Exclusive 2019 Trade Deadline Thread

Teams usually just let it expire. Can’t remember the last time a significant sized TPE was used. Stupid us for thinking Olshey was going to use the Crabbe one

Btw I can already see it now:

Olshey: Look Brooke, it was a sellers market and we didn’t want to sacrifice assets that we believe in. we did our best though and there will be more flexibility in the summer..anyways Brooke... teams are jealous of our backcourt *olshey laugh*

FART.

 

Honestly, I think that says more about you than it does Olshey.

 

Okay, bear with me because I'm not saying I would do this and I don't think OKC would take on that much luxury tax for Harkless but.........

Olshey goes to Dame and tells him we have an opportunity to get under the luxury tax, open up a roster spot, and be in a better financial position to add talent this summer. Dame asks who is being traded and Olshey says Moe to the Thunder which pisses off Dame. However, Olshey says the reason we are opening up a roster spot is that we are getting Carmelo Anthony with our trade exception from the Bulls. Dame immediately gets excited because he still thinks Melo is a "star".

Like I mentioned, we trade Harkless for Melo (full circle) and get under the luxury tax while opening up the full-MLE this summer. I think Dame would be okay with that. We could also still make a trade with the Hawks or Magic to land Ross or Prince to makeup for losing good Harkless.

 

These are current tax teams:

OKC- 22 mil
GSW- 21 mil
TOR- 16 mil
POR- 7.9 mil
HOU- 7.6 mil
MIA- 6.3 mil
WAS- 5.6 mil
BOS- 3.8 mil

Only SAC has actual caproom to make unbalanced trades or take on salary. But it is substantial at 11 mil,

I'm guessing WAS and MIA will try like hell to shed some salary. A simple Ellington dump should get MIA there. WAS needs to dump a Morris twin or Howard plus scrub to get there.

 

And taking it one step further. Here are the current trade exceptions that are still active:

Denver -14 mil, and 13 mil (Faried/Chandler)
OKC- 11 mil
CHA- 8 mil
DET- 7 mil

Our Vonleh one is for 3.5.

Don't think any of these will be used.

 

Phoenix saves about $24M, minus whatever they end up paying the first rounder. Could swap Leonard for Harkless but I went with Meyers because Phoenix doesn’t have a center under contract next season outside of Ayton. It would also open up more minutes for Bridges, Oubre, and Jackson.

 

Knowing Neil Olshey, we’ll probably going to end up with Melo and another guy from the G-League

 

I don’t know what’s going to happen but there isn’t a more obvious move to me than attaching a pick to Meyers. Meyers is fucking with Zach’s development and Portland needs to keep summer flexibility in mind as well. Leonard’s improvement is cool, and should make him easier to move. We’ve got more important things to worry about.

 

That would be such a waste of pick.

 

Once again, no it wouldn’t. Portland would almost double the amount they could offer someone in free agency. You can land a pretty impactful player for near $10M per.

 

Here are some FAs that could interest Portland should they have the full MLE

- Wes Matthews
- Tyreke Evans
- JJ Redick
- Terrence Ross
- Rudy Gay
- Jabari Parker
- JaMychal Green
- Garrett Temple
- Danny Green
- Enes Kanter
- Bobby Portis
- Brook Lopez
- Morris twins
- Nikola Mirotic
- Jeremy Lamb
- Reggie Bullock
- Noah Vonleh
- Thaddeus Young
- Trevor Ariza
- Kelly Oubre
- Demarre Carroll
- Taj Gibson
- Alec Burks
- Rodney Hood
- Bojan Bogdanovic

Obviously some of these will get paid more, some maybe even less, but I’d probably take all these guys over Meyers and a late first.

 

debatable

Portland will have a pick in the 20's. The last five times they've added a player with a pick in the 20's has been:

22 Victor Claver
22 Elliot Williams
21 Nolan Smith
26 Caleb Swanigan
24 Anfernee Simons

that's not a good endorsement for keeping that pick. Portland is in, or at least should be in, win now mode, not stockpile projects mode

sure, if the Blazers can use that pick as extra leverage for a much larger trade, that would be better. But there's a ton of reason to be skeptical about the front office's ability and willingness to execute a larger trade. There's no reason at all to be skeptical about how avoiding a 2nd year of luxury tax will be a priority this summer

I'd prefer if it was Turner leaving but a late 1st is unlikely to be enough incentive to make Turner moveable, not with major salary relief coming back

 

I’d not want some of them for free here to be honest.

How much and when do we need to drop in salary to be able to offer full MLE?

 

We'd have to be far enough under the tax apron to use the full-MLE but that would also hard cap us at the apron so we couldn't add salary for any reason during next season, not even a minimum contract.

As an important side note, many of those guys on the list would come with bird rights too so for example if we traded Leonard and a 1st for Terrance Ross (not advocating for that) we could re-sign him for any amount and wouldn't have to use the MLE to do so if he wanted to stay (same with Aminu). Of course re-signing him would likely mean we'd be over the tax and could only use the tax-MLE.

 

I would give that serious consideration, I like MO but he's like a mushroom and AFA, Jake & Turner could also play 3. Going after a Ross and/or Prince as you point out would offset as well.

 

The luxury tax next season is expected to be around $132 million making the apron at $138 million.

Right now we are at $125,694,465 with 10 players. That doesn't include Aminu, Layman, Baldwin, Curry, Stauskas, or our 1st round pick. Knocking the contract of Turner, Leonard, or Harkless off of that number gives us a lot better shot of using the full-MLE while retaining guys like Aminu and Layman. Otherwise we are stuck with a very similar roster.

I am in favor of using the 1st only if it brings back someone that will help us next year too like getting Prince from Atlanta who still has a year left on his deal.

 

My default position has always been that draft picks are gold. As I look at the players predicted to go in the 20s in this draft...I'm just not seeing it. We don't need another Swanigan, and frankly, I don't want another Simons. With the full MLE we at least have the chance to bring in a useful vet.

 

What are tax implications if we sign soneone for full MLE in the summer?

 

Having the full MLE means not being in the luxury tax. But I’m not an expert on the cap so I don’t want to talk like I am.

 

Using the Full-MLE basically imposes a hard cap at the tax apron. There is some wiggle room if we didn't use the Bi-Annual Exception but that would mean every other player we signed would have to be for the minimum.

So in my example above tax line is supposed to be $132 million next year making the apron around $138 million. The Blazers couldn't go over that $138 million if they get hard capped for any reason. Clearing Leonard or Harkless off our books gives us enough room to potentially keep Aminu and/or Layman (if we wanted to keep those guys) and sign someone to the Full-MLE. If we chose to only use the Tax-MLE we can't get as good of a player (see last summer) but at the same time there is no hard cap and we can go as far into the tax as Jody would allow.