I should have been more clear. We can't technically tie with them since we will have played one more game than them (74 vs 73). It effectively works as a tiebreaker of sorts when looking at percentages.
Actually @brooklynballer think i've been thinking about this wrong. Memphis actually are the ones at an advantage if we have the same number of final wins. My bad. We have this advantage however on New Orleans and San Antonio.
I think Toronto likely beats Memphis, their B teams is still very good. But Boston and Milwaukee may rest guys, they are not as deep, so Memphis could easily go 2-1. We may have to go undefeated to get #8... and easily could miss the playin altoghether with more than one loss. Phoenix is playing great and all their opponents have had starters rest. SAS only have 3 games left they could likewise win all those. Lets hope we beat LAC as any game we could play terrible or the opponent is on fire and have a fluky loss.... I don't want tall of PHI/DAL/BKN to have to be must win games; followed again by needing two win two of a playin vs Memphis... 5 straight wins will be very difficult.
Current record Current W L MEM 33 37 PDX 32 38 PHX 30 39 SAS 30 38 NOP 29 39 SAC 29 39 Best possible record Best W L % MEM 36 37 0.493 PDX 36 38 0.486 PHX 34 39 0.466 SAS 33 38 0.465 NOP 33 39 0.458 SAC 33 39 0.458 Worst possible record Worst W L % MEM 33 40 0.452 PDX 32 42 0.432 PHX 30 43 0.411 SAS 30 41 0.423 NOP 29 43 0.403 SAC 29 43 0.403 Remaining schedule; Date 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 MEM>> --- --- TOR --- BOS --- MIL PDX>> --- LAC PHI --- DAL --- BKN PHX>> --- MIA --- OKC PHI --- DAL SAS>> --- --- NOP --- HOU --- UTH NOP>> WSH --- SAS --- SAC --- ORL SAC>> BKN --- HOU --- NOP --- LAL Ending win percentage if each team has this many additional losses; Team 0 1 2 3 MEM 0.493 0.479 0.466 0.452 PDX 0.486 0.473 0.459 0.446 PHX 0.466 0.452 0.438 SAS 0.465 0.451 0.437 NOP 0.458 0.444 SAC 0.458 0.444
Kings are eliminated from #8 spot now. Portland needs 1 win (or 1 Kings loss) to eliminate them from the #9 position.
Also, Memphis only needs 1 win, or 1 loss each by Spurs, Phx, & Pels to clinch the #9 spot. In that scenario, Memphis and Suns will have the exact same record - but Grizz get the spot based on head2head.
I think we want the Pelicans to beat Washington today... then they have something to play for against the Spurs and could maybe beat them. If the Spurs and Phoenix each have one more loss we will get 9th even with two losses. Spurs last two games are against Houston and Utah... Utah and Denver seem to be doing unusual tanking for playoff spots so maybe those two Spurs games see opponent starters sit and the Spurs win both.
Its crazy that the 538 predictor has NOP with a 7% chance of the playoffs but PHX with 3% https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/ It seems like they are setting the probablity of a win based on opponents attributes that lead to its season record.... thats totally worthless with all the resting and tanking for position going on. It would be more accurate to just list every game as 50/50 chance of each team winning.
NOP needs to win out, have Phoenix lose a game, and either; Memphis go 0-3 or PDX go 1-3 I don't see how there is a 7% chance of that all happening... seems more like 1 out of 100 Phoenix needs to win out and have either; Memphis go 0-3 or PDX go 2-2 That seems much more likely... probably 15% or such.
Correct me if I'm wrong: we can eliminate Sacramento with a win tomorrow. Also- if NO loses tonight, we can eliminate them too. Because our record the worse we could be is 33-41 and the best they could be is 32-40. Pretty cool. Go Blazers!
Sacramento cannot catch Memphis. They would need to win out 3-0, have all three of; us go 0-4 Phoenix go 2-2 Spurs go 1-2 I consider them eliminated... thats probably a 1 in 1000 chance of all happening.
Omg this thread is spinning my head around so fast. Someone let me know when we are a lock or out mathematically. Lol. I do appreciate the efforts to keep it straight though!
It doesn’t matter. It’s impossible for us to tie them since we played a different amount of games before restart.
