Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

Not to mention that Biden/Trump are neck and neck in Texas.

Think about that. Last time a Democrat won Texas was in 1976 (Jimmy Carter) and with Covid-19 ravaging Houston - I would not be surprised to see Texas turning blue...

 

and , a Fox news poll:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...large-lead-over-trump-but-it-could-disappear/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-bidens-polling-lead-is-different-from-clintons-in-2016/





https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/her...mp-compares-with-past-presidential-races.html

The biggest difference, imho - is that in 2016 we had no idea how either one of them would be as a president and what the outcome would be. In this election we know for sure what the Trump presidency looks like. Biggest unemployment since WW2, More deaths compared to WW1, Biggest divide and the feeling that America's place on the international stage is getting smaller and less significant by the minute.

I am not saying a Trump comeback is impossible, but the only several ways it happens imho are:

1. There is a magical eradication of Covid-19 and magical economy recovery (not likely)

2. We find something horrible about Biden that we have not known so far that paints him in an even worse light than Trump (Hard to imagine given what we know about Trump and Biden's many years in politics)

3. This country has a lot more idiots than we have seen even in 2016 (I still believe in most of the American people, so not likely).

 

I don't have those numbers, but an important point is that even when Clinton had her largest leads (around 8 points), she never broke 50% nationally or in the Midwest battleground states. That's important because it meant that there were enough undecideds that could cost her the election. Biden is over 50% support, which means Trump needs to not only win over the vast majority of the undecideds (which usually break against an incumbent), he also needs to peel some current Biden voters.

 

Some pretty numbers, courtesy of 538:



It's A. bad news for Trump that Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Iowa (!) and Texas (!!) are battleground states and B. even worse news for him that he's trailing in all of them except Texas, which is still almost tied.

If the election were today, Trump would assuredly lose in a landslide. Biden's lead is too massive for polling errors or Electoral College messiness to save him. This type of environment would also likely lead to the Democrats winning the Senate back (and padding their advantage in the House).

Republican hopes are now pinned entirely to the hope that the national environment changes by November, in Trump's favor. That's possible, but Trump isn't moderating or doing anything to suggest he's trying to win over anyone but his hardcore base.

 

Lucky for him that he doesn't have to, eh? Trump's doing all the campaigning for Biden.

 

Absolutely. Biden should take a page out of Hillary 2016 and assume that everyone is voting for him and he has no need to do any campaigning.

 

Mags? Oh Mags?

where art thou?

Don’t dodge the bet you came up with when the time comes

PS. Venmo works best

 

MAGS has been tasked with getting Parler up and running.

 

Clinton lost because she had favorables nearly as bad as Trump. Biden wins as long as he doesn't make himself wildly unpopular. 2020 isn't like 2016--2016 had no incumbent, and those are what's known as choice elections. 2020 has an incumbent and those always end up as referendum elections--how do you feel about how the current President is doing? Trump just keeps digging a deeper and deeper hole for himself. His approval rating has been dropping consistently ever since the rally-around-the-flag effect from the pandemic ended months ago.

So yes, Biden actually probably does have a successful strategy in not campaigning. Hillary Clinton had a completely different type of election to compete in. Also, her mistake was not that she didn't campaign--she did lots of campaigning. Her mistake was trying to expand her electoral map to push states like Georgia and Texas towards the Democrats, instead of trying to lock up the Midwestern battleground states that traditionally went blue. She did push Georgia and Texas to be bluer, but not enough to win them, meanwhile she lost those battleground states by tiny margins. The perfect way to win more votes but lose the Electoral College. You should at least understand the history you're trying to use to be mocking!

 

I think Trump is probably going to lose. However, I'd love to see the Dems fuck this up again.

The meltdown would be glorious.

 

It's possible Biden could fuck things up, but the easier and safer strategy is to occasionally release some generic platitudes and let Trump hang himself. Seems like that's what he's going with.

 

I didn't. But Trump spent close to 10 minutes describing how hard it is to walk down mild incline ramps at his Tulsa rally, so this isn't shocking to hear.

 

Maybe he should dedicate his 2nd term to building walls around ramps and have China pay for it.

 

If the election was today, do you vote trump or Biden? No explanation needed or wanted.