http://www.82games.com/dennis.htm<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>Blueprint for an NBA Championship Team by Dennis GallagherThe launch of the recent 82games.com Research Program has brought us a flurry of very interesting ideas for NBA analytical articles, many of which we hope will eventually find their way to publication on the site. I often hear that an NBA team needs two superstar players to compete for a title. Yet every year general managers pair so-called superstars only to fall short of playoff success. Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis are the latest superstar pairing, and another year of doom and gloom has already been predicted for the Knicks. What separates superstars like Marbury and Francis from the true championship superstars who can lead a team to an NBA title? In Harbingers of Fate, 82games.com explored whether a team with a player who won an individual award or statistical crown was likely to win an NBA championship in the same season. But by the time individual awards such as the leagues Most Valuable Player are announced, the season is over, playoff rosters are set and the trading deadline has long passed. Not until the off-season do teams have the opportunity to retain, trade for or sign via free agency these players in the hopes of making a championship run. Can individual player awards and statistical achievements in one season foretell team success in subsequent seasons? To answer this question, I reviewed the rosters of the 49 championship teams from the 1956-57 Celtics through the 2004-05 Spurs and noted the presence post-season award winners and individual statistical leaders from prior years. The result is a blueprint for an NBA championship team and a list of the true championship superstars who can take a team to an NBA title. WHICH INDIVIDUAL AWARDS AND STATISTICS PREDICT TEAM SUCCESS? 92% of NBA Champions had a recent All-NBA 1st Team Selection Of the past 49 NBA Champions, 45 had a player named All-NBA 1st team during the 4 years preceding the championship season. In other words, an NBA championship roster should include a Top 5 caliber player operating at the top of his game. Only 4 NBA champions failed to have a player named All-NBA 1st team during the 4 years preceding the championship season. Two of these teams, the 1976-77 Portland Trailblazer and the 1978-79 Seattle Supersonics had playersBill Walton and Dennis Johnson, respectivelywho were named All-NBA 1st Team in subsequent seasons. The other two teams, the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons and 1969-70 New York Knicks, had Top 10 caliber players who were named All-NBA 2nd Team the prior season. The MVP is usually awarded to a player named to the All NBA 1st Team, and provides an advantage over other All NBA selections. Over 65% of all NBA Champions had a player named the leagues MVP in one of the four seasons prior to winning the NBA title (over 75% if you look beyond four years). 81% of NBA Champions had a recent All-Defensive 1st Team Selection Does defense win NBA championships? All-Defensive teams were first named following the 1969-70 season. Since that time, 29 of 36 NBA champions had at least one player named All-Defensive 1st Team during the 4 seasons prior to the championship season. When All-Defensive 2nd Team selections are considered, the percentage jumps to 89% of NBA champions. Even the 7 teams without an All-Defensive honoree had All-Defensive caliber players on the roster. Players on five of these championship teams were named All-Defensive 1st Team in a subsequent season, and the other two championship teams, the 1974-75 Golden State Warriors and the 1980-81 Boston Celtics, included at least two players who were named All-Defensive 2nd Team in a subsequent season. The defensive player of the year (DPOY) award is usually given to an All-Defensive 1st Team selection. Since the DPOY award was created, 12 of the 22 NBA Champions had a previous DPOY winner on the roster. 92% of NBA Champions had a Player Ranked in the Top 8 in Efficiency the Preceding Season Which statistical leaders are important to a championship team? I found correlations between championship teams and the prior seasons top 10 scorers and top 10 rebounders. Leaders in assists, blocked shots and steals were less relevant to championship success the following season. The statistical leaders who appeared most on championship rosters were leaders in the NBAs efficiency statistic. Recently adopted as an official statistic by the NBA, efficiency is a measure of a players overall effectiveness. According to efficiency statistics published by www.basketballreference.com, of the past 49 NBA Champions, 45 had a player who finished in the Top 8 in efficiency the preceding season. BUILDING A CHAMPIONSHIP TEAM STEP 1: Acquire a Championship Superstar Approach #1: Acquire a Top 5 caliber player Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-NBA first team during their careers. These players are easy to identify as all but 4 NBA championship teams included players named All-NBA 1st Team in the prior four seasons. Approach #2: If you fail to acquire a Top 5 caliber player, then you need a Top 5 caliber defender. Only two NBA Champions failed to include a player named to the All-Defensive first team during their careers, and each of these teams included Top 5 Players. Approach #3: Clear salary cap space for next year. No NBA team has won a championship without a Top 5 player or Top 5 defender. STEP 2: Add a championship sidekick (or two) Every NBA championship roster included a Top 10 caliber player or Top 10 defender as a sidekick. Most championship sidekicks can be identified by looking at players named All-NBA 1st or 2nd Team or All-Defensive 1st or 2nd Team in one of the prior 4 seasons. All told, 86% of all championship rosters included at least one sidekick with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection, and over half of the championship rosters (57%) included 2 or more sidekicks with a previous All-NBA or All-Defensive selection. STEP 3: Make sure one of your players (superstar or sidekick) can defend No team has won an NBA title without a Top 10 caliber defender. WHO ARE TODAYS CHAMPIONSHIP SUPERSTARS? Every NBA champion has had at least one player named 1st or 2nd Team All-NBA or 1st Team All-Defensive in one of the preceding four seasons, and/or a player who finished in the Top 8 in efficiency the prior season. The 23 current players that meet this championship criteria are listed in the tables below. The 11 Top Tier Players give a team the best chance to win an NBA title. The 12 Second Tier Players give a Team and outside chance of winning an NBA title. 11 Top Tier Players PLAYER MVP All NBA 1st Top 8 Eff. DPOY All-Def 1st Ron Artest X X Kobe Bryant X X Tim Duncan X X X X Kevin Garnett X X X X Allen Iverson X X Jason Kidd X X Tracy McGrady X Steve Nash X X Dirk Nowitzki X X Shaquille ONeal X X Ben Wallace X X 12 Second Tier Players PLAYER All NBA 2nd Top 8 Eff. All-Def 1st Ray Allen X Bruce Bowen X Sam Cassell X Larry Hughes X Lebron James X X Shawn Marion X Jermaine ONeal X Gary Payton X Peja Stojakovic X Amare Stoudemire X X Dwayne Wade X Chris Webber X In addition, 89% of NBA champions had a sidekick who was an All-NBA or All-Defensive selectionin one of the prior 4 seasons. The following table lists the remaining sidekicks: 7 Sidekicks PLAYER All Def 2nd Chauncey Billups X Marcus Camby X Andrei Kirilenko X Dikembe Mutombo X Tayshaun Prince X Theo Ratliff X Cliff Robinson X Of the players who didnt make these lists, the two players most likely to join the Top Tier after the 2005-06 season are Elton Brand and Paul Pierce. Brand is currently 2nd in the league in efficiency and will likely earn his first All-NBA selection. Paul Pierce has been named All-NBA 3rd Team, is currently 9th in Efficiency, and is having his best season. The Second Tier players may soon include Chris Bosh (10th in efficiency), Yao Ming (12th in Efficiency and All-NBA 3rd team selection) and Gilbert Arenas (3rd Team All-NBA last year). WHICH CURRENT NBA TEAMS HAVE A CHAMPIONSHIP ROSTER? Half of the current NBA teams have a championship superstar player who can carry them to a title. The remaining 15 teams are facing seemingly insurmountable odds, as no NBA team has won a title without a championship superstar player. Dont hold your breath for the backcourt of Stephon Marbury and Steve Francis to bring a title back to New York as neither of these players made the cut. Other players missing the cut include Paul Pierce, Kenyon Martin, Pau Gasol, Mike Bibby and Carmelo Anthony. Among the current playoff contenders, the pretenders include: Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggetts and the Washington Wizards. One star player, however, is seldom enough to win an NBA title. Teams with only one championship superstar player have an outside chance (14%) of winning an NBA title. The 7 teams that won an NBA title with only one previously recognized star player are listed below. Each of these teams had young players who achieved superstar status in a subsequent season, and all but one (1993-94 Houston Rockets) had two future defensive stars on the roster. "One Star Player" Championship Teams Year Team Star Player Future Stars 1974-75 Golden State Rick Barry Jamaal Wilkes, Phil Smith 1976-77 Portland Bill Walton Maurice Lucas, Lionel Hollins 1978-79 Seattle Paul Silas Dennis Johnson, Jack Sikma 1988-89 Detroit Isaiah Thomas Joe Dumars, Dennis Rodman 1990-91 Chicago Michael Jordan Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant 1993-94 Houston Hakeem Olajuwon Sam Cassell 2003-04 Detroit Ben Wallace Chauncey Billups, Tayshaun Prince Currently there are 6 teams with only one star player. Two other teams, the Houston Rockets (McGrady & Mutombo) and New Jersey Nets (Kidd & Cliff Robinson) have aging sidekicks, and will also be considered in this category. These long-shots to win the NBA title are listed in the following table, along with potential future stars on their rosters. To maintain a level of objectivity, the future stars were identified as players receiving votes last season for the All-NBA and All-Defensive teams, and players currently in the Top 25 in efficiency. Current "One Star" Teams Team Star Players Potential Future Stars Dallas Dirk Nowitzki Josh Howard Houston Tracy McGrady, Dikembe Mutombo Yao Ming Minnesota Kevin Garnett Trenton Hassell New Jersey Jason Kidd, Cliff Robinson Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson LA Lakers Kobe Bryant LA Clippers Sam Cassell Elton Brand, Corey Maggette Sacramento Ron Artest Mike Bibby, Brad Miller Seattle Ray Allen Rashard Lewis, Earl Watson The 7 NBA teams who best resemble championship rosters of the past are discussed in further detail below. 7. Indiana Pacers: Jermaine ONeal & Peja Stojakovic have each been named All-NBA 2nd Team one time. With the departure of Ron Artest, the Pacers lack a top tier superstar and a top defender. Potential future stars include Jeff Foster and Anthony Johnson who both received votes last season for the All-Defensive teams, but neither is looking like a Top 10 caliber defender. 6. Philadelphia 76ers: Allen Iverson is a former MVP and was named All-NBA 1st Team last year. In addition, in the past four years Allen Iverson and Chris Webber were each named All-NBA 2nd Team two times. The 76ers come up short on defense where only 19% of prior NBA champions have won without a previous All-Defensive selection. Allen Iverson and potential future star Andre Iguodala both received All-Defensive votes last year. 5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Lebron James was one of the league leaders in efficiency last season and was named All-NBA second team. His running mates include Larry Hughes, an All-Defensive 1st team selection last year and Eric Snow an All-Defensive 2nd team selection three years ago. Zydrunas Ilgauskas received votes last year for the All-NBA teams. The Cavaliers lack a player named All-NBA 1st Teamonly 8% of NBA champions have won without an All-NBA 1st Team player on the rosterbut it appear only a matter of time for Lebron James. 4. Detroit Pistons: In the past four years, Ben Wallace is a three-time DPOY, two-time All-NBA 2nd team selection and 4 time All-Defensive 1st team selection. Chauncy Billups and Tayshaun Prince have also been named 2nd Team All-Defensive. Like the Cavaliers, the Pistons lack an All-NBA 1st team selection. The other starters include Richard Hamilton who received All-NBA votes last year and Rasheed Wallace, who received All-Defensive votes last year. 3. Phoenix Suns: Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire give the Suns 3 star players. Nash has an MVP and an All-NBA 1st team selection. Stoudemire has an All-NBA second team selection and, along with Marion, was one of the leagues leaders last season in efficiency. The Suns come up short on defense where only 19% of prior NBA champions have won without an All-Defensive selection. Marion, Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas all received votes last season for the All-Defensive teams, with Marion appearing most likely to step it up and gain future All-Defensive honors. 2. Miami Heat: Shaquille ONeal, Dwayne Wade, Gary Payton and Alonzo Mourning give the Heat 4 star players. In the past four years, Shaq is a 4 time All-NBA 1st team selection, and has been named to the All-Defensive 2nd team. Gary Payton and Dwayne Wade each have an All-NBA 2nd team selection. Payton also was named All-Defensive 1st team and Wade a one time All-Defensive 2nd team. The Heats weakness is age. Shaq is a former MVP and Payton and Mourning have each won the DPOY award, though none within the past four years. Further, neither Payton nor Mourning has received any post-season recognition in the past 3 years. 1. San Antonio Spurs: Tim Duncan and Bruce Bowen provide a championship core that no other team can match. In the past four years Duncan is a two-time MVP, 4 time All-NBA 1st team, 3 time All-Defensive 1st team and has been named All-Defensive 2nd Team one time. Bowen has been named two times each to the All-Defensive 1st and 2nd teams. Potential future stars include Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker who each received All-NBA and All-Defensive votes last season.</div>Its pretty old, but it really highlights into why the Spurs and Heat have been champions. It also shows into why the Suns cant win a championship, and the Spurs can. But it also reminds me of Valo's old article:<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>The Suns are one of the best and most entertaining teams in the league, with one of the best playmakers in the league on their team. Nash is as good of a playmaker and point guard as they come in the NBA, but if recent history shows anything, he will not be winning a NBA title any time soon. Infact, if recent history proves to continue correct, the Nash's, Kidd's, Ford's, and other big time playmaking point guards in the league will not be winning any titles any time soon. Since the Pistons in 1990, only twice has a team that had a player that averaged more than seven assists per game in the regular season won an NBA title. For those two times, only once as that player been a point guard on that team. One team was the Bulls with Scottie Pippen in the 1991-92 season, and the Spurs with Avery Johnson in the 1999-2000 season. The fact is, that teams with the big playmaker point guards like Nash, Kidd, Ford and co. do not win championships in this day and age. Why is this?One point guard controlling the ball, and controlling where it goes alot, just does not win titles. Ball movement and flow wins out alot more, than the point guard controlling the ball alot, and trying to find the open man. Look at some of the systems that have won over the years. The Triangle offense which is based on ball movement and flow, is accountable for nine of the titles since that time. The point guards in the triangle just get the ball down court, and send the ball into motion, while going ino motion themselves. The Spurs offense has alot of flow and passing in it, Tony Parker never controlled the ball a whole lot, and made sure of where it went the entire game. He iniated the offense and went into motion, because steady ball movement wins these days. The Rockets had ball movement without Vernon Maxwell controlling where the ball goes alot, that Pistons team that won had ball movement without a point guard controlling where the ball went alot. The point guards these days need to get the ball down the court, and send the ball into motion. Another big reason, is that plamaking point guards do not draw double teams. Nash, Kidd, Paul, all of these guys do not cause you to draw double teams. Double teams these days is a very valuable part of ball movement. The Bulls had Jordan, Rockets had Hakeem, Lakers had Shaq, and the Spurs have Duncan. All of these guys drew double teams, which made their team that much better. You knew that they were gonna hurt you scoring, and had to try to double team them alot to get the ball out of their hands. That often left people open alot more often, and the ball movement allowed the ball to get to the open men. Playmaker point guards do not draw these same double teams, because teams already know they are not looking to score. Sure they can score, but they are not going to hurt you must by scoring. These guys are going to hurt most by their passing, making double teaming stupid.These are just a couple of reasons that I can think of for why the playmaker point guard is no longer winning championships in this day and age. What do you think?</div>So do you guys think if you still had a playmaking point gaurd, you could still win a championship, providing you have a 1st teamer, a 1st team defender, and an eff. leader?If you look at the 2 teams Valo mentioned: 1991-92 Bulls,and 1998-1999 Spurs On the Bulls you had a:All NBa 1st Teamer in Michael JordanAll NBA 1st defensive team in Michael Jordan, and Scottie PippenA sidekick in Pippen who was All NBA 2nd teamAlso a third option in Horace Grant averaging 14 and 10.Michael Jordan second in EFF, and Scottie Pippen 13th and Horace Grant 21st.And on the 1998-1999 Spurs:1st teamer Tim Duncan2 NBA all 2nd team defensive selections Duncan and David RobinsonTim Duncan averaged 4th in Efficieny, as well as David Robinson as a sidekick placing 14th in eff, as well as averaging 15 and 10.A third option in Sean Elliot and Avery Johnson Both averaging around 10 ppg.So it is definitely possible for the suns to win a championship as long as they do infact step up their defense sometime. Especially Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire who need to step up defensively.Infact the same applied for the Nets, except they had no one filling up the stat sheet, as no one on that Nets team ranked even in the top 15 in efficiency that year. Basically what I got out of this is that role players are key. Every championship team should have at least one dominant scorer, one dominant defender, and one second option to even contend. Which is why teams like the Bulls wont win a chip because the Bulls have no 1st team selection or dominant scorer. The Mavs also would need a lockdown defender like Bowen to win a championship as well. Which is why I think they had problems with Davis and Stephen Jackson.
So that says the Suns look good for next season then.92% of NBA Champions had a recent All-NBA 1st Team Selection - Nash & Amare81% of NBA Champions had a recent All-Defensive 1st Team Selection - Bell92% of NBA Champions had a Player Ranked in the Top 8 in Efficiency the Preceding Season - Marion, Nash & STAT all ranked in the top 13. (ok so not top 8, but three players that high is pretty great).
As long as they don't trade Marion for anyone besides Garnett. They just need to get deeper and I think they stand a great shot at winning it.I don't really think it matters what position your best player is at really..you just need to try to have a good, well-balanced team. And you also have to get a little bit lucky. The Mavs were very unlucky this year. I bet they'd rather have gone up against San Antonio than GS... You have to have a good all-around team, but lucky calls, injuries, suspensions or easier match-ups also help put you ahead. Take out the really dominant teams and most champions have had a lucky break here and there in all sports. I don't really think there's a formula to win it all. Of course if you have 2-3 top players in the league you'll have a great chance to win a championship. You would know that without all those stats. But even without any top players you still can win, like the Pistons did. :-/ Hey, their Finals MVP was a PG... Still an interesting article. I'll get to reading the whole thing later.
What you guys are forgetting, is that they dont have anyone really filling up the stat sheet (efficiency) in the top 8 or even 10 which is another piece there missing. They need someone like an andrei kirilenko in his prime. Something I think Boris Diaw could fill up. He can block, pass, shoot, rebound, and steal, but not very much, something I think they can grow on him. It kind of makes sense what this article is saying. It kind of sums up that you need players on the team to fill up every single stat line to a certain extent, like the Spurs did this year:Scoring: Duncan/Parker/GinobiliPassing: ParkerRebounding: DuncanSteals: GinobiliBlocks: DuncanDefense: Bowen/DuncanThats how I look at it. The Spurs have a better than average player for each aspect of the game. Hence making them champions.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (RaptorFan#1 @ Jun 23 2007, 10:54 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>What you guys are forgetting, is that they dont have anyone really filling up the stat sheet (efficiency) in the top 8 or even 10 which is another piece there missing. They need someone like an andrei kirilenko in his prime. Something I think Boris Diaw could fill up. He can block, pass, shoot, rebound, and steal, but not very much, something I think they can grow on him. It kind of makes sense what this article is saying. It kind of sums up that you need players on the team to fill up every single stat line to a certain extent, like the Spurs did this year:Scoring: Duncan/Parker/GinobiliPassing: ParkerRebounding: DuncanSteals: GinobiliBlocks: DuncanDefense: Bowen/DuncanThats how I look at it. The Spurs have a better than average player for each aspect of the game. Hence making them champions.</div>Sorry having three players in the top 13 isn't good enough for you then?!AK in his prime didn't stuff the stat sheet like Marion does.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Milgod @ Jun 23 2007, 06:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Sorry having three players in the top 13 isn't good enough for you then?!AK in his prime didn't stuff the stat sheet like Marion does.</div> Well not statistically, I guess not. But on your Ak47 comment, he did in 03, he averaged nearly 3 blocks a game (2.9), nearly 2 steals a game (1.9), nearly 10 rebounds (8.1) 3 assists a game, and 15 points a game. Marion was never the shotblocker Ak was.However, my point is, is that the Suns need a player that will do things like that, a dirty/garbage man doing the hustle plays, and things the regular rotation dont do, something Boris Diaw could do easily if the role was put on him, but I find it odd the Suns dont push Boris Diaw enough.
Boris Diaw was lazy this year, but I did hear he was working out with Amare. They both, mostly Amare, seem to have put a lot of blame on themselves. I think Diaw should have a nice comeback year as long as he lays off the croissants.
I think the reason that it's unimportant that the Suns have those things is because this is just a prerequisite for what you need to win a championship. I'm sure there are a dozen or more teams that have had most or all of those things and still not won a championship.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Let Em Hear This @ Jun 23 2007, 08:29 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>As long as Tim Duncan's on the Spurs, the Suns will not have a title. Sorry to say.</div>Uh...no?
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Justice @ Jun 23 2007, 07:25 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>I think the reason that it's unimportant that the Suns have those things is because this is just a prerequisite for what you need to win a championship. I'm sure there are a dozen or more teams that have had most or all of those things and still not won a championship.</div> None of them are as good as the Spurs. The Mavericks for an example, still need a lockdown defender. No one on that Mavs team is exceptional at defending, I think another key to their woes. The only one close would be Devin Harris, receiving 8 votes for 2nd team. (10 off the mark)
