What did we learn from pre-season?

Answer this then...

The Lakers had the #2 pick 3 years in a row and don't have a lot to show for it (I know it's still early), would you rather find some diamonds in the rough like Hart and Kuzma while somewhat blowing your top pick or hit a home run with your top pick and not do as well with the later picks?

 

It’s why I liked the Simons pick. Lakers were going to take him.

But seriously, Olshey tends to play it safe, and that extends to the draft. The four year seniors. The tournament production, etc. I was pleasantly surprised when he took Simons, because it went against that philosophy. Take the upside. I think if you go back and listen to his comments after he selected Simons, you’ll hear him pretty much admit to making a mistake with Swanigan. “At that point in the draft you’re looking for the biggest upside.” That might not be verbatim what he said, but it’s close.

 

Kuzma is a poor man's Carmelo. That's a steal where he was taken, but I'd rather have Jordan Bell.

 

Because the draft is a complete crap shoot.

 

What did we learn? That nobody got injured. Thats about all you can take from preseason. Not just ours, but anybody else’s as well.

 

That's a complete cop out.

The draft is not some random game of chance. It's more a game of probability (think poker instead of roulette or craps).

Good/great teams have a long history of drafting well. It's because they have a system down to dramatically increase the likelihood of success.

It's not because they are 'lucky', they are just better at getting in a position to get the guy with the highest potential for success.

 

I’m sorry sir, but that is EXACTLY what it is.

 

Phooey. Do you think the SA front office considers the draft a random event? When they were lucky enough to have high picks they went for Robinson and Duncan - not someone like Oden. When they plucked players from Europe, they got Parker and Gino - not Claver, Batum, Rudy, etc.

 

Minor quibble, but SAS wanted Batum with the 26th pick. That's why POR traded up from 27th to 25th to get him.

BNM

 

You see I said we should draft Jordan Bell. And I got slammed down for it n here. One person even said, because Jordan didn't box out on one play against North Carolina, he wasn't worth the risk?! So I didn't even mention Dillon Brooks, who would have been a great wing for us.

 

Good catch. I forgot about that.

 

To @HCP 's point I do think that there is some luck involved with both what year you are drafting in because of the players available that year and also what players are picked ahead of you. For example, if the Spurs would've got the #1 pick in 96 or 98 instead of 97 they would have ended up with Iverson/Camby or Olowakandi/Bibby and wouldn't likely have ever won a title. If the ping pong balls (or was it still a frozen envelope back then) bounce differently in 97 they would've gotten Van Horn, Billups, Daniels, or Battle once again completely changing history. Also, if Indiana doesn't trade them the 15th pick for George Hill or if Kawhi gets chosen before 15 then they don't win their most recent one either. The Spurs had plenty of draft misses thrown in there.

A player being drafted could also change once he makes the NBA now that he's made it, or get injured, or develop an alcohol problem, whatever. There is a bit of luck involved otherwise a guy like Jimmy Butler wouldn't be picked 30th. The 2017 draft was pretty loaded compared to some of the previous years as well so it was a good draft to have multiple picks in, at least theoretically. The situation also plays a huge role. Dillon Brooks got to play a ton last year because of all the injuries on Memphis. What would we be saying about him if he barely played on this team last year and then had a bad preseason? It would probably be similar to what we are saying about Swanigan. The same thing could be said about Mitchell if he was picked over Collins. He certainly wouldn't have had the same success he had in Utah based on the fact he wouldn't have gotten the same minutes.

As far as actually choosing good players though that is a skill. I like @tester551's poker analogy. You can make all the right moves and get your money in the pot with a high chance of winning and still someone could pull a two outer on the river or something. No one is perfect and makes the right decisions 100% of the time. I wish we could know what Olshey was really thinking at the time of the Swanigan pick (which I was fine with at the time, although I was kind of hoping for Semi Ojeleye myself). Since Swanigan was from Purdue and Paul George hadn't been traded yet maybe there was some posturing that Indiana was interested in Swanigan and that avenue wasn't completely closed off yet. Maybe he just simply thought Swanigan was going to be good. It has only been a year and he's only 7 months older that Collins. I'm not trying to start that debate again, I just find it weird that he is completely written off at 21 which used to be unheard for bigs. I know, I know he's unathletic.

I'll tell you what though, hitting on a later pick can really change the fate of a franchise though.

 

Evan Turnover. Nice.

 

Here are our 2020 preseason stats:

 

Hard to pick an area we don't suck at. Good thing it's just preseason, amirite????

It's looking like we should've traded Gary when we had the chance. And it's looking like Elleby was drafted right where he deserved. A very poor man's Evan Turner.

 

I think the consensus around here is that we learned that Harry Giles is the best player on the team, that we will play at the same defensive level all regular season as we did with less than a dozen days on the court as a team, and we will obviously struggle just to make the playoffs... or we learned next to nothing because the preseason rarely tells you anything and it tells you even less this year with the abbreviated training camp.

 

we learned that zombie threads suck... and so does are 3 point defense.