Re: the "where do you get your news from" thread, I don't usually get it from NBC, but this headline caught my eye and it was a well-written and -referenced article. I'm interested in what you think of the premise: Trump is winning — but are voters tired of it? Analysis: President Donald Trump has racked up a series of policy victories. The question now is whether that helps his party at the polls next month — or hurts it. A) Do you agree with the premise that Trump has made good on his campaign promises? B) If so, do you think this will cause anyone who voted for him to not vote for him or his endorsed candidates? Personally, I think that there are fewer people who voted for Trump in 2016 who are disgusted now and will vote Blue than there are people who didn't vote for Trump and will now vote Red. (I'm one, based on the FL races). But I'm in a swing state. That's why I'm asking the above questions.
isn't it pretty easy to get policies passed when one party controls all 3 sectors? On the other hand we had a Senate Majority leader state that he will do his best to "obstruct" the Obama administration from getting anything passed. That to me is pretty disgusting. How do you feel about that? As for your question, I would never vote for Trump as I see him as a disgusting human being who constantly lies and treats people with utter disrespect. I also disagree with who will and won't vote for trump as you are discounting the possible surge of new young voters and the woman vote who is shifting more and more rapidly towards blue.
A. He has fulfilled some promises (the easy ones, mostly) and failed at others. That's not necessarily different from any president. Easy things are easy; hard things are hard. B. You may not have voted for Trump, but I don't guess you voted for Hillary either. So I'm not sure you really count as a crossover voter. Correct me if I'm mischaracterizing you. I doubt there are many real crossover voters in either direction. What will make the difference (or not) is turnout. There might be a block of voters who aren't party or Trump aligned who just vote for whoever seems like they'll shake things up / burn things down. That was Trump last cycle but is likely to be Democrats this cycle. But who knows how many of those there are, and whether they vote in midterms. barfo
I don't know that new tax plan, choosing who he chose for the SC, stopping our involvement in NAFTA, TPP and the Iran deal were "easy". No, you're right, and in general more Republicans (especially in the more well-known races) tend to espouse what I'd vote for. For instance, Scott over Nelson (Senate) and DeSantis over Gillum (FL Gov). But that's not always the case, and especially down-ballot. My experience (YMMV) is that people can still be who they say they are because there isn't a lot of lobbyism in the county water commissioner or City Councilman or something. I don't take into account, for instance, someone's preferences on late-term abortion when they state they want to implement non-pesticidal methods of insect control. But I do have philosophical differences with people who want to raise taxes and have more government control on things. You don't get to go far in the (D) party thinking that. Hell, Manchin is a D that may switch over if he gets re-elected. Fair enough. But Pinellas County (right next door) is a "pivot county"--one that voted for Obama in 08 and 12 and Trump in 16. Hillsborough (esp. 14th District) is pretty blue, but even then it was within 6%, iirc.
A.) He has come through on some promises. None that will untimately help most of the people who voted for him. Many of his promises are still unfufilled. B.) I expect most of the people who voted for him to do so again, many probably because they don't want to admit they are wrong. In 2016 many many dems didn't vote because of Clinton. That is why he did so well in the midwest. There will be a lot more people voting this year, including new voters...mostly young liberals. I expect most of these voters will not vote red.
You've got to be kidding. This Novem Where's that wall Mexico was gonna pay for? Wasn't that his most ardent promise?
In the future, I hope Trump's victory opens up the door for more people outside of the career politician arena to run for the Presidency. Seeing how much the "machine" does attack him, it may be a deterrent as well.
No, as the finagling that occurred in 2010 showed. Even a filibuster-proof supermajority needed I didn't like it when Biden talked about it. I think I even (on this board) discussed Reid's "Nuclear Option" coming back to bite him. To quote Democrat Rep. Alcee Hastings of the House Rules Committee during the (PPACA) bill process: “We’re making up the rules as we go along.” I don't like any of those, and didn't when it happened. And I don't love it now. And I keep getting flummoxed at people continuing to vote assholes (on both sides) to have more power over our lives when they show this kind of behavior?! But Trump's not on the ballot. Sure, I'm discounting them. I'm also discounting people who were "young voters" a few years ago and, now that they're in the workforce and having families, like more in their paycheck and more control over their lives. As barfo said, I think it's just a matter of turnout. If I had to bet on it, I'd surmise the House goes to (D) by <10 votes, and the Senate stays (R) somewhere around 54-46. But ...? The interesting thing to me was NBC stating, basically, "Trump's winning, whatcha gonna do about it." Instead of (what I'd have expected) "Trump's failed on most of his promises--Where's that wall? How is ISIS?--and is still a horrible person"
I didn't like it when Biden talked about it. I think I even (on this board) discussed Reid's "Nuclear Option" coming back to bite him. To quote Democrat Rep. Alcee Hastings of the House Rules Committee during the (PPACA) bill process: “We’re making up the rules as we go along.” I don't like any of those, and didn't when it happened. And I don't love it now. And I keep getting flummoxed at people continuing to vote assholes (on both sides) to have more power over our lives when they show this kind of behavior?! But Trump's not on the ballot. I also disagree with who will and won't vote for trump as you are discounting the possible surge of new young voters and the woman vote who is shifting more and more rapidly towards blue.[/QUOTE] Sure, I'm discounting them. I'm also discounting people who were "young voters" a few years ago and, now that they're in the workforce and having families, like more in their paycheck and more control over their lives. As barfo said, I think it's just a matter of turnout. If I had to bet on it, I'd surmise the House goes to (D) by <10 votes, and the Senate stays (R) somewhere around 54-46. But ...? The interesting thing to me was NBC stating, basically, "Trump's winning, whatcha gonna do about it." Instead of (what I'd have expected) "Trump's failed on most of his promises--Where's that wall? How is ISIS?--and is still a horrible person"[/QUOTE] 70% of the "more in your paycheck" went to the wealthy. And then there's the issue of who gets the benefits 10 years from now and who doesn't. https://www.npr.org/2017/12/19/5717...h-of-gop-tax-cuts-will-go-to-the-middle-class
His part in choosing the SC justice was picking a name from a list someone else (outside government) put together for him. Literally that's all. There was nothing hard about saying 'I don't want to do TPP'. Anyone could have done that (had they been president). The tax plan he had pretty much nothing to do with other than signing it. Iran deal was just a matter of saying 'fuck you' to all our allies. No effort whatsoever. NAFTA modifications (not 'stopping') took some work on the part of his administration, so I do give him credit for that one, as far as effort goes. barfo
Results of the NAFTA modification are pretty minimal. I thought we were gonna get a wall paid for by Mexico out of that re-negotiation.
I’m not the best person to answer this question because I am admittedly biased and despise Trump and what he’s doing to America. But, I do think more people are generally more pleased with Trump today then a month ago (by a tiny margin). However, “winning” might bring complacency amongst his supporters. His detractors are very jazzed up and I expect a very good turnout from them. On the other hand, midterms are usually more conservative driven. So who knows what the outcome will be.
It warms the cockles of my heart when I think of the massive amount of his voters who will reap zero benefit from having Trump as their lord and savior. Except the guns of course. They’ll have their guns.
They can go to bed dreaming of an imaginary wall paid for by Mexico. The wall will never be paid for by Mexico. NEVER. Those people hate Trump with a passion.
Fair point. In my anecdotal reading, though, (biased due to being educated, relatively economic-interested working women, who generally are moderate-to-liberal) there's been an increasing WTF?! moment for having white women called out as traitors. Again, I don't have a visceral reaction, but I think that some of the emotion that the D's have been using for years is now starting to be picked up by people in non-coast states. I think 2016 was a start to the trend. I kind of hope not, because I don't want to be in a world where dumb mobs win (thank you, Founding Fathers).[/QUOTE]
Meh, I think midterms are generally the backlash against the party that just won the Presidency. I fully expect to see House movement to the left, probably giving control.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-might-move-in-opposite-directions-this-year/ 538 showing likely the D’s pick up seats and probably the control of the house but that R’s maintain and possibly pick up seats in the senate.
Well, tbh, that's a big one. And two more non-Sotomayors to remove the concept of judicial activism. That's a plus. If we can get spending and government programs under control (including the farce of paying insurance companies for health care), that's big. YMMV. Plus, I'm excited to see about all the investigations going on. I'd love to see the President held accountable if he broke the law--it hasn't happened in a while. I'd love to see people subverting the government taken down, whoever they may be and for whatever reason.
Brian, you and I both exist in echo chambers to some degree. I’m in liberal CA and you in the military. Most people are in a similar situation where we socialize and work with people who are more likely to have similar political views. This obfuscation makes an unbiased assessment very difficult. When I have time I try and read/watch views from across the political spectrum but that biased too, there are going to be 100+ million voters and reliance on any criteria to test the wind is fraught with problems. But, we try. I think 538 tries very hard to be unbiased. Polling becomes more important to capture any pulse of the greater nation.
