I can’t remember who said it, but they were right.......ONCE AGAIN, when they said it doesn’t matter what anyone else does, all we have to do is take care of our wins.
Yeah if we win out and so does everyone else, we are in a good spot because we can beat the Grizz two times in a row. If we win out and the Suns or Spurs sneak in, I think we can definitely take one of two from either of them. Obviously best case scenario is that we win out and the Grizz lose one... then we just have to beat the Grizz once and I think we'd do that pretty handily in the first game, then have a day to rest before the playoffs start.
Suns are hot. They've won 6 in a row and their average MOV has been 11. Glad Portland doesn't play them
There's 8 games left in the battle for 8th/9th seeds. Thus 2 to the power of 8 permutations of possible win loss outcomes. This comes out to 256 distinct outcomes. I ran out all of these possible outcomes in excel. Then calculated ending record, win percentage, ranked for seed, and adjusted for Memphis having tiebreaker over Phoenix. The result is as follows, I'll explain for Memphis then list percentages for each team. Memphis was the 8th seed in 169 possibilities, the 9th seed in 65 possibilities, out of the playin in 22 possibilities. Thus memphis is the 8th seed 66.0% of the time, the 9th seed 25.4% of the time, out of the playin 8.6% of the time. Team% 8th 9th out Mem 66.0 25.4 8.6 Pdx 25.8 33.6 40.6 Phx 4.7 25.0 70.3 SAS 3.5 16.0 80.5 Now these probabilities effectively are based on each game bring 50/50 of who would win. I think the actual odds are way different but accounting for that variance would make my 256 outcomes exponentially more complicated to calculate. I do think this is a better method than Kevin Pelton using real plus minus though.
We can clinch a spot in the play-in if we win and SA/PHX both lose. Come on, basketball Gods. You owe us after Saturday. MEM losing would be even bigger if we want #8. Spurs-Rockets at 2 pm EST Suns-Sixers at 4:30 pm EST Grizzlies-Celtics at 5 pm EST Blazers-Mavs at 6:30 pm EST How the hell am I supposed to get any work done today?
I have a feeling Dallas is really going to try to beat us today, then when they play Phoenix, they will give them the win just because reasons.
So at the moment it's still possible we could be facing any of Memphis, Phoenix or San Antonio? (Or is it impossible for the Spurs to finish above Memphis?) Whom would we want most? I say Memphis, obviously. Phoenix would be pretty scary given how well they've clicked in the bubble, and the Spurs are always insanely well-prepared.
Also still possible the Blazers don't make it at all. I would rather they worry about that first but if there was a choice give the Blazers the 8th spot vs Memphis.
Gah! All these potential scenarios are overwhelming my senior citizen brain! If we lose today, are we officially eliminated, or just realistically screwed ?
screwed, but not eliminated. Especially if PHX and SA also lose. Rules of thumb to simplify: Root for MEM, SA, PHX to lose.
James Harden is not playing today. Wow, that loss against the Clippers trying to tank is REALLY going to come back to haunt us.
i hate having to rely on other teams. Ya we control our own destiny for now, but we have essentially 0 margin for error. Today is just reinforcing my hate for Houston and even Westbrook. dude is absolute trash when he has the ball in his hands 24/7
