For the record, we are 3.5 games behind Denver, likely 4 games because Denver has the tiebraker. The 3 seed probably plays either Houston, Oklahoma or Utah in the First Round while the 2 seed likely plays either the Clippers or the Spurs, huuuge difference. 20 games left and we play against Denver twice Back to Back next month, huge games. Second Place is still in play. Go Blazers!
That is going to be a tall task. Because they currently have the tie-breaker, Portland would have to win BOTH games vs Denver. Then I believe DEN still has the tie-breaker due to Division record. So Portland would have to finish in front of the Nuggets. The Blazers have 19 games left while the Nuggs have 20. To gain 5 games on them (since Portland is 4 games back in the loss column) would require a Herculean effort. Denver is on pace to win 55-56 games For Portland to get the #2 seed, you will either need a massive collapse from Denver or Portland would have to finish with 56-57 wins. To do that, Portland would have to go 17-2 or 18-1. Next to impossible. Denver would have to slump down the stretch and Portland would have to stay really hot.
Denver has a very road-heavy schedule down the stretch. After visiting both the Spurs and Warriors this week (Lakers too, but who cares), they have a 3-game home stand, then 9 of their final 14 games are on the road, with only 2 consecutive. This basically amounts to a 24-day road trip, including 2 road-home back-to-backs, and tough games at Boston, Indiana, Houston, OKC, GSW (again), Portland, and Utah. They could easily go 11-9 over that span. 54 wins might be enough to get the 2 seed.
I know, but this is denvers remaining schedule against Teams with a winning record: @Spurs, @Warriors, vs Pacers, @Celtics, @pacers, @rockets, @Thunder, @Warriors, vs Spurs, vs Trail Blazers, @Trail Blazers, @Jazz. In fact, they have the 8. Toughest remaining schedule. I know it will be difficult but it's posible
I hadn't looked at their remaining schedule so thank you for clarifying. I wouldn't expect they would maintain their current winning percentage with that schedule. But....even if they just go 11-9 over that period, the Blazers would still have to go 16-3 because they need to finish a game in front. Still a tall task. I would imagine Denver would need to go around 9-11 for Portland to catch them. That would still require the Blazers to go 14-5 but at least that seems more plausible.
I think your math's off (but only by a game). Denver's 42-20, so 11-9 puts them at 53-29 on the season. Blazers are presently 39-24, so 15-4 gets them to 54 wins. And honestly, looking at the Blazers' remaining schedule, that really should be the expectation.
Just get homecourt...in the west every other matchup is a dog fight...no gimmies in the first round anymore
We are behind 3.5 games but we play them twice. If we win both we are theoretically only 1.5 behind them. Not impossible difference to make up but difficult. If we lose any one of those games, it’s pretty much impossible unless Jokic gets injured or something.
This is true. However, 2 seed would mean home court in round 2 as well (assuming we reach it), which would be pretty awesome. Plus, can you imagine how great the playoff matchups will be if the 3-6 seeds are Denver/OKC/Houston/Utah? Those'd be outstanding.
HCA did us absolutely nothing last year. Zip, zero, nada, zilch, naught, null.....you get the idea. At #4, they face the Rockets. If they are healthy, I believe the Rockets win. Capela out 10 games and Paul out 2-0 and they are just 1 game back. At #3, they currently get the Jazz. That has often been a home court dominated series so I would feel better about that one. Blazers in 7. At #2, we would get the Clippers and although Rivers would coach circles around Stotts, I think Portland still wins. Blazers in 5. So I'm all for getting as high as possible.
2nd seed is so much better than 3rd. You get to play the Spurs or LAC. In 3-6, you have Utah, Houston and OKC. You don’t wanna face any of those 3 in the first round.
Great thread. I’ve been thinking about all of this the last 24 hours. Must get 2 seed. Clips instead of Rockets, homecourt in 2nd round, avoid GS til WCF. As was said, if we win both games against Denver, we’re right there. TBPup, yes HCA did us no good last year (same in 2009) but that doesn’t mean it would be bad for us to have it lol.
No where did I indicate it would be bad to have. I want to have it but also to get as high a seed as possible to get a more preferable match up.
The Nuggets have some pretty tough games left on their schedule. In addition to the two certain losses to the Blazers , they have to play the Warriors twice in Oakland, and road games with the Celtics, Rockets, OKC, Jazz and Spurs. There's certainly ample opportunity for losses there.
Man, getting the Spurs or Clippers in round 1 and then the winner of the Jazz/Nuggets with home court in both sounds soooooooo nice. The Blazers should've thought about this sooner!
