OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting

There's an article in the NYT this morning where an epidemiologist gives a "back of the envelope" estimate that there are approximately 3,000 new covid-19 infections each night associated with the protests and riots in the US these past 10 days. We should start seeing the cases showing up in the stats in a week or so.

 

it's possibly going to be a two-fer-one scenario. The start of the protests coincide with economic re-opening in terms of timing. Bad stacked upon bad when if comes to the virus

I'm keeping my eye on this chart:



http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

we started re-opening toward the end of May and that's the low point of that arc. It's been headed up for about 9-10 days now. Testing has increased just a little so the new case spike isn't about increased testing.

the good news, IMO, is the rate of new hospitalizations in Oregon:



now, hospitalizations will lag 3-5 weeks behind real events so we'll need to see what this looks like at the end of June

 

???...any idea what he bases these "estimates" on?

 

A summary of ineptness and lies. How people can stand behind this serial lying bullshitter is shocking.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/tru...claimed-us-100000-milestone/story?id=70888441

 

The article doesn’t provide any specifics:

“In what he called a back-of-the-envelope estimate, Trevor Bedford, an expert on the virus at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, wrote on Twitter that each day of protests would result in about 3,000 new infections. Over several weeks, as each infected person infected just under one other person on average — the current U.S. transmission rate — those infections would in turn lead to 15,000 to 50,000 more, and 50 to 500 eventual deaths. Given the racial disparities so far in the pandemic, he noted, those deaths will be disproportionately among black people. “Societal benefit of continued protests must be weighed against substantial potential impacts to health,” he wrote.

Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard, agreed that those projections were reasonable, and said in an email that Dr. Bedford had done “a service” by making an approximate estimate with explicit assumptions.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/...te=1&user_id=6ea5e1279d6e474cb67d516d359a8e8c

 

I have no proplem with peoples rights to peacefully protest, but I'm just not sure if now is the best time to be doing it as we are still in the middle of a very dangerous pandemic and stuff like this can possibly set us all the way back and continually put more people at risk. All it takes is one protester to contract it and take it back to their community and then bam, it's everywhere.

 

What I meant to ask was how either of those " experts" differentiate between the people who recently went back to work, versus the people who recently were marching? If infected, how would they know if people became infected through returning to work or if they were infected by marching?

 

He's the reason why I believe that abortions in some cases should be retroactive.

 

Like I said, the article doesn't give any real insight as to how he made his guesstimate, but my assumption would be that he's using data on number of estimated current infections per capita, estimates of number of people at the protests, transmission rates when in proximity out of doors, etc. I don't think anyone expects that people showing up at the hospital in a week or two will have a tag around them saying, "infected at demonstration", but I do think that it's inevitable that there will be a dramatic uptick in cases because of the protests. You couldn't write a much worse script from an epidemiology standpoint. Lots of people gathering in close proximity, many not wearing face masks or unable to keep them on throughout the demonstration, the increased spread of virus due to yelling and/or coughing due to tear gas and smoke, people arrested and sent to jails on crowded buses, etc. The virus doesn't give a crap about how important or justified your intentions were for being at the protests.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/612796/

America Is Giving Up on the Pandemic

Businesses are reopening. Protests are erupting nationwide. But the virus isn’t done with us.

 

Pending on election results, good chance it would be a great year. As long as that idiot is not in power, very likely, yes.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...irus-patients-after-state-reopened-early.html

Texas reports a record high number of hospitalized coronavirus patients after state reopened early

 

trump is such an idiot as he acts like the USA is creating new jobs where as this is just some people returning to work that already had jobs. The real numbers will be in the fall as there will be many businesses that won't be reopening

 

SERIOUSLY, THESE PEOPLE SHOULDN'T EVEN BE ALLOWED TO TAKE OUR FUCKING TEMPERATURE, LET ALONE TELL US TO BE IN LOCKDOWN

 

Evidently you've forgotten that we're still learning more and more about this virus every day.

 

LOOKS LIKE THEY KNOW JACK SHIT ABOUT IT. GOD DAMNED, THESE SCIENTISTS ARE FOOKING MORONS!

 

He forgot to add that George Floyd would be proud!

 

lol...one more time "we're still learning more and more bout this virus everyday day" .

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/06/08/trump-rally-coronavirus-307496

Trump to restart MAGA rallies this month despite coronavirus

The president and his team believe the massive protests in recent weeks will make it harder for critics to single him out.