Every single one of Neil's second round picks is still in the NBA and received a second contract. 2012- 40. Will Barton 2013- 31. Allen Crabbe 2015- 41. Pat Connaughton 2016 - 47. Jake Layman 2018- 37. Gary Trent Jr. Every. Single. One. Hit rate of 100% Elleby it is.
I understand, however.... His soph year was much worse than his freshman year, so he's trending down. He shot under 40% last year, which is NOT efficient. He did shoot 37% from 3, but even that was down from his freshman year. There could be some reason for this slippage that Neil knows, and we (and ESPN) don't. But, until I hear what that reason is, I'll likely remain concerned. ESPN has him ranked as the 20th best SG in the draft, and we drafted him a couple of spots ahead of ESPN's 9th best SG. So, there is concern, and that's probably why all of the downer videos. I am ready and willing to change my mind about this, but I'll need some evidence, and there's no summer league this year, so I don't know where the evidence will even come from....
This guy is a 2nd round pick so either way, I am not too concerned. But all these guys are drafted on potential. Anthony Edwards's shooting percentage was only 40% as well and he went #1. They all need to improve. Maybe Neil sees a guy with a high BBIQ and who is willing to put in the work. But you are right we will not see anything from him this year. Hopefully, there is a summer league next year.
I have some concerns also but I think I better say that I was being kind of a smartass with my comment.
This is pretty impressive. But note that only one of them is on the Blazers. (Also: IS Crabbe still in the league?)
I've said it before, but Olshey's strategy for second rounders is different from his strategy for first rounders (which makes sense). When you're picking low, go for players who can do a bunch of things and seem to work well in a team. We'd never heard of Layman before we picked him, but he was solid at a bunch of things. From what I gather about Elleby, he's a player that you can slot in in a bunch of places, which is what you want in a bench player.
I would argue that is by design. If you look at all these guys, they mostly follow this pattern: Year 1 - 2: Sitting on the bench, Year 3: Rotation guy The total contract amount for 3 years of a second-round pick is ~3 million dollars, so you're looking at getting a rotation guy for one year at ~3 million. That's a pretty good investment, especially considering how easily seconds can be gotten. The two guys that Olshey really targeted (as in, he moved 2 seconds for each of these guys) are Crabbe and Trent. Crabbe did play for the Blazers after his rookie contract, and Trent is trending in the right direction. I guess you can argue that matching Crabbe was a mistake, but still, he played well enough to get a huge deal from some other team, so the talent evaluation was pretty spot on.
Also re: Crabbe, he's been injured A LOT since being traded from us. Averaging 51 games in the last 3 seasons, so not all of that is on him.
Elleby as a rookie doesn't play shy like Crabbe and Connaughton. His style has a spot-up wild side like Barton, but he sticks to the game plan like Layman. I predict he'll rank 1 or 2 on that list, with Barton.