding the two stars. There are a handful of capable candidates on both teams to fill that role, yet the playoffs tend to cause stage fright. Who’s ready to take a stand?

3 quick questions and answers

1. Can Jusuf Nurkic bring out the Bosnian Beast? He was a smash hit initially after being acquired from the Nuggets 14 months ago, then cooled considerably the first few months of this season for Portland. He has averaged 14.5 points and 12 rebounds the last two months, however, and must show even more spunk against Davis.
2. Can Rajon Rondo be a factor? Usually, guards with no shooting range would automatically be dismissed in this discussion, but Rondo goes against that notion. Last year his all-around game was just shy of brilliant for the Bulls in a near-upset over the Boston Celtics in the first round. And his floor direction is key for the Pelicans and allows Jrue Holiday to play off the ball. Rondo vs. Lillard, two tough competitors, will be good theater.
3. OK, who needs this more: Davis or Lillard? Both are accomplished players and still in their prime, so they’ll likely get additional chances in the future. But this is only Davis’ second playoff appearance, and first since 2015 (when he lasted four games). He has no idea what May basketball feels like. Does he finally have the help that’ll get him there?

The number to know
13.6 -- The Pelicans were 13.6 points per 100 possessions better with Jrue Holiday on the floor (plus-5.7) than they were with him off the floor (minus-7.9). That was the third biggest on-off differential among players who played at least 1,000 minutes this season. The bigger difference was on defense, where the Pelicans allowed 112.3 points per 100 possessions (a rate much worse than the league's worst defense this season) when Holiday sat. When he was on the floor, they allowed just 103.1, and when he played point guard, they allowed just 100.6. Against Portland in the regular season, Holiday was a minus-20 in 75 minutes when he shared the floor with Rajon Rondo or Jameer Nelson, and a plus-18 in 74 minutes when they were both on the bench and he was the point guard. -- John Schuhmann

Making the pick
This is a series with two massive stars leading otherwise ordinary teams that are capable of streaking in either direction. It all depends on how Davis and Lillard impact the series, but also the defense (for Portland) and 3-point shooting (for New Orleans) -- in addition to other factors. Assuming that CJ McCollum and Holiday bring their usual consistency, the situation begs for an unexpected hero, be it E’Twuan Moore or Evan Turner or Nikola Mirotic. The Blazers are a bit deeper and hold home court advantage and those could be difference-makers in a matchup that’s hopelessly even, allowing the Blazers to prevent Rip City from becoming R.I.P city. Blazers in 7.

BNM

 

Everything you need to know about the binge-worthy NBA playoffs

by Kevin Pelton ESPN.com:

3. Portland Trail Blazers
2017-18 record: 49-33
BPI odds vs. NO: 63 percent

On track for another season in the vicinity of .500 through mid-February, Portland caught fire during a 13-game win streak that propelled the Blazers into the top half of the Western Conference standings. Terry Stotts' defensive scheme, built around preventing high-value shots and forcing 2-pointers outside the paint, has turned Portland's liability into a top-10 unit.

The playoffs will be the Blazers' opportunity to prove that the combination of improved defense and scoring provided by the guard tandem of Damian Lillardand CJ McCollum makes them a threat to the West's elite.

Who has the most to prove?
Jusuf Nurkic. The addition of Nurkic midseason was a key factor in last year's (now trademark) Portland second-half run, but the Bosnian Beast was limited to 17 total minutes in the Blazers' first-round sweep at the hands of the Warriors. Although Nurkic's offense hasn't carried over on a consistent basis this season, his ability to protect the rim has anchored Portland's defense. With restricted free agency looming, Nurkic can solidify his value by avoiding foul trouble and making good decisions with the ball on offense.

Season in a single game: Feb. 14
Coming off a home loss to the Jazz that dropped them within a game of falling out of the playoffs, the Blazers started their 13-game win streak in style. They blitzed the Warriors from the start, running up 40 points in the first quarter and withstanding a 50-point effort from Kevin Durant to win 123-117. The game showcased Portland's winning formula offensively: a huge game from Lillard (44 points, eight assists) with plenty of scoring from McCollum (29 points) and a strong effort by Nurkic (17 points, 13 rebounds).

play
1:31
Durant outduels Lillard, but Trail Blazers edge Warriors
Damian Lillard scores 18 of his 44 points in the first quarter as Portland jumps out to a big lead, but Kevin Durant pulls Golden State close with a 50-point effort. Klay Thompson misses a go-ahead 3-pointer late, as the Trail Blazers win 123-117.

Second Spectrum says:
McCollum ran 2.70 miles per game this season, the most by any player in the NBA, while Lillard ranks tied for eighth on that list at 2.54. Portland is the only team in the NBA that has two players in the top 10. That's even more notable considering the Blazers rank 19th in the NBA in pace (possessions per 48 minutes).


Season is a success if ...
The Blazers are competitive in the second round of the playoffs. Winning a series wouldn't be new for the Blazers in the Lillard-McCollum era, though they benefited from injuries to Blake Griffin and Chris Paul during their first-round win over the Clippers two years ago. To justify the luxury-tax bill that re-signing Nurkic and backup center Ed Davis would likely require, Portland could use a couple wins in a matchup with one of the West's powers.

BNM

 

Golliver (by Ben Golliver) and Nadkarni spend most of their time talking about the Pelicans even though they begrudgingly pick the Blazers to win. Weak!

 

Other half of the ESPN.com matchup...

By Ohm Misuk - ESPN.com:

6. New Orleans Pelicans
2017-18 record: 48-34
BPI odds vs. POR: 37 percent

Anthony Davis is worth watching every game just to see what spectacular line he will put up next. New Orleans has surprised many with an inspiring playoff run after losing DeMarcus Cousins to a season-ending Achilles injury. After Cousins went down on Jan. 26, the Pelicans lost five of six games but recovered by going 20-8 since Feb. 10, riding Davis' MVP-caliber play.

Who has the most to prove?
Playoff Brow. The NBA world will be watching to see what he'll do in his second trip to the postseason. Davis hopes to make this one last a little bit longer than his first playoff experience in 2015, in which he averaged 31.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 1.3 steals but was swept by Golden State. Can Davis overcome a Portland defense that will spend an entire series geared toward containing him?

Season in a single game: Feb. 26
Davis did more than just carry the Pelicans after the Cousins injury. He went on a historic tear, leading the Pelicans on a crucial 10-game win streak. His defining moment in that stretch came against Phoenix, when he detonated for 53 points, 18 rebounds and 5 blocks, joining Bob McAdoo as the only NBA players with 50 points, 15 rebounds and 5 blocks in a game since blocks were first tracked in 1973-74, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

play
0:53
The Brow stays hot in February
Anthony Davis continues to pick up the slack in DeMarcus Cousins' absence, as he drops a historic 53 points, 18 rebounds and 5 blocks in a win against the Suns.

Second Spectrum says:
If you're into helter skelter, the Pelicans are the team for you. More than simply Davis' dominance since Cousins went down, New Orleans has ramped up the speed at which it plays, ranking first in pace and averaging more miles per hour on offense than any other playoff team.

Pelicans Are Among "Fastest" Since Cousins Injury
TEAM % TIME
"BEING FAST"*
Chicago Bulls 9.03
New Orleans Pelicans 8.97
Philadelphia 76ers 8.93
Phoenix Suns 8.30
Atlanta Hawks 8.06
* since Jan. 27
Source: Second Spectrum
Season is a success if ...
The Pelicans advance out of the first round. Cousins' injury figured to rip New Orleans' playoff chances to shreds, but Alvin Gentry's team persevered. Even when the team hit a four-game slide in late March that threatened its playoff chances, the Pelicans bounced back by winning the next four games. Every team in the West not playing Houston or Golden State in the first round will feel like it can advance after basically playing do-or-die games down the stretch. New Orleans has a chance to advance with Davis on its side.

 

Great thread.

 

Not really an article, but here's FiveThirtyEight.com's playoff projections as of April 12, 2018:



So, they have us as 58/42 favorites over the Pelicans going into the series.

BNM

 

Would be greater if not for al the Blazer doubters... yeah Dame will feast on it, but... damn...

we clobbered them in the last game, we should get more respect.

 

Another one from BleacherReport...

NBA Playoff Bracket 2018: Round-by-Round Guide to the Postseason
by Paul Kasabian - Bleacher Report:

No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. No. 6 New Orleans Pelicans

The Portland Trail Blazers have no answer for Anthony Davis, who postedan average of 36 points, 11.5 rebounds and 4.0 blocks in his two full games against them this year (he was injured early in a third and missed the fourth matchup entirely).

The question is how the Pelicans defend Blazers point guard Damian Lillard. If the three-time All-Star goes into one of those modes where he's pulling up and hitting three-pointer after three-pointer all series, then Portland should take this one. But if the Pels can at least slow him down a bit, then they have a shot.

Like the Bucks-Celtics series, this matchup has the potential to be the best of the first round. Look for this one to go long, with the Blazers winning a close Game 7 at home to move on.


Pick: Blazers 4, Pelicans 3

BNM

 

This is the best possible outcome, IMO. We have no excuse not to make it to the 2nd round.
The only issue will be not having anyone to guard Davis. If only we had been able to keep Vonleh...

 

He will be guarded by committee with all of Nurk, Davis, Collins and Aminu taking a crack at him. I expect Aminu to draw the bulk of the duty, but we have enough big bodies to throw at him. Davis will get his, he's just that good. The key is not letting anyone else go off. I wish Moe was back sooner. His length would help on Mirotic.

BNM

 

With that said...I am very concerned about how heavily we're going to rely on Aminu. If the series comes down to role players hitting shots, I think NOP has a distinct advantage. We need to make sure we have at least 8 offensive sets, and play with a surgical determination - hoisting 3-pointers will not get it done.

 

Umm....Wut?