This is a big point for why traditional scouting still matters, IMO. I'm not usually one for "soft factors," but drive and ability to do things that don't show up in the box score but help the team win are crucial in evaluation.
Watching the game last night I realized something - for the most part I don't care about any of our guys. Dame - Keep Nurk - Keep (and hope he can stay healthy) Outside of that: Collins - Trade or keep. I like him but I've felt since watching him the first year, he has role player written all over him. Never be a star but should be a solid role player. If he is affordable, I'm fine keeping but also fine letting him go. Trent Jr - Prefer to keep but can trade for decent deal. I like the progression he has made and I think he will continue to improve. However, like Collins, to me he is a role player. Every team needs some good role players so I'd keep him just for that. Everyone else - expendable. Some I'd prefer to trade or let walk others I'd like something back. The young 'uns (other than Trent Jr) - Interesting to watch and I think most show potential but for the most part, I see role player as their top end and out-of-the-league as a possibility for them as well. Simons has the best chance of sticking and he may develop into something more but I'm not really seeing much other than a sometimes-talented-scorer (ala CJ but not at that level). I do not see him developing into a serviceable PG. It is sad that as a Blazers fan, I look at other teams like the Grizzlies and/or Pelicans and wish we had a young group like that. Instead, we are more like the guys from the island of misfits and playing like that as well. To paraphrase Hook, "Trade 'em. Trade 'em all". (with the exceptions noted). I realize trading them all is not a viable plan for putting together a competitive team for Dame but dang, we've got to do something different as this team is far from competitive and not only are they not competitive, they are not even fun to watch (as is the case with some other teams).
Your evaluations could very well be correct, of course as a fan I hope for better outcomes. And it is discouraging that we are always drafting in late first and 2nd round. And that we haven't seemed to plan financially in a way that allows us to make a try at really good free agents. (Or that they just don't want to come here?) But as far as trading them all? First, do they actually have much trade value? And second since we never seem to draft high, isn't our best chance to develop the talent we have? (And I would like to see more coaches added who can do that; even the best development coaches cost a lot less than players and don't affect the cap).
Dame - next.... CJ - Gone. Trade him for the best wing player you can find. Success in the league is not from smallish, ball dominant back-courts. End of Story Ariza - Keep....as long as you have someone else that can keep his minutes under 30. Great 'glue' guy doing the little things. Mel0 - Gone. We already have a high volume, low efficiency shooter who doesn't play much defense in CJ. Whiteside - Keep. If he is really willing to split time with Nurk and will do it for around the same contract as Nurkic, then Yes. Nurkic - Keep...but understand you need a legit backup because he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. Less minutes is better, hence HW. Hood - Keep. Would be great paired iwth Ariza at SF but he might not ever be the same. Collins - Keep. The perfect 4/5 to fit with Nurkic/Whiteside and to fill in when there is an inevitable injury. Ant - Keep. Haven't been impressed with him yet but he is only 20. Trent - Keep. The possible successor to CJ. Little - Keep. Getting better everytime he does manage to get a few minutes. Gabriel - Keep. Amost every time he is on the court, he does something that few if any of our other bigs can do. Swanigan - Gone. If Biggie is playing, you are not a good team. Hezonjia - Gone. (See Biggie) Hoard - Keep. Nice end of the rotation guy. Brown - Gone. Was hoping to see a little more development out of him this season. Great size but little basketball skill.
In the last three games without Dame, CJ is putting up 32-11-6 on 46% from the field, 45% from 3, and 67% from the line in 39 mpg. The FT% notwithstanding, this is something to build on, and it's not that much of a deviation of what he's done without Dame in other years. He's not a bench player, nor should his contract be moved for salary relief. Unless there's an obvious move out there for a star player, you don't move him JUST to move him. Have a sit down with Stotts to figure out what more he can do to bring synergy with Dame so we actually maximize CJ's talents.
Actually, the correct answer is obvious: trade Dame. He’d bring a better player in return. Where’s that green font when I need it?
If this was around year 3 or so, I would say that might work. But CJ will be 29 next season. He is what he is and Stotts is who he is. Now to CJ's credit, this is who he can be without Dame but he's never been close to that with Dame. They are too similar. Move on.
Only disagreement I have is with Little. I'm struggling seeing him ever develop beyond a solid rotation player. I'm fine keeping him to see if he develops & pops... but I'm not holding my breath.
And you'd rather give up on CJ before exploring what they can do with Terry? CJ's ceiling I think can be as a top 25 player if he can keep up this sorta efficiency. There is no way you're getting fair value in a move for him. Watching him become an all star in the east would be painful to recover from.
the biggest difference I'd have is with the Nurk-Whiteside-Zach rotation at C-PF. Not enough minutes to make it workable long term IMO. I also don't agree that Zach would be the perfect PF. Pascal Siakam, or Bam Abedayo or Jaren Jackson would be much better fits. I worry about Olshey's obvious man-love of Zach and Zach being due for an extension this summer. Another stupid bloated contract on the way? keeping the young guys makes sense because of cheap rookie scale deals, but Trent will be RFA after next season so a big decision point on him is on the horizon too and I have no friggin clue why Olshey gave Hezonja a 2 year deal this is CJ's 5th year as the starter, and his 5th year being option 1b. He's not going to sustain this recent 3 game efficiency once Dame comes back. Nearly 400 games together as the starting back court prove that. Dame puts up stellar numbers too when CJ is out. I think a big reason both do better without the other, statistically, is that Portland actually runs more team offense when one is out vs all the iso ball when it's the 'my-turn-your-turn' tag team they run together. They have no real mesh or synergy that I cans see. But as lead guards there's more assisted baskets for everybody, including them in the last two games, CJ's usage rates have been 37.4% and 36.1% (Dame's at 30.6% for the year). That's why his production is up, he's simply using more possessions. But the interesting thing is he's still being single covered. Teams are not going out of their way to double, hedge, and trap him like they would with Dame. Obviously, other teams have a belief that CJ won't beat them... which brings up some numbers CJ fans don't talk about: Portland is 1-3 this year without CJ; and they are 1-4 without Dame. But of course, they are an injured roster with all kinds of issues. However, over the course of the 3 previous seasons, Portland is 8-8 with CJ as lead and Dame is out. But they are 12-2 with Dame as lead and CJ out. That's a big difference. Small sample sizes to be sure but it justifies teams defending CJ normally; and it also justifies all the lengths teams go thru to blanket Dame with their defense Curry and Monta Ellis had as little synergy as Dame and CJ. But the Warriors had the good sense to break up that back court and go another direction. They backed out of the cul-de-sac that pairing drove them into, and chose another street. I wish Portland would do the same
I think he could be an All-Star in the East with his own team....but that will never be the case in Portland so get someone who is a better compliment, longer, and a better defensive player.
"the biggest difference I'd have is with the Nurk-Whiteside-Zach rotation at C-PF. Not enough minutes to make it workable long term IMO. I also don't agree that Zach would be the perfect PF. Pascal Siakam, or Bam Abedayo or Jaren Jackson would be much better fits. I worry about Olshey's obvious man-love of Zach and Zach being due for an extension this summer. Another stupid bloated contract on the way?" @wizenheimer ...perhaps I should clarify. I thought we were talking about the current Blazers roster. Of course there are better options out there for a 'perfect' PF to compliment Nurk/HW, but Toronto isn't giving up Siakim anytime soon nor are either of those other two likely available. In a Keep/Go scenario, Collins is the best fit Portland currently has available IMO.
Random thoughts. Wes Matthews is almost criminally under-valued by some fans. I hope Trent turns out as good. Collins gets a mulligan for this season. Next season he needs to actually prove it, or the team needs to look elsewhere. I really want Little to succeed - but I fear he is more undersized 4 than our 3 of the future. Right now, Simons is what is known in baseball as a "tools-goof". He needs to learn how to actually play. Even if we wanted Melo back, his former agent is now president of the Knicks. If they want him, they will get him. If they don't want him, why the $%#@ should we? The Nurk/Whiteside situation makes me glad I am not a GM. There are so many ways it can go wrong!
Every time I see him get the ball he's shooting it. Not saying he's selfish, I'm just saying that he always sees that as the best option. Sure, if he was foreign and had a different game.
