Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

the state of play in Georgia:



the margin is all the way down to 57,000 votes

there seems to be a lot of confusion about how many ballots are left to count. If you go by the numbers above, there are around 500,000 votes left. But reports are there are only around 200K left. Most of those votes are in and around the cities of Atlanta, Savannah, Augusta, Macon, and Columbus as well as Daugherty County. These areas have been coming in heavily in favor of Biden. I think it's a bit of a tall order for Biden to pull ahead

Nate Silver: wrote a little about it:

" Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That gap seems like a tall order for Biden to close, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Toss-up, but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick."

it's over for the orange buffoon if Biden wins here

 

Don't forget to count those overseas votes.

Star-Spangled Banners transform Adelaide pub where expats gather to watch US election

 

Back in 1988 George H. Bush said in a speech "Read My Lips . No New Taxes". He actually tried but in the end ended imposing tax additions because of a compromise to pass a budget.

He was absolutely destroyed for this.

Can you even begin to think if Trump was being held to this standard today where we would be? It's like a whole bunch of people really would vote for him if he did a line of coke and shot someone in Times Square.
I can hear Sean Hannity spin it now. "He was acting in self defense and the man was who sold him the drugs so actually he was cleaning up the streets"

 

what do you mean by this exactly?

 

If that happens again,let them know that crazy yank "riverman" is a fan and thank them!

 

They try but the guys doing the shooting wear badges and when they go to court the charges are for endangerment instead of Murder.

 

The state of play in Pennsylvania:



at one time last night, when I was most depressed, trump's lead was over 700K. It's now down to 265,000. If all those numbers are accurate above, then there are still 1 million votes left, and reportedly, they are all absentee

to this point, this is how Biden has been performing in absentee ballots:



again, if everything is approximately accurate so far, and the absentee ratio stayed the same, Biden would have a 570,000 vote advantage in the remaining vote. Substantial win. Somehow, I just don't think it will be that easy...at all, and those numbers may all be off enough to invalidate all the assumptions

Nate Silver's take:

" Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden."

I still think the odds are less than 50-50, but it would be great if Biden can win one of Penn. or Georgia. Winning both is a tall order, but would be a big fuck you to trump

 

just normal things in a normal country

 

theyre stalling for time because the fake ballots they ordered from china haven't arrived yet. but once they do, it's anarcho-bidenism baby

 

I said it in the middle of the night: Nevada really know how to drum up betting action for their casinos and bookmakers

 

“We went from picking cotton to picking presidents”

 

People that can work effectively after smoking a bowl of sticky bud.

 

Not a good argument. Do the math.

 

I think you'd like the far left then, friend.

 

Well, Nate Silver has been like the northern star of accuracy when it comes to this election, so...

"here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast)."

But, yeah, I think Biden ends up getting Pennsylvania.

 

Nate Silver needs a better algorithm.

Regarding Pennsylvania, there's ~850k votes left to be counted, with a gap of ~220k to make up.