Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

Road Ratt · Nov 1, 2020

This is a real eye opener.

stampedehero · Nov 1, 2020

BigGameDamian said: ↑

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I have my American dream because I voted for a rational thinking sincere human.

stampedehero · Nov 1, 2020

wizenheimer said: ↑

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* " There just hasn’t been any real sign that the race is tightening. If anything, Joe Biden’s margins are expanding slightly in the Upper Midwest. And there isn’t any particular reason to expect the race to tighten when more than 90 million people have already voted and the most important news story — that the United States just set a record for the number of COVID-19 cases in a day — is a negative one for Trump.

In fact, in many states, such as North Carolina, we’ve gotten what are likely to be the final polls of the state from most of the major polling firms. The one important exception is Pennsylvania, which some high-quality pollsters seem to have kept as the last state they’re planning to poll. And those polls could matter quite a bit. Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state (it delivers the 270th electoral vote around 37 percent of the time in our forecast), so any deviation from Biden’s current 5.1-point lead in the polls there — say, if Biden climbs to a 6-point lead or falls to a 4-point lead — could make a fairly big difference in our forecast.

But what we’ve seen so far in Pennsylvania doesn’t suggest much movement in the polls. We’ve gotten two live-caller polls since the debate: A Muhlenberg College poll published this morning had Biden up by 5 points, closely matching our average in the state. And a Quinnipiac University poll had Biden ahead by 7, which is not quite as good for Biden as it might seem — Quinnipiac has generally had friendly results for him this cycle and their previous poll of the state had him up by 7 as well.

And if nothing changes at all in the polls, Biden’s chances of winning will nonetheless increase slightly by Tuesday morning in our forecast. That’s for two reasons:

Trump is still receiving a tiny boost in our forecast based on economic conditions and incumbency, currently amounting to an 0.2-percentage-point shift. But this will fall to 0 percent by Election Day.

Uncertainty in the forecast will also be slightly reduced when we actually make it to Election Day.

That said, Biden’s current lead of 8 to 9 points nationally is quite large given our highly polarized political environment, so maybe a few of the remaining undecided voters will drift to Trump. Don’t be surprised if Biden drops to 86 percent — or jumps to 94 percent — in our final forecast."
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" The Normal-Polling-Error Zone is a place we talked about in 2016, when we told you that Trump was only a normal-sized polling error away from beating Hillary Clinton. What did that mean? It meant that if polls were off by about the amount they’ve been off in past elections — by around 3 points, on average — and the error favored Trump, then he’d probably win the Electoral College. And that’s basically what happened, although the polling was worse in some states than others.

In probability terms, I think of the Normal-Polling-Error Zone as extending from the favorite having anything from around a 60 percent chance up to around an 84 percent chance of winning. That amounts to an error of no more than one standard deviation.Math geeks will know that one standard deviation comprises 68 percent of outcomes, not 84 percent, but since people usually only care about polling errors when the favorite loses (nobody is going to give pollsters that much crap if Biden wins Pennsylvania by 10 points instead of 5, for instance), it’s only the possibility of Trump outperforming his polls that we’re really concerned with.

">1 Or to put it another way, it’s a zone where polling errors big enough for the underdog to win are going to occur quite routinely without anything particularly special having to happen. Polling is a challenging business, and while polls get the outcome right more often than not, nailing every election to within a point or two is hard.

The Zone of Plausibility. This is where we are this year. I think of the Zone of Plausibility as extending out to reflect an error of up to two standard deviations — so, it’s a race where the favorite has somewhere from an 84 percent to 98 percent chance of winning. You wouldn’t consider the underdog winning in an election like this to be a routine occurrence. But, well, it’s plausible, and it isn’t that hard to find precedents for it.

The polls were off by more than 7 points in 1980, for instance, underestimating Ronald Reagan’s margin of victory. (That would likely be enough for Trump to win in an election where he trails in the most likely tipping-point state, Pennsylvania, by 5 points.) Harry Truman beat the final Gallup poll in 1948 by 9 points in an upset victory. And the polls missed by 5 points in 1996, underestimating Bob Dole."
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* " Now, we can debate exactly how applicable those precedents are today. There’s much more polling this year than in 1980 or in 1996. And in 1948, it wasn’t “the polling” that was off since there was just one polling firm, Gallup — maybe if there had been a Quinnipiac poll or something back then, it would correctly have forecasted Truman’s victory.

The point, though, again, is that a Trump win is plausible. And all the other models I’ve seen have Trump within the Zone of Plausibility too, although the Economist’s model, which has his chances at 4 percent, is pushing it a bit.

At the same time, though, a 2016-style polling error wouldn’t be enough for Trump to win. In the chart below — taking a page from The Upshot, which has also been doing this — I’ve taken our final polling averages in 2016 and shown how they compared to the actual results. And then I’ve shown what the results would be based on this year’s polling average if the polls were exactly as wrong as in 2016 in exactly the same states."

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" Takeaway? Joe Biden would win. In fact, he’d win 335 electoral votes, including those in Florida, Georgia and Arizona. A lot of these wins would be close — he’d win by around 2 points in Arizona and Wisconsin, by and less than 1 point in Florida, Georgia and Pennsylvania, so he’d have to sweat a bit, but he’d win.

Meanwhile, although there are a lot of uncertainties this year that our model tries to account for — for instance, whether pollsters are correctly blending the early vote with the Election Day vote — there are also other things that could make a big polling error less likely. For instance, the polls have been very stable so far in the race, and the large number of people who have already voted makes a last-minute shift even less likely. There are also few undecided voters: Joe Biden is polling at above 50 percent in all states that Clinton won except Nevada, plus he clears that line Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania (albeit just barely; he’s at 50.1 percent there) and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Those are enough to give him 273 electoral votes."
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" Still, Trump isn’t in as strong a position as he was in 2016. As you can see in the table above, he’s polling worse than he was against Clinton in every single battleground state. Polls can be wrong — indeed, the whole point of our probabilistic forecast is to tell you the chances of that — but they’re more likely to be wrong when a candidate’s lead is narrower. As of right now, Biden’s lead is large enough that Trump’s chances of winning are 10 percent, considerably lower than the 35 percent chance he had at this point in 2016."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ould-have-to-be-off-by-way-more-than-in-2016/

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obviously, I'm biased. But I have a memory and I remember how worried I was in 2016. I watched Clinton's lead in polls generally cut in half, or greater, after the Comey shit. She had about a 2-3 point lead nationally in polling, and she ended up winning the popular vote by 2.4%. So the polling was accurate. But she was also sinking fast in several state polls of battlegrounds, and the undecided voters in 2016 were 2-3 times more than this time, She also had high negatives. Not only had she lost momentum, she was matched up against an unknown and didn't have any approval advantage

none of those factors are working against Biden this time around and not only are his leads in various states relatively stable, he doesn't have anywhere close to the negatives Clinton had

now, trump and the R's will do everything they can to toss out as many legitimate votes as the courts will allow. That has become their number 1 option over the last 30 years. Suppress as much voting as they can before elections, and shitcan as many as they can after elections. It's an unprincipled despicable strategy, but of course when you don't have morals and don't believe in democracy, only in keeping as much power as you can, it's your go-to move.

I just don't believe it will be enough
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Well Said BGD!! Well Said!!

wizenheimer · Nov 1, 2020

* " The Texas Supreme Court on Sunday denied a Republican-led petition to toss nearly 127,000 ballots cast at drive-thru voting places in the Houston area.

The state’s all-Republican high court rejected the request from a state representative and two GOP candidates without explaining its decision. Their effort to have the Harris County ballots thrown out is still set to be taken up during an emergency hearing in federal court on Monday.

Conservative Texas activists have railed against expanded voting access in Harris County, where a record 1.4 million early votes have already been cast. The county is the nation’s third largest and a crucial battleground in Texas, where President Donald Trump and Republicans are bracing for the closest election in decades on Tuesday.

U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen is expected to rule on the same issue on Monday. Hanen’s decision to hear arguments on the brink of Election Day drew attention from voting rights activists. The Texas Supreme Court also rejected a nearly identical challenge last month."

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/texas-supreme-court-harris-county-ballots_n_5f9f06acc5b60eefc853dace

it's not over...it rarely is when the R's are trying to shit-can D votes. But a total R Texas Supreme Court decided that actual democracy has value

EL PRESIDENTE · Nov 1, 2020

UncleCliffy'sDaddy · Nov 1, 2020

Hopefully what happened to this guy happens to the resident Entertainer In Chief...........

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/video...arthys-downfall-was-accusing-the/?jwsource=cl

BigGameDamian · Nov 1, 2020

BigGameDamian · Nov 1, 2020

BigGameDamian · Nov 1, 2020

China's fault!

Haakzilla · Nov 1, 2020

BigGameDamian said: ↑

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...utter disgrace!

kjironman1 · Nov 1, 2020

UncleCliffy'sDaddy said: ↑

Excellent post but.......I remember the same people who are making fun of “Never Trumpers” losing their collective shit when Obama got elected. Things got very nasty (and very racist) until the so called “Cancel Culture” (otherwise known as “respectful Americans”) rightly called bullshit on their tantrums. Then that shit went (barely) underground until Trump tripped into office. Then it became okay to be a loud, virulent and obnoxious racist because that is obviously what makes America “great again”. And as a veteran and senior citizen who has watched all manner of goofbutts, idiots and con artists plunder our government over my lifetime, “patriot” and “patriotism” are four letter words......and dog whistles for those who see the USA as their own giant department store to be plundered. We have gone so far over to the dark side I’m not sure there is any path left back to the light. Trump and his minions have kicked this country in the nuts and have laughed all the way to the bank while doing it......
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I think you are kind of missing my point of the post. I really like @Orion Bailey and respect his view. I was kind of explaining why i am where i am at.
The crazy part here is i didn't get a chance to vote in 2016. I moved from Oregon to Washington after buying property up here and was completely in the middle of remodel and move when the election happened. I was one of those "well Hillary is gonna win this anyway" type people so i have to admit i didn't push to find out how to do my absentee ballot during a move.
Point is when Trump was elected we watched 200K people protest just in Portland. Pussy hats everywhere. They converged on downtown like nothing we have seen ever in the city.
I decided to take a different path. I decided to give him a chance. I after all do agree with many of his talking points. I do support the right to bear arms. I support having strong borders. I support keeping our military strong. I support buying from American companies and building it here.
I don't agree with a number of other issues. I believe certain abortions should be allowed but it should not be used as birth control. I feel we should be working toward a greener world. I feel we should continue to curb our need for oil.

Trump almost immediately started doing things that didn't work out well. He has also done things that we were not sure of but have now found out have not worked out well. Then he shit on Veterans.

He lost my vote! He had a chance and he blew it plain and simple.

kjironman1 · Nov 1, 2020

SlyPokerDog said: ↑

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Certainly by January.....

BigGameDamian · Nov 1, 2020

BigGameDamian · Nov 1, 2020

kjironman1 · Nov 1, 2020

BigGameDamian said: ↑

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Tucker Carlson scraping the bottom of the barrel for guests?

crandc · Nov 1, 2020

kjironman1 said: ↑

Tucker Carlson scraping the bottom of the barrel for guests?
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Who?

MARIS61 · Nov 1, 2020

Chris Craig · Nov 1, 2020

BigGameDamian said: ↑

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This means Trump expects to lose

THE HCP · Nov 1, 2020

RR7 · Nov 1, 2020

Someone bought themselves some extra minutes at the internet Cafe in town I see

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Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

Road Ratt King of my own little world

stampedehero Make Your Day, a Doobies Day Staff Member Moderator

stampedehero Make Your Day, a Doobies Day Staff Member Moderator

wizenheimer Well-Known Member

EL PRESIDENTE Username Retired in Honor of Lanny.

UncleCliffy'sDaddy We're all Bozos on this bus.

BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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Haakzilla Well-Known Member

kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

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MARIS61 Real American

Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

RR7 Well-Known Member

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Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

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Road Ratt King of my own little world

stampedehero Make Your Day, a Doobies Day Staff Member Moderator

stampedehero Make Your Day, a Doobies Day Staff Member Moderator

wizenheimer Well-Known Member

EL PRESIDENTE Username Retired in Honor of Lanny.

UncleCliffy'sDaddy We're all Bozos on this bus.

BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

Haakzilla Well-Known Member

kjironman1 Well-Known Member

kjironman1 Well-Known Member

BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

BigGameDamian Well-Known Member

kjironman1 Well-Known Member

crandc Well-Known Member

MARIS61 Real American

Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

RR7 Well-Known Member

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