It's time for CJ McCollum to go.

(fair warning: much coffee this morning so this will get long)

I'm sorry, but that just doesn't make sense to me. Do you think the other players miss a higher percentage of shots only when CJ passes to them, rather than Dame or ET or Plumlee or Batum? Every player who passes the ball will see assists 'lost' because the guy missed the shot.

and the system argument doesn't cut it either because every player is in the same system

the main criticism is that CJ's trend-line in terms of taking responsibility for running the offense is all wrong considering his usage and salaries. I'm sure you've seen it:

assists/game:

2015-16 4.3 2016-17 3.6 2017-18 3.4 2018-19 3.0

assist rate:

2015-16 21.6 2016-17 18.0 2017-18 15.8 2018-19 13.8

last season, Nurkic and Turner had much higher assist rates than CJ did. In fact, compare CJ's assist rate last season to other Blazers (besides Dame) over the 4 years of the Dame/CJ team:

Evan Turner 23.6 (2018-19)
Mason Plumlee 21.4 (2016-18)
Tim Frazier 21.3 (2015-16)
Shabazz Napier 19.5 (2016-18)
Brian Roberts 18.5 (2015-16)
Evan Turner 18.4 (2016-18)
Jusuf Nurkić 17.7 (2016-18)
Jusuf Nurkić 17.9 (2018-19)
Mason Plumlee 16.2 (2015-16)
Chris Kaman 15.8 (2015-16)
Shabazz Napier 14.6 (2017-18)
CJ McCollum 13.8 (2018-19)
Anfernee Simons 13.7 (2018-19

For chrissakes, Chris Kaman was much better at finding open teammates than CJ last season. Now, I know one of the excuses is going to be he was asked to carry a bigger scoring load as the years progressed. That excuse fails logically for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is how other developing players progressed in their assist rates:

Devin Booker:
2015-16 15.8 2016-17 16.3 2017-18 24.4 2018-19 34.1

Bradley Beal:
2015-16 15.6 2016-17 16.2 2017-18 21.0 2018-19 24.1(yeah yeah, but John Wall!)

Jamal Murray:
2016-17 14.0 2017-18 16.4 2018-19 22.4 2019-20 24.2

Demar Derozan:
2014-15 17.0 2015-16 20.8 2016-17 20.6 2017-18 25.0 2018-19 27.6

Donovan Mitchell:
2017-18 19.4 2018-19 21.2 2019-20 24.0

Victor Oladipo:
2015-16 18.6 2016-17 12.5 (playing with Westbrook) 2017-18 21.2 2018-19 25.2

that's probably enough examples. Why is it that all of those guys started out with a higher rate than CJ last season, then improved on it? I'm sure you could probably find players with trend-lines somewhat similar to CJ, but how many of those guys are going to be averaging 32M a year over the next 5 years?
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there is another consideration as well. At the end of the 17-18 season, somebody did an analysis of the 20 most frequent shooters in the NBA and posted the results:



the most interesting numbers there were in comparing CJ's points per touch (not good) to the time he spent with the ball and the number of dribbles he had. He was by far the most ball-dominant of the group while also being one of the least effective

if anything, he's only gotten 'worse' in those areas since then. More than that though is we've all seen what happens to the Blazer offense when CJ gets the ball and goes into his shake-n-bake-rocker-step-cross-over-dribbling-frenzy while burning thru gobs of shot clock: the rest of his teammates tend to stop their movement and stand around watching CJ go full ball-hog because they know the chances he'll reward them for getting open are small. That doesn't happen when Dame has the ball, and it didn't happen last year when Nurkic had the ball

CJ's ball-stopping is bad for the offense. Sure, when he's hitting all his shots it looks pretty if you're a CJ fan. But not if you're a fan of motion and passing in an offense. And that's the biggest complaint most of us have about CJ. It's not that his court vision is mediocre and he'll never be a PG. It's that he has become a less and less willing passer while stopping the ball more and more.

I guess it would be somewhat acceptable if he was really good at one-on-one...but he's not; he only has average efficiency. And, it would be a little more acceptable if he was a lock-down defender....but he's simply bad at defense

the worst part though is when people point out these things they get accused of not knowing basketball or just being CJ haters. That's happened several time in this thread alone

(like I said at the beginning...too much high octane coffee this morning...sorry)

 

CJ's Numbers

2015-16
Passes per game: 45.6
Potential assists per game: 9.4

2016-17
Passes per game: 39.7
Potential assists per game: 7.9

2017-18
Passes per game: 35.0
Potential assists per game: 7.1

2018-19
Passes per game: 30.8
Potential assists per game: 6.2

There you go. Undeniable proof that CJ has become a ball hog but is capable of passing more.

 

those are interesting numbers...mind if I ask where you got them? (I'm a sucker for stats!)

 

NBA.com

 

So far this year:
Passes per game: 31.2
Potential assists per game: 6.5

Just a tad better than the awful numbers from last year but still way off the pace of better seasons. Funny thing is before last season CJ acknowledged that he needed to improve these numbers and STILL got way worse.

 

I guess I should work those databases a little more but wading thru the filters and categories always seem to be a lot of effort. Probably just unfamiliarity on my part

 

No, I agree with you. I absolutely hate trying to figure out the filters on there. Either I get to the right page through a search engine or I give up, lol.

 

yeah...problem is if I go to google, for some reason whatever letter I start with, a pornhub link pops up....

 

Damn, do you not know how to use a private or incognito window when you watch porn?

 

who says I watch porn...? there's something wrong with my browser

 

As I've been saying this whole time it's not a coincidence that the two years where he passed the most were the two seasons he shot the highest FG% and 3PT%. CJ would get easier shots if he was more of a threat to pass.

I don't know how much clearer that can be.

 

But stats lie. You have to use the eye test....

CJ plays with a bunch of $#!&&% players who can't make a shot. How do you expect him to get assists with his crappy teammates?

If CJ not a great player, then why did he get such a big contract?

Thanks Wiz & Hoppsjock. Ya'll are representing well.

 

the point is that the best shots that CJ is assigned to are often much harder shots than say, someone like Whiteside shot. The plays that are run for CJ routinely break down to where a mid range jumper is the best available shot. The plays run for whiteside routinely break down where a dunk attempt is the best available shot.

the fact that you’re trying to obscure this obvious fact shows how useless analytics are. Anyone can cherry pick stats and ignore the context (“omg, a center has a higher effective fg% than a guard! The guard must suck!” Or “omg, CJ shoots a lower effective % than JJ reddick, clearly CJ is worse than Reddick!”)

analytics are useful when used in good faith. That’s not what you’re doing. You’re cherry picking stats to make invalid points and ignoring all context to those stats (e.g. shooting guards are expected to have lower shooting averages than all other positions, e.g. shooting guards like CJ that are expected to create their own shot will naturally shoot lower percentages than someone like Reddick who primarily shoots off-screen only).

while you were playing college basketball I was studying statistics and social sciences. I think the latter gives one a far better understanding of how to interpret data of this sort.

 

and coincidentally, his worst year was the year the team went the furthest and McCollum was very instrumental in getting the team that far and that was without our starting center and Kanter and Aminu fasting during the last 2 series. Maybe individual stats don't always tell the whole story, but you guys keep pedaling your hate for McCollum (I'm sure the I don't hate McCollum will be next)

Ok, I'm back out of the Blazer forum. Not much fun in here anymore as way too much negativity.

 

OK cool, so there is a trend there.
Keep in mind he had the biggest potential assists when he also played backup PG.

I still tend to blame Stotts and not CJ.
CJ spent years at a small school with a coach who asked him to be a hero on a nightly basis and then he came into the NBA to play for a coach who asked him to do the same.

When i watch Blazers games i honestly don't know who he should pass to and why (besides throwing it in to Whiteside and letting him go to work).
In recent memory i remember Harkless or Layman doing some movement without the ball, but if he passed to Hark or Aminu on the perimeter then they would do what he does - only in an uglier fashion.

Just to be clear: i don't like it when either CJ or Dame take crazy shots instead of playing team ball.

 

1) I said the trade was dog shit

2) my comment was no different than people routinely saying “if you think CJ is good you don’t understand analytics”. I coulda phrased it better, but the hypocrisy is telling.

expecting a player with 12 games of total experience to be ready for a deep playoff run like someone like CJ with 7 consecutive playoff series of averaging 23 ppg is absurd. No other way to put it. NBA analysts, coaches, and players (not to mention common sense) are basically universal in the opinion that playoff experience is crucial bc playoff games are a totally different animal than the pre-season, summer league, and early-regular season games Ant has exclusively played in.

 

That’s per yeah bruh

 

As a basketball expert, i believe it is called "the triple threat position".

 

I mean you know that there are stats for how often he handles the ball, usage rate, and dribbling too right? Those stats don't show that he has the ball less. Harkless and Aminu were the main forwards on the team when his passing was a career year so I still don't get why you continue to make excuses. If you can't see people wide open while he sucks in 2 or 3 defenders then I don't know what to tell you.

I do agree that coaching is partly to blame for this too. That's why I hate an offense that is so reliant on ISO and PnR. The first quarter of the Spurs game is how they should be playing. Almost every possession included someone passing up a shot to get a teammate an even better one. In the 2nd half there was possession after possession without a single pass at all.

 

there is an irrational romanticizing of “passing the ball” that comes from shallow sports platitudes like “there is no I in team”

of course, ball movement is usually important. However, counting assists or passes like this is completely asinine.

Many guards would get more assists than Kobe. Were any of them better than Kobe in his prime? Not even close. Often (especially in the playoffs) the best choice is to shoot and NOT make the extra pass, especially when you’re the best shooter on your team. The team that wins is the team that scores the most, assists are a secondary stat and the significance of assists has been competely blown out of proportion bc of corny ideas about “being a team player” that are instilled in people’s heads at an early age but aren’t necessarily crucial to winning. Kobe was a better winner than Steve Nash, yet your t-ball coach would tell you the opposite.

Further, assists don’t measure hockey passes. Hockey passes are the type that iso players like Kobe and CJ routinely get (a double comes, kick to available teammate, who kicks to open shooter).