It sounds like a pretty good idea to me..I think I've heard somebody who had suggested this on some website but I thought of a few variations to this idea as well.Have two lotteries: One for the bottom 3 teams and one for the 4-14 teams<u>Lottery 1:</u>Team 1 - 33.3% chance/10 combinationsTeam 2 - 33.3% chance/10 combinationsTeam 3 - 33.3% chance/10 combinationsSo everybody in the bottom 3 has an equal chance to get the #1 pick. I think it's impossible to completely avoid tanking but at least the worst 3 teams at the end of the they won't be pulling off tank jobs against each other to move down a spot. Tanking may be high to get into the bottom 3 though so this could be a problem. Like I said though it's inevitable. This may decrease it a bit because clearly there's no possible system besides Van Gundy's idea of allowing every team, including playoff teams to have the same odds (absolutely out of the question..imagine Phoenix or San Antonio grabbing Greg Oden?) that will prevent it completely.Then for the 2nd lottery with the 4-14 teams fold the numbers from the old bottom 3 teams to the top 3 teams "fighting" for the #4/5/6 pick with the normal #1/2/3 odds. So the last team has 5 combinations in the system now, so you would give the 5 combinations from them and add them to team #4 because there's 3 less teams, so you increase everybody's odds by getting rid of the 3 worst percentages. It's kind of hard to explain but the only team's numbers that would really change are teams 4-6. And the bottom 3 of the system now would be taken away because there would be 3 less teams in "lottery 2"<u>Lottery 2:</u>Team 4 - 25.5% chance/255 combinationsTeam 5 - 20.5% chance/205 combinationsTeam 6 - 16.3% chance/163 combinationsTeam 7 - 11.9% chance/119 combinationsTeam 8 - 8.8% chance/88 combinationsTeam 9 - 6.3% chance/63 combinationsTeam 10 - 4.3% chance/43 combinationsTeam 11 - 2.8% chance/28 combinationsTeam 12 - 1.7% chance/17 combinationsTeam 13 - 1.1% chance/11 combinationsTeam 14 - 0.8% chance/8 combinationsHow does it sound to you? All the "chances" are for the #1 pick or in Lottery 2's case the #4 pick..if it's a bit confusing then whatever. I just figured I'd throw an idea up there. Especially after Stern admitted the system needs to be revisited and he "understands" tanking.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>It?s too late for the Celtics, but lottery reform may be on the way. Indeed, after watching the sixth (Portland), fifth (Seattle) and fourth (Atlanta) teams leapfrog the league?s bottom three for the top three draft picks in the June 28 draft, commissioner David Stern had to understand that this silliness is ready for the scrap heap. Even before the balls were blown out of the air popper, Stern allowed that the system could be open to review. ?Everything is open for discussion by the owners,? he said. As for the issue of tanking - a practice that seems to happen regardless of the lottery or non-lottery system - Stern had this to say: ?If I were a coach and out of it, I?d like to see what I had.? In other words, he understands when lottery teams give their younger players more time in March and April. If Stern really believes this, then he should go back to the system that rewards the worst teams - and especially their fans. The worst record gets the top pick. Period.</div>
This would make the tanking issue worse, because if the bottom 3 teams would get the same chance at the #1 pick, then a ton of teams would start tanking as soon as they get eliminated from the playoffs (or even before they get statistically eliminated, because they know they're "done"). I honestly think that they should have all 14 teams with the same odds. Do it like they used to and have a live drawing in front of a live audience (and show it on TV). Put a bunch of ping pong balls, with covers on them (so there would be no rig talk), into a machine or whatever, and stuffle them around. Have Stern pick them one by one. This way the tanking issue is solved and there is no way it could be rigged, especially considering that everybody gets to watch it. It could absolutely bite the worst teams in the ass, and it could also help a near-playoff team, but I think that's the way it should work.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticBalla32 @ May 28 2007, 01:56 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>This would make the tanking issue worse, because if the bottom 3 teams would get the same chance at the #1 pick, then a ton of teams would start tanking as soon as they get eliminated from the playoffs (or even before they get statistically eliminated, because they know they're "done").I honestly think that they should have all 14 teams with the same odds. Do it like they used to and have a live drawing in front of a live audience (and show it on TV). Put a bunch of ping pong balls, with covers on them (so there would be no rig talk), into a machine or whatever, and stuffle them around. Have Stern pick them one by one. This way the tanking issue is solved and there is no way it could be rigged, especially considering that everybody gets to watch it. It could absolutely bite the worst teams in the ass, and it could also help a near-playoff team, but I think that's the way it should work.</div>I agree somewhat.I think the 3 worst teams should have a 20% chance of winning each, and then the rest of the lottery teams have an equal chance.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Pacers fan forever @ May 28 2007, 10:10 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I agree somewhat. I think the 3 worst teams should have a 20% chance of winning each, and then the rest of the lottery teams have an equal chance.</div> The whole point of this would be to try and solve the tanking issue. If you did this, them teams would still tank to get in the top 3.
I honestly think the lottery should stay the way it is. The media's just making a big deal out of it because lottery was such a big deal this year....it went well in 2002 and in 2003, nobody cared in 2004 or 2005....it didn't go 'well' this year, so now it's suddenly a flawed system.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (BrewCityBuck @ May 28 2007, 12:09 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I honestly think the lottery should stay the way it is. The media's just making a big deal out of it because lottery was such a big deal this year....it went well in 2002 and in 2003, nobody cared in 2004 or 2005....it didn't go 'well' this year, so now it's suddenly a flawed system.</div> But the big thing here is that people are fed up with the constant year-in year-out blatant tank jobs. To eliminate/fix that issue, the system has to be changed it some way. I'm not taking this year's lottery results into effect at all, I just think that the tanking is ridiculous and that needs to be addressed in some way. Tinkering the lottery system is the only way you could really fix it.
But you can't really take anything away from the worst team in a lot of cases. Sometimes teams are just bad or have a lot of extremely large string of bad luck going for them. You have to balance the NBA and allow the bad teams grow into good teams building through the draft. You're never gonna stop tanking no matter what you do. You can't make it unfair for the real worst teams just because some of the bottom teams are losing on purpose. That's just how it goes.How would you tinker it?Option 1: making all 14 teams have the same chancesThis fails because is it right that a playoff-caliber team and just misses out by a game or so has the same chances to get the #1 pick as the team who had a miserable season or a few miserable seasons filled with injuries and just losing in general? Nption 2: making all the teams in the NBA, including playoff teams have the chance to get the #1 pick?NO way in hell this would be fair. Imagine Dallas getting Greg Oden or San Antonio getting Greg Oden. Terrible ideaI like Marc Cuban's idea.<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Replace the lottery with a simple better team record or coin flip based on conference standings. In other words, for the last two teams in each conference , the team with the better record gets the first pick. If its a tie, there is a coinflip. The next to last in each conference face off. The better record gets the 3rd pick, a coin flip breaks a tie, all the way up the standings.This wont completely eliminate teams from committing to "player evaluation games" at the end of the season, but it does take into account the relevant strengths of the conferences and teams places within the conferences. Its possible that a 25 win team in the better conference is a much better team than a 25 win team in the weaker conference, yet they both get equal weight in the current lottery. They shouldn't. What makes this system potentially exciting is that teams will have something to play for at the every end of the season. How much fun would it have been watching Boston and Memphis compete to win enough games to get the #1 pick ?</div>
I like Cuban's idea...But, it would be sweet if the NBA had a four-team playoff for the top pick. The four worst teams (record-wise) in the league would have a tournament, and the winner gets the first pick, runner-up gets the second pick, and then they could have a third-place game to see who gets the third pick. Probably best to have a best-of-three series... but this will never happen.
The only way to fix it is put the whole league in the lottery, ya your gonna get teams with some stacked rosters and whatnot, but it'll fix all the bs
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (AmBitIoNz23 @ May 28 2007, 11:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>The only way to fix it is put the whole league in the lottery, ya your gonna get teams with some stacked rosters and whatnot, but it'll fix all the bs</div> No, that would be terrible. Imagine the Spurs getting the top pick this year and having a championship caliber team plus a young superstar? That would be wrong. If you are gonna do that, you might as well do what I said - have all the lottery teams (all non-playoff teams) in the lottery with the same odds. That would solve all the tanking problems, and it would also be much better than your idea of having some of the best teams get MORE stacked and having the desperate teams possibly not improve at all.
There is no system that would eliminate tanking with the exception of giving every team an equal chance at winning the lottery and it has already been talked to death about the fairness of a team like San Antonio or Dallas or Phoenix winning the lottery while contending for championships at the same time. As long as 1 spot has a better chance of winning the lottery then another there will always be tanking I.e.Only worst x amount of teams have equal shot at #1: Teams would tank to get into or stay in that specific numberAll non playoff teams have equal shot at #1: Borderline playoff teams would tank because they would have a better shot at winning the lottery then beating a top seed in the 1st round.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticBalla32 @ May 28 2007, 09:36 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>But the big thing here is that people are fed up with the constant year-in year-out blatant tank jobs. To eliminate/fix that issue, the system has to be changed it some way. I'm not taking this year's lottery results into effect at all, I just think that the tanking is ridiculous and that needs to be addressed in some way. Tinkering the lottery system is the only way you could really fix it.</div>but who says that there are "constant year-in-year-out blatant tank jobs"? To me it seems like it happens every few years, and teams gain a maximum of a few percentage points in chance to get a higher pick by doing it; very statistically insignificant as we saw this year. Do you think that it would be better to have a team like the Clippers get Greg Oden than to have a little bit of mostly inconsequential tanking? I agree with BCB, it's rare and ineffective compared to the alternative.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Kobebryant_24OWNEDME @ May 29 2007, 11:51 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>but who says that there are "constant year-in-year-out blatant tank jobs"? To me it seems like it happens every few years</div> It happens every single year. You know about this year, what about last year? Minnesota tanking like hell, sitting KG/Ricky with "sore ____" and letting Mark Madsen take 7 three's at the end of the game (bricked them all, and I believe it was even in an OT game)... the reason? Minnesota and Boston were tied with the 6th worst record, so Minnesota wanted to make sure they got 6th. Things like this happen every single year.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (CelticBalla32 @ May 29 2007, 08:57 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>It happens every single year. You know about this year, what about last year? Minnesota tanking like hell, sitting KG/Ricky with "sore ____" and letting Mark Madsen take 7 three's at the end of the game (bricked them all, and I believe it was even in an OT game)... the reason? Minnesota and Boston were tied with the 6th worst record, so Minnesota wanted to make sure they got 6th. Things like this happen every single year.</div>they sat out kg for nothing this year too. I dunno. seems every team that got accused for tanking got screwed w/ a bad pick. Rigged? I dunno. I doubt someone can rig those lottery balls. still, I like the draft the way it is right now. And no, its not because the blazers got the number 1 pick, I liked it even last year when we got the 4th pick w/ the worst record.
Give out huge suspensions/fines or knock teams down in their lottery odds if they are blatently cheating. God, I am a genius.
