Exclusive Official 2020 Draft Thread

At best he's Sefalosha or Roberson.

 

Woj says draft date locked in for Nov 18.

 

Nesmith will likely only be the only one of those three available.

 

if he shoots 35% from 3pt for his carreer, he could easily be an impact role player if his defense and rebounding are as good as advertised. that is what sefolosha did, as well as starting for the thunder in the nba finals against lebron's miami heat. i'd be pretty tickled if our #16 produced a player that impactful, or an all nba defensive stud as in pre injury roberson.

 

Trade the pick, we don’t even play the last 2 first rounders we drafted.

 

Agreed. The list of previous players selected@#16 show the long odds on an impact rotational selection and even longer odds on one ready to contribute immediately.

 

This. Since CJ, who is the last 1st round pick to be a solid contributor?

 

So you're saying unless it's a center from the former Yugoslavia, it's a wasted pick?

 

nope, just that lower round picks over last twenty years, trend toward players that will be less likely to impact their selection teams' success. there will be exceptions. there may be a greater value in the pick's perceived value to another team in asset acquisition.

 

Rozier, Nurkic, Vucevic, Young, Turkoglu ... that's five very good players at 16 in the past twenty years. One in four doesn't seem like bad odds for mid-round. Just gotta do your homework.

 

It makes absolute 0 sense to only look at the 16th pick when doing this historical assessment. How about players drafted after 16 in recent years? All of these guys were available at #16 and would have helped us in the playoffs this year:

2019
20. Matisse Thybulle
21. Brandon Clarke
25. Little
29. Keldon Johnson
41. Eric Paschall

2018
17. Donte DiVincenzo
19. Kevin Heurter
20. Josh Okogie
24. Simons
26. Landry Shamet
34. Devonte Graham
36. Mitchell Robinson
37. Trent Jr.

2017.
19. John Collins
22. Jarrett Allen
23. OG Anunoby
27. Kyle Kuzma
30. Josh Hart
45. Dillon Brooks
51. Monte Morris

etc etc

 

Sure, the odds go up if you look at everything 16th and later, but that's more hindsight than scouting. Hits and misses accumulate. I don't see that making any more sense than looking at the results of just one pick over the years.

Edit..."odds" probably is the wrong word to use there.

 

I think some of us are forgetting that we played guys like Hezonja, Gabriel, and Hoard actual minutes in the playoffs this year due to injuries and foul trouble. We effectively had 6 guys who could actually play on this roster for nearly all of the bubble games.

This team needs some serious infusion of talent, especially athletic, and CHEAP talent. A lot of it will come from Hood/Ariza/Collins returning from their absence, yes, but getting a legit 8th or 9th man who can play immediately should not be out of the realm of possibilities. When Tyler Herro and Grant Williams and Michael Porter Jr. etc etc are all contributing right NOW in the playoffs as rookies, and Gary Trent was our fourth best player in the bubble, you'd think some of us would value the draft more.

 

Read this terrific analysis on the value of a draft pick here by @42N8Bounce : http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/blazers-draft-history-data.358256/

#16 is not a bad place to be, especially if you break this down to tiers. And especially in this draft where there seems to be a lot of average-above average talent, who can contribute now, but no superstars.

 

Olshey sucks tho. Unless it’s a 2nd round pick you have nothing to lose on nobody has faith in him to hit on a decent 1st rounder.

This is a guy who wanted a big in the 2017 draft and graded Zach Collins over Bam when we had 3 picks littered all over the 1st round.

We are wasting our time with Olshey

 

I was the first person to read and "like" his post.

 

sure and i said that there are going to be good players drafted later but the majority of late round pics will not be impactful. especially immediately.

 

no but trading those 25% odds for a known quantity by using the pic to complete a trade was my point. i never said that it wasn't valuable but situational to more immediate roster improvement. don't get me wrong i love the draft and all of the potential there for improvement. our situation MAY offer a better path by including the pick in a trade to a team who's immediacy for improvement, values the cheaper unproven talent potential over an experienced producer in the present.

 

Suppose you had to construct a whole starting five out of players supposedly available around our pick or below (yes, I know, it wouldn't be likely to be very good, at least for a while), what would yours be? Mine:
Frontcourt:
Precious Achiuwa
Tyler Bey
Saddiq Bey

Backcourt:
Tyrell Terry
Theo Maledon

(If you like you can build a bench from projected second-rounders/undrafteds. Mine would be
Leandro Bolmaro
Paul Reed
Grant Riller)