Around the NBA - the 2020 Playoff Edition!

First off John Collins plays for a team where they depend on him greatly. Much different situation. In his 3 seasons he has played nearly 5000 professional NBA mins.
Bam Adebayo has played a total over 5600 professional minutes and has been largely uninjured.

Now understand something here. This conversation is not about trashing either John Collins or Bam Adebayo. I personally would have loved getting either and having them in a Blazer uniform. They have both been healthy and they are both great character guys But in contrast this is about where Zach is and where he was taken in the draft. Bam Coming from Kentucky where he had a stellar career and JC coming from Wake Forest where he also played very well and had a great college run. There is a legitimate conversation here as to why they were not recruited higher? Believe me when i tell you i am certain more than just Olshey is thinking "Wow i wiffed on that!".

I use a couple of old time metrics that a bunch of the newer "Stat Guys" don't like much anymore but they have always worked for me. Games started and minutes played give you a look at not only their overall experience but what their prospective team is asking them to do. Remember the Blazers had a great defending PF in Aminu that worked as hard as any player in the league for Zach's first two years for him to excel and grow into his position. We all watched various times when Zach came in and provided a huge spark and showed flashes of what he is capable of in this league. He is absolutely no Meyers Leonard.
Zach has played a grand total of 2691 mins and has started a total of 12 games where JC has started 126 and Bam has started 119 games. That alone will give you a little look at the level the game has slowed down for each of them. Zach pretty much lost his entire 3rd year which was supposed to be his "Coming Out" party and actually has been if you look at just how well the team performed when he was playing the 10-3 record speaks volumes.

Now lets look at your stats. Another poster said you cherry pick and in this case it seems as though you might have fallen victim to that. You took Bam's totals this year but seem to have left off Career. Bam's career numbers are only 10.5 points per game. Zach is at 7 this year. 5.7 for career. But how can we honestly compare these numbers when one player was out with a shoulder injury the entire year and then injured his foot in the playoffs and the other just logged a team high 44 minutes and was asked to be the #1 option on offense. I'm betting Zach if asked to play 44 minutes as a number one option on offense and was told to stay out of the paint and not get fouls because they needed him on offense he could easily get 26 points and just defensive rebounding alone he could get 10. If he had the ball in his hands as much as Bam i'm betting 6 assists would happen without question. Way closer than three tiers below don't you think?

The portion of my post YOU highlighted said

Then you added this

Nobody said he is at the same level but to think his numbers will not get better with a full season in a starting role under him is even Loopier than anyone saying he will improve. What is even more telling is that you actually think Bam's numbers will continue to be "Three Tiers" your words not mine above Zach Collins. My bet here is Zach will get to around that 10-12 points and hopefully 8-10 rebounds a game in this system. but while on the floor Nurks numbers will go way up as well as help Dame create "WINS" on the court. Not every player can be the number one option or even the second option. But you will also see games when Zach will be the mismatch and he will score 20+ points get 3-4 blocks dish out 5-6 assists and pull in 10 rebounds. If he gets and stays healthy it will happen. Mark my words.

Now would you like to speak about 3 pt shooting or do we want to leave that out? Because Zach is on the floor as a fourth option on offense. He will be asked while playing with Damian Lillard, CJ McCollumn and Nurkic to spread the floor and be able to hit a three point shot. Zach is career 32% but this year 37% shooter from 3 pt. Do you want to look at Bam's numbers? Now JC can shoot the three no question. But again the guy isn't playing as a fourth option on offense now is he?

 

wow...that got you rolling. Good job. Be careful of multiple paragraphs though, some here might condemn you for it

let's simplify a little: can we agree that right now there's a really significant gap between the level of Zach's development and the level of development of Adebayo and J. Collins?

PER: Adebayo 20.3....John Collins 23.5....Zach 9.9
TS%: Adebayo .598....John Collins .659....Zach .538
FT Rate: Adebayo .484....John Collins .248....Zach .118
Reb Rate: Adebayo 17.0%....John Collins 16.4%....Zach 12.4%
winshare/48: Adebayo .168....John Collins .174....Zach .052
BPM: Adebayo 3.4....John Collins 3.1....Zach -3.1

yeah, that's pretty significant

now, that's just a snapshot of the just completed regular season and that's probably unfair to Zach because of the injury and only an 11 game sample size. Generally, those numbers are lower than his career numbers and he'd compared a little better if I'd used last season as his template. But we just don't know at this point if last season was a sign of things to come or a high water mark

nonetheless, that's where things were when the season ended. Besides that, several people have been harping on Portland's 8-3 record with Zach this season as some kind of gauge of Zach's impact. It's a dumb gauge of course, but since that's out there then it's a little more justified to use Zach's numbers this year in the comparison
********************************************************

* the room for improvement for all three players: I'll concede that the season Zach had theoretically leaves him with room for more improvement next season than the other two. That's a theory though. Without looking it up I believe all three players are within 4 months of each other in ages, so all three players have plenty of room for upside. And that's going to be true every off-season for the next 5-6 years. Hell, Dame improved this season from last season and he was 29 last season.
*********************************************************

* playing time: Zach and JC have played in the same number of games; Adebayo has played in about 60 more. Adebayo has earned his minutes, in large part by beating out Whiteside for the starting role. JC had to beat out Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala for the start. Zach had to beat out Aminu. Doesn't really look like any were just handed minutes until Zach was to start this season
**********************************************************

* opportunity: I disagree with the notion that players will post better numbers if they have bigger roles on crappy teams. On the surface of raw volume stats, sure; more shots = more points. But relevant context chases that assumption off the court. Mediocre players with big roles will post mediocre efficiency and mediocre impact rates. A player who will post an average TS% is more likely to post that average rate with more opportunity. Just look at CJ. Adebayo and JC have improved each season in efficiency and impact rates even as their roles increased. That should not be dismissed from the equation just because Zach hasn't had that opportunity yet. You guys keep saying Zach has a different role than the other two. I agree; Adebayo and JC have elevated themselves from role-players to legitimate starters and core pieces. They've earned that distinction. Zach is still a role player
************************************************************

* potential: it probably seems like I'm trashing Zach but I'm not. IMO, I'm pushing back against overreaches in comparisons. "Potential" is a relatively neutral term. I have the potential to have a good day right now but my wife can change that at any time. Potential is standing in a hall with a bunch of doors. Nobody knows what's behind the doors.

If you guys were arguing that next year, Zach could be better than Aminu I wouldn't have engaged. Zach was certainly better at defending Millsap in one game than Aminu was in 5. That would be Zach developing into a better role player than he is, and that's credible. But when the target is a player like Adebayo or JC that just seems a bridge too far to me

 

Neil should be judged compared to other GMs. Is he doing better than average for the pick range he is given? Id say yes. I have plenty of other problems with Neils roster construction and shitty contracts he gives out, the draft is the one area I'm most happy with him.

I swear posters here expect him to draft the perfect player at every pick.

Its like criticizing a professional poker player because he doesnt get a royal flush.

The best drafting GMs miss all the time. Its a very inexact process. Look at all the shitty picks in the top 10 of Zach class. There's only two that are certainly superior and a number are total busts. Look at half the league that passed on Giannis and Kawhi.

 

I can respect your response. I absolutely do not agree with it on many levels but that doesn't mean i'm right and you are wrong.
Just gonna agree to disagree here.
Take care. Hope you enjoy your Labor Day.

 

This is fun:
https://stephennoh.github.io/nbadefensequiz/

 

Kyle Lowry with a consistent 10 points on 3/8 shooting.

 

Impressive performance at both ends by the Celts.

 

nobody expects him to be "perfect" in the draft

but considering that the Blazers are a small market and not a free agent destination, he does need to be good, especially in the 1st round

Olshey has been GM for 8 seasons and 8 drafts. Setting Dame aside because of situation, Olshey has had access to 7 first round picks, plus several 2nd round picks

in the playoffs against the Lakers, the only 1st round pick who scored any points was CJ. Trent and Simons were the only 2nd round picks that scored, and most of the points Simons scored were in garbage time

contrast that with Denver who drafted Jokic, Murray, Gary Harris, Michael Porter, Torey Craig, and Monte Morris all contributing to the rotation

If Olshey is going to bust out in the free agent market while refusing to risk anything substantial in trades, he needs to be close to elite at managing 1st round picks and he's just been mediocre

 

got 9 of 10.

wonder how terry would do

 

Well said. Denver’s management is amazing

 

Jokic is so freaking amazing on offense, but dude is the worst P&R defender in the league. Maybe worse than Whiteside

 

Well if he’s the worst then yes, he’s worse than Whiteside. No maybe about it.

 

Simons was a first round pick.

 

I'm not sure why you would set aside Neils best draft pick in Dame but harp on his worsts picks?

Murray #7 Porter #14 Harris #19 were all good picks. Craig wasn't drafted. Jokic and Morris were 2nd round picks. Yes the Nuggets have done awesome. They also had playoff droughts to acquire talent Neil hasn't had.

For every Nuggets success there are many more franchises that have done shit drafting and many often in the lottery; Kings, Wizards, Suns, Magic, TWolves, Pistons, Cavs, Bulls, Hornets, Knicks, etc.

 

I said that Dylan Brooks was the steal of that group, was a lottery talent, and was played at the wrong position (forward) in college... There's guesswork to every projection, but what amazes me is how often the experts miss stuff that's hiding in broad daylight.

You conveniently left out the injured Collins and Little who missed the series, but counted Porter who missed all of last year and has injury red flags that suggest he'll miss much more time in the future. (Olshey would have been grilled for taking that risk.) Unless you're not even counting Zach because he technically wasn't our pick, in which case you have to look at how many 1st round picks we've even had since Lillard. Hint: CJ and Hollis-Jefferson are the only two aside from the Swanigan fiasco. RHJ netted us Plumlee who netted us Nurkic, so it quickly gets complicated which scoring to include if you're being selective like that.