So we all know the cba is really complicated and tbh i dont know much about it, i've read this article that says the Warriors were taxpayer team in 15/16, 17/18 and 18/19, but not in 16/17, but the article also says if you were a taxpayer team in 3 of the last 4 seasons, you become a repeater tax payer, what exactly is the penalty?? How does this affect the Blazers? Can they avoid the tax next season and in 21/22?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_salary_cap There's a table in this link that shows the tax rates. The repeater tax is just at a higher rate than the already aggressive lux tax. You get hit with the repeater tax if you're over on 3 of the last 4 years. Portland will be in the tax this year (2nd time) - so we'd have to stay below the tax for the next 2 years to avoid it
so by my math, the Blazers have 86.652.790 in guaranteed money for next Season Lillard 31.626.953 Cj 29.354.152 Nurkic 14.138.889 Collins 5.406.225 Simons 2.252.040 Little 2.210.640 Trent 1.663.861 Thats seven Players, if they pick Ariza 12.8 TO, it's up to 99.452.790 Now Hood, he can take the Player option or can the Blazers make a new long term contract with him? His PO is 6.003.900, which puts the cap up to 105.456.690 Now we have 8 players, what about Hassan? Jaynes said they want to keep him, we saw on the Drummond trade that centers have zero value, but let's say he signs for 12 Million, now the cap is up to 117.456.690 Now we have 9 Players, assuming Trashzonja picks up his PO worth of 1.923.136, the cap is to 119.379.826 Now we have ten Players, what about resigning Melo? What's his expectations? Will he accept a bench role and less salary? We dont know where we pick right now, but that pick (if we dont trade him) makes 11 players on the roster. What exceptions will we use? The full mle? The tax line for next year is 139 Million, i think the Blazers have a good chance to stay under the luxury tax next year, but in 21/22, Dame's Supermax and CJ's extension kicks in, Zach will get a new contract, and i highly doubt Neil is trading him before. Nurkic is Rich Pauls client and he will try to get as much money as possible, from that, the Blazers will have a very hard time stay under the tax, let alone to build a good team around Dame.
You can only take it one year at a time. Next season looks good, even with Melo and Whiteside re-signing. The next season, as you indicated, will be a hard choice season. If the Blazers do well next year and go deep in the playoffs. Paying a year of repeater tax may be worth it. OTOH, if they don't do much, then they'll have to look at cutting salaries by off-loading a big contract or two.