2019/20 Blazers 1.0 vs Blazers 2.0

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TBpup, Jun 4, 2020.

  1. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    Nurkic 28 mpg Whiteside 20
    Collins 28 Melo 26
    Ariza 30
    CJ 38 Trent 22
    Dame 40 Simons 8

    Those are the minutes I'd give out. Melo and Trent both play some of their minutes at SF. I think Whiteside might complain about being a backup and only 20 mpg. Melo may want to start too. Both would be great on the second unit if we can get all players happy and playing well. Who knows, with only 8 games then hopefully playoffs maybe everyone buys in.

    A second unit of Whiteside+Melo reminds me of having Kanter+Hood+Curry last year and how awesome it was to actually see leads increase when the bench came in.
     
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  2. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Nurk is a different animal than Whiteside. What really separates him is his basketball IQ. He’s going to be a big time addition and will open the playbook back up. He should start.

    Collins will help Hassan out. I wanna see those two paired up. I’d also consider moving Melo to the three in some lineups with Nurk/Whiteside and Collins in the front court.

    Trent is gonna step up, he’s made for big games. You can just tell.

    Biggest question mark for me is backup PG. I could see Simons the odd man out with CJ handling the ball with that second unit. Not ideal, but I’m not sure Simons is ready for the moment. That could mean some spot minutes for Nas/Gabriel. I hope Nas picks up his shooting where it left off, because that shot was looking nice, and we already know what he brings on the other end/on the boards.

    My rotation

    Dame
    CJ
    Ariza
    Melo
    Nurk

    CJ
    Trent
    Zach
    Whiteside

    Nas/Gabriel/Simons pick up the rest

    Portland had 10 guys average at least 15 minutes last year in the playoffs, and were deeper this year, so a 10 man rotation is likely.
     
  3. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    The amount of wide open threes that combo would give up is scary.
     
  4. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    More than we were already giving up? The amount of wide-open '3's we were giving up was an abomination.
     
  5. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    I have come to the realization that we are not a good defensive team whoever is out there. At least they'd be fun to watch on the offensive end.
     
  6. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    I think that changes with Zach and Nurk shoring up the middle.
     
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  7. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

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    I agree that in this must win format, they need to consider taking Simons out of the rotation.
     
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  8. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

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    An Ariza / Collins / Nurk frontline could potentially be a 75th percentile or better defensive group to be honest.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2020
  9. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I agree that would be somewhat interesting to watch on offense.

    You don't think personnel has an impact on defensive production?
     
  10. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I don't see why putting out a slower, bigger lineup would not increase the amount of open threes we give up.

    Where did the Blazers rank in the league this year at open three attempts given up? I'm assuming it's bad, just not sure how bad.
     
  11. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    I think if we have a better defender, in Nurkic, in the middle, it wouldn't require as much rotation elsewhere, cutting back on a lot of those open 3s. Just one thought
     
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  12. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    I believe Collins helps with that as well. He's got length but also the mobility to close out and at least somewhat stay with guys a little smaller on the perimeter. Gabriel is the best big at that but he likely won't sniff minutes for the rest of the season.
     
  13. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

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    3rd most in terms of raw 3pt attempts.

    Only Toronto and Milwaukee give up more, but at a lower percentage. Both do a better job giving up those looks to the right guys and more of them are likely late in the clock as well.

    https://stats.nba.com/teams/opponent-shots-closest-defender-10/?Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular Season&CloseDefDistRange=6+ Feet - Wide Open&sort=FG3A&dir=1
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2020
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  14. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Awesome, thank you. Pretty bad! Interesting the teams who give up more are among the best in the NBA and many teams near the bottom of this list aren't very good. Surprises me a little bit.

    Also interesting to me that Toronto and Milwaukee's opponents aren't as good at making wide open threes. Maybe they're leaving the right people open, or maybe that's a lot like the FT% defense stat and we just had some bad luck.

    Still not convinced playing Whiteside and Nurk together would improve that number.
     
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  15. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    It's who those teams leave open. Stotts thought it was a good idea to leave Curry open. Budenholzer and Nurse seem to have a different (better/winning) opinion as to whom to leave open in their game plans.
     
  16. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    I think Ariza and Trent Jr are better defenders than our stats show this season because they didn't play first half of the season much. Baze was super inefficient on offense, Mario couldn't shoot...couldn't pass...tried hard on defense...was starting to play better but Trent Jr made a leap this season and Ariza showed he can still hoop and play big minutes
     
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  17. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    I'm no analytics guy, but to imagine taking the NBA's leading shot blocker OFF the floor and you would become a better defensive team!?!?
     
  18. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

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    Hassan is the better pure rim protector for sure.

    Nurk helps our defense in more subtle ways imo. Better positional defender, far more physical and smarter with his help around the rim.

    Shows up most in defensive rebounding impact metrics.

    Adjusted defensive rebounding rate (5-year sample): Nurk 29th, Hassan 366th.

    http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm5?id=-756193914
     
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  19. damianlillard

    damianlillard Well-Known Member

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    I think he was talking about 3 point defense. Whiteside is an elite shot blocker, no one is denying that. But he drop by in the pick and roll pretty far meaning other players have to step in a little more. While Nurkic isn’t as great as a shot blocker, he is elite in the pick and roll defense. He rotate and time everything so well that other players don’t have to worry about leaving their man. Also one last thing Whiteside block shots toward outbound meaning that block is ineffective since the other team get the ball back. Nurkic forces block shot off of the backboard or forces tough shot around the rim so that his teammates have a chance to get the ball back
     
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  20. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    imagine how many shots he's going to block against bench 5s....we'll dominate with Nurk and Hassan...Nurk however is the better passer from the high post and finisher at the rim..Nurk is a triple double threat
     
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