Zach Collins: 17-18 season postmortem

I was and am a big Zach supporter. The acumen and the skills are awesome.

But let's put aside my "feelings" and look at the stats - he mostly sucked.

My thinking during the season was that, sure his pre all-star numbers sucked, but he was actually very good post all-star. I was right....ish. Before looking at the numbers more closely, here are the NBA league averages:


Notes: He average 15.2 mpg pre and 17.0 post - similar enough to compare numbers head to head.
1) FG%
pre: .382
post: .422
league average: .460

So, unacceptable to mediocre. A lot of his shots were 3s post, so it would be better to compare EFG%.

2) 3FG%
pre: .317
post: .300
league average: .362

Actually got worse.

3) FT%
pre: .560
post: .765
league average: .767

Improved to league average, which is great for a big man. OTOH, sample size is pretty small - he didn't get to the line very often (13-17 post).

4) PER:
Total for year: 7.56. Basically tied with Biggie for 2nd worst on the team (yes, definitely lower than Pat):


5) Other
His rebounding, assists, and blocks were about the same post as pre. Fewer steals and more turnovers, but fewer fouls. More points, but more shots to get them.

Bottom Line:
His 2FG% and FT% improved post ASG, but he was mostly a big bag of meh stats-wise. Put another way, other teams fanbases are probably very unexcited by Zach, and would consider him a throw-in in a trade.

 

For shits and giggles, compare his stats with Jordan Bell's...

 

I don’t have the time to do that at the moment but didn’t Bell have a pretty severe ankle injury mid year?

 

Maybe it’s reading into the numbers to much but I have studied his stats a lot and while I’m not going to say he’s a bust and I think he sucks. I will say I think he has a ton to prove and while I hope he is what we need from him, I haven’t really bought into him yet. Definitely shows flashes of good play though.

 

You look at the numbers and it is tough to see what the excitement is about. At best, it looks like at least another season before he is ready to contribute. Worse, there is nothing there that suggests he is going to be a high impact player, rather than merely useful.

 

Jordan Bell is three years older, so I'm not sure how good the comparison is, but:

https://www.basketball-reference.co... Bell&y2=2018&player_id2=belljo01&idx=players

Bell does best him in almost every category, except two important ones: DRtg (93 v. 107, ZC wins), 3pt% (31% v. 0%).

 

I was a big fan of the pick when we took Collins but since the first minute he put on a blazer jersey in summer league last year he has been a disappointment.

He will find his way in the league and be productive eventually but I really don’t see him as a foundational type of player at all anymore. Maybe he could be a high end role player in 7-8 years but his ceiling has fallen significantly. He’s Kelly olynk with a little more defense.

 

Analyzing the stats in a year when most people didn't even think he'd step foot on the court seems a bit silly.

 

Did people think he wouldn’t get on the court?
I didn’t like the pick, though I’ve warmed up to it a little. I don’t really remember people saying he wouldn’t get on the court though. I mainly remember hearing him called a foundational piece.
Be gentle though my memory today sucks. I’ve been working on getting my inverse kinematic code to work right all day and My measurements just aren’t working out right and it’s given me a migraine... I don’t know where my bug is.

 

So a 20-year old turned out to be a below average NBA player in his rookie season? Better cut bait I guess.

 

Can't figure out how to post tables, but here is a comparison of Steven Adams, Bogut, Tyson Chandler, and Collins when they were 20-21 (21 only because it was their rookie year and they didn't play at 20). I included Whiteside, but he didn't play but 2 minutes, so it doesn't really add anything.

https://www.basketball-reference.co...ect=Steven Adams&player_id5=adamsst01&y5=2014

Collins is 3rd in scoring/36, last in rebounding/36, 2nd Asst/36, 3rd blk/36, 1st FT%, 1st (and only) 3pt%, last ORtg, 1st DRtg, and last in eFG%.

Honestly, after looking at these numbers it is just too hard to take anything away because he (and all of them) where too much works in progress. If you were just looking at him as a defensive center, then I think you would have to be discouraged. But, if you are looking for a post/rim defender who can hit the three, then he is alone.

 

He's a project. He was always a project. He has a high ceiling. I think he's going to be an exceptional defender. I just didn't think a project was what we needed.

 

So, we're just ignoring his defense too ?

 

He was rail thin and didn't start on his college team. Most people were projecting it to be 2-3 years before he contributed to an NBA rotation.

 

The narrative I've actually heard here recently is "don't trade him unless you get Butler of Leonard."

 

No, it's just that my "eye test" was somewhat wrong in terms of perceived improvement.

 

I definitely tend to remember his good play more than when he's invisible.

 

I know this argument can be made for any player that someone likes, to put a nicer spin, but I feel like often last season, his contributions didn't really show up on the stat sheet. His ability to stay vertical on defense for someone so young is a great skill. If he defends the shot, and causes a missed bucket, that doesn't show up as a block anywhere, so it makes it difficult to get an accurate assessment from normal stats.

 

He's got a lot of potential in a lot of areas that he showed flashes of last year. I think he's going to be good, surprised that some are writing him off already.

 

absolutely, the skills are definitely there, even though they don't show up on the stat sheet. But, statistically, he was very mediocre. Of course, I didn't use any more advanced stats except PER.