Will Ariza's decision influence Portland's?

for a good reason, Ariza decided not to play in the Orlando circus. It made sense for him but it did 'hurt' Portland's playoff hopes

to review, Ariza has a 12.8M salary next season, but only 1.8M is guaranteed. Because of Covid, the deadline for that option for Portland has been moved from June 30 to Oct. 18

the old projection for next season's salary cap was a 116 million cap and about a 139M tax threshold. The NBA has not issued any official new projection yet, but optimistic guesses are the cap and tax lines will be about the same next season as this season. But they could easily be lower

currently, it's a 109M cap and a 132.6M tax line

theoretically, the Blazers could have 16M in cap-space if they waived Ariza. But that's before Hood and Hezonja have exercised their options. If they both opt-in (likely), that cuts the space in half. And it's before accounting for Portland's free agents: Whiteside, Melo, & Gabriel. The QO for Gabriel is 1.9M. In other words, Portland practically has no cap-space

if they keep Ariza and Hood + Hezonja opt-in, Portland would be around 114M in salary. Leaving them optimistically with 18M in margin under the tax line. But they'd only have 10 players. Keepin Gabriel would put them at about 116M with 11 players

and they'd have the full-mle of around 10M to use, plus Bird Rights to Whiteside; and about 16M to spend without going over the tax line. Now, about that full-MLE: if a team uses more than the tax-payer MLE portion of the full-MLE (about 5.7M), they get hard-capped at the apron (about 138M). So then, it could be that the Blazers only intend to use 5.7M MLE.

if Whiteside is re-signed for say 12M (I'm kind of skeptical about that); Portland could theoretically re-sign Melo for 3-4M or so (why?) and fill out the roster with vet minimum contracts

the 'monkey-wrench' to all this is I haven't accounted for Portland's 2020 first round draft pick. That could add anywhere from 2.5-4M or more in salary depending on where Portland is picking. So the before tax margin is even smaller....with Ariza

Waiving Ariza would give the Blazers 11M more in under-the-tax margin. But Ariza did have a positive impact on the team. At the same time, Portland has Hood, Little, Trent, Hezonja, and Gabriel to man the SF position. That's a lot of depth and that 11M in breathing room under the tax line might be really valuable

what will the Blazers do?

 

If they dont make the playoffs I think the chances they waive Ariza are good as they will more than likely try and develop Little and Gabriel at the 3 along with maybe Melo if he stays. They also could include the first round pick with a player and go after another legit 3?

 

Fuck Trevor Ariza.

 

I'm glad he did what he did. Yay individual choice!!!

 

Depends on who is available for the MLE. Hood seems to be ahead of schedule, so we might have our starting SF spot covered. Before he got hurt this season, he was exactly what we wanted out of that spot-- size, great shooting, and decent defense. But that achilles is a mess to return from, so who knows how long he might really take to return to full strength? I still want someone decent as insurance (someone like Ariza/Crowder/etc). If Trevor is the best option, I want him back.

This decision he made to not play now should not affect ours at all. You never want to be a villain in the eyes of agents.

 

We will probably have 2 rookies next year.

 

One option nobody has mentioned is having Ariza opt out and offer him a lower per season salary and maybe a 2 or 3 year contract with a team option for the 3rd. Maybe a 3 year 24-27 mil a year contract or slightly above the TPE. Of course a lot depends on Hood as well as Little's development.

 

Is this inside info? Is this the player Eric hooked up with?

 

I do not think Ariza opting out makes a difference. Only way I see that changing is if someone plays better at the 3 during the COVID championships. How Hood recovers also be key.

Ideally, we release him but maintain his early bird rights. Do not believe he gets above the MLE but he may sacrifice money to play on the team he chooses. If money were not an issue, would love to see either of our centers, Collins, and Ariza play.

 

To me depends on where Hood is in his recovery and depending if Melo resign with us. Then really depends on when the season starts too. I see if Melo dont resign with us I believe we keeps Ariza.

 

Ariza cant "opt out", the Blazers would have to waive him. Also, pretty sure the Blazers wouldnt be able to just resign him. We wouldnt have his bird rights so wed have to use the MLE on him, and theres the chance he'd just sign with a different team. Plus, he'd still get $7M ish, so theres no point to risk losing him in free agency to save $4M.

 

Ariza doesnt have the option to opt out...

 

According to Spotrac, this is correct. He signed a two year deal worth $25M with $14M guaranteed. His contract last season was valued @ $12.2M, meaning he has $1.8M owed him if the Blazers were to waive him. Neither side has an option on his contract next season, so it’s either pay him $12.8M and play him or waive him and eat $1.8M. Might have value as an ending contract at the deadline?

 

Definitely would be useful at the deadline. There's 0 reason to let go of him.

 

He opted out the restart.

 

That was a choice the league gave every player about going in the bubble. It doesn’t have anything to do with next year’s contract.

 

Arent we talking about his contract? I was referring to that.

 

Didn’t he opt out because it was the only time he could see his son? I applaud him for it and would literally choose family over work every time in that situation.
Is there more to the story I don’t know?