Game Thread GAME# 48: BUCKS @ BLAZERS - APRIL 2, 2021 - FRIDAY, 7:00, NBATV & NBCSNW

it might be reasonable, but while I think breaking things into components may work for discussing talent comparisons, it may also be a really flawed way to evaluate rosters

if you assume the Bucks top-3 is Giannis-Middleton-Holiday and Portland's is Dame-CJ-RoCo, you're probably assigning the correct 'ranking' for each team. But there is a huge advantage for the Buck trio your component breakdown misses, IMO. That being that all three Bucks players are quality two way players. Only one of Portland's is. Dame and CJ will NEVER be close to Holiday/Midleton on defense. Not even with Thibodeau coaching them

and that 3 on 3 comparison illustrates why Milwaukee is a contender and Portland isn't. The Bucks have a net differential of +6.4, ranking 3rd in the league. The Blazers have a net of -0.6, ranking 18th. The Bucks are top-8 on both ends of the floor. Milwaukee has actually underachieved their expected record by 2 wins; the Blazers have overachieved by 6 wins, and we know that is basically due to Dame's clutch time heroics.

in other words, even if the individual talent on the two team is close to even (debatable), the overall equation of roster talent tilts heavily in favor of the Bucks because there are two ends of the floor

 

sounds like the sorority my girl friend was in. She was only my GF for two dates; never figured out what I did wrong

 

This isn't ranking the rosters, but it provides projections.

https://www.google.com/search?q=2020 nba preseason predictions&rlz=1CAOTWH_enUS796US796&oq=202&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j69i57j69i59l2j69i61j69i60l2j69i65.809j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

I agree with you that our average players are slightly better than their average players and we might have a greater quantity of those players. Unfortunately, I think the is a strong trend that would back up that superstars are what differentiate teams, not their 9th man on the bench. We have a very very very good #1, but he's not going to be good enough to win without a legit two way type all-star. Giannis is 7'0", amazing two way MVP player and Middleton has nice length and two way abilities. Stack that up against 6'1", and 6'3" one way offensive players (our best players) and I feel we're at a major disadvantage. We're a full step below the legit teams in this league.

Having said all that, I'm not angry about it. I've just set my expectations accordingly so I'm not banging my head against the wall wondering why we're probably not winning a playoff series.

 

Eh, disagree on a couple of points. First, the Blazers didn't lose last night because the Bucks had quality two-way players. The Blazers lost because they missed wide-open shots that the "great" Bucks defense couldn't seem to defend.

Second, aside from Giannis, the Blazers have possibly the next four or five shot-creators on the two teams. I don't think of Middleton and Jrue as guys that are creating shots for themselves. They are guys who make shots when they've gotten open or gotten mismatches, but these aren't guys that are going to have a ton of success as a No. 1 option on a team. CJ can defeat elite man-to-man defense. Melo can defeat elite man-to-man defense. Nurk and Norman Powell -- one's a guy that can get you 20-20, the other's a guy that can score 40.

So, yes, the Bucks might be better defensively for a number of reasons. That doesn't make the Bucks better if the Blazers can counter that with players who are just as much better on offense.

 

My condolences, Mr. President.

 

The Bucks' playoff success in a much less competitive conference says hello.

Seriously, I'm not sure why you are so dogged in your inflexibility on this point that you're pulling out minutiae to try to explain its rightness. I didn't think it would be that hard to say "You know, I still think the Bucks are a better team, but you make a valid point and it's probably closer than I originally presented it." The very fact that you're going on a deep dive to defend your position should be enough proof to you that there's not really a whole lot of separation between the teams.

Just look at the Bucks schedule this season if you don't believe me. There are a lot of losses to bad teams on it. There aren't a lot of wins over the top teams. The lost back-to-back home games in mid-February to the Raptors by double digits, even with Giannis averaging almost 30 ppg. Game before that, he had a triple-double in a loss to OKC. If we're a full-step below the legit teams, the Bucks are at least 9/10s of a step below them.

 

I didn't intend to go on a deep dive, but it appears some people need more and more data to have an open mind. To me, it's not that close.

The schedule is an interesting notion. Many on here point to our record as a symptom of our very easy schedule, but it sounds to me that you don't agree with those people? You think we have a more difficult schedule and therefore that means our record is even more impressive than some are giving it credit for?

Maybe this will make you feel better: I do not think the Bucks are 25+ wins better than the Blazers. I don't think we're comparing the 98 Bulls with the 2010 Bobcats. I do side with the overwhelming majority of of NBA writers and Las Vegas that the Bucks are the superior team, and I'm kinda shocked that this is considered a bold take.

It doesn't appear I've changed your mind, but I won't say you're dogged in your inflexible because of that. I have told you I agree with some things you've said and I told you I respect your opinion. What more would you like me to say to acknowledge that you've presented a solid case, just not one I agree with? I do appreciate your opinion.

 

we may have different definitions of shot creation.

both CJ and Middleton have about the same assist rate; and both of them create about 58% of their own shots themselves. Middleton is better at it though because his TS% is .603 this year, while CJ's is .577. That's not a 1-year thing either because Middleton has a significantly higher career TS% than CJ

Holiday is also at the same level this season as Middleton and CJ in assist rate, although his career rate is over 30%. This season, he's creating 56% of his own shots, almost the same as the 58% of Midds and CJ. But his TS% is 20 percentage points better than CJ

so in terms of shot creation, the ranking sure appears to be 1) Giannis; 2) Dame, 3) Middleton, 4) Holiday, 5) CJ

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as far as Melo, his TS% is .530, while Portland's team mark is .574. His points/shot mark is 1.18 while the team's is 1.27. So, Melo is creating shots at a much less efficient rate than the team he plays for. I guess you can expect that a player's efficiency would drop a little when they were in iso, but I don't think Melo's shot creation is much of a plus, especially considering how motionless the Blazer offense becomes when Melo is doing his 'back-down-dribble-festival'

 

To me, a shot creator is a guy with a ball in his hands and no advantage can create space to manufacture a decent open look in his own. Right or wrong, you can throw all the analytics at me that you want, I can tell with my own eyes if a guy is able to create space for himself and break someone down with the dribble or not. You can disagree with me, but I think CJ would be much more effective as a No. 1 option than Middleton.

I don't think true shooting percentage is a stat that effectively measures what I consider shot creation.

 

Your more and more data, IMO, is just proving my point, tbh.

Many on here? Again, what is this deal with you that my viewpoint has to be aligned with other fans to be valid? No offense to any of them, but I can reason for myself, Tince. I don't need opinion polls involving people whose background I don't know to tell me what I should think.

This is the second time you've stated something about this overwhelming majority of NBA writers without producing anything to support it, as if you're saying it wills it into existence. It also doesn't have anything to do with your initial contention that the Bucks are clearly the better team. I've said from the beginning the Bucks might be better, but it isn't cut and dried. It just seems like you're moving goalposts. Maybe I'm misinterpreting something.

Neither of us have to change the other's mind, and I don't think either of us is going to. All I'm saying is on paper and in performance, these teams are on a par in quality. I think if you put the Blazers in the East with the Bucks or the Bucks in the West with the Blazers and they played identical schedules, their record would be pretty close. Obviously not a 25-game difference, or even a 10-game difference. I'd be surprised if it even was a 5-game difference. It's probably more or 2 or 3 games and I wouldn't be surprised if either one finished on top between the two.

 

Beat Dallas twice. Beat Sixers twice. So 5 at least.

 

Huh? This is who he is? He averaged 17/10 last year. He’s the only player who has ever gotten a 20/20 5 x 5. Let him work back into shape.

 

We started the season last year 2-1 with Zach starting. Then we went 6-2 in the bubble with him. He then got hurt and we lost in 5. We are a better team with Zach. He is very much a part of this team. He may be back next month.

 

I don't like putting things on Stotts that aren't his fault. Like roster construction or the fact that he shouldn't have even been here for the last five or six years to even criticize but Stotts has said it himself that he gives guys the green light to do what they do and doesn't believe in accountability. If Nurk was sat down every time he passed up an easy dunk for one of his bullshit weakass flip attempts and when he got sat he was told, you dunk that next time or you're sitting again. The guy would become a dominant scorer in this league. So yeah, this one goes on Stotts for again failing to coach his guys in any meaningful way. You might think that shit doesn't work in the NBA but I guarantee you it would with Nurk.

 

Sample size and spurious correlation.

 

So DJJ was injured last night? Was wondering why he never got back in there?

 

Was having one good year before his leg snapped.

 

he keeps saying that same stuff about Zach and last season's record. I've tried to get him to understand he's drawing a correlation that DOES NOT EXIST, but no luck penetrating the sunshine

the correlation doesn't match. Zach ranked 12th on the Blazers in PER; 11th in TS%, 11th in offensive rating; 13th in defensive rating; 11th in winshares/48; and 11th in BPM. Zach could not have been out of the top-10 on the team in every stat that measures impact and efficiency and still have had anything to do with that 8-3 record when he was limping confusedly around the court

 

Good debate. We clearly see it differently and I think we're starting to disagree with each others statements more and more, not getting closer to middle ground.

I hope you're correct and this team proves to be on Milwaukee's level, I would be thrilled.

 

That’s ridiculous. Nurk is a grown man professional basketball player. You don’t “punish” him for making a bad play. This isn’t high school.