SIAP- What are the chances that we keep Powell?

I refer to him as a Power Guard

 

Unfortunately, I think CJ is in this category as well. That said, I think it might be worth trading CJ for a talent downgrade (in a vacuum) for a better positional fit.

 

I am not sure how that would benefit us unless someone is way under the salary cap and could absorb his contract. A downgrade with an equally big contact is not appealing to me. I guess if that player was a better PF than any we will have next year then it would be worth it. But I would prefer to sign NP and see how it works next year before the trade deadline with Little backing up NP and Collins backing up RoCo. I like having the depth at guard in case a player gets injured.

 

Why do you think we'll be in the repeater tax in two years when we avoided the tax this year ro avoid being in repeater territory? Am I missing something?

 

Expiring contracts dont have negative value.

 

I think it's pretty obvious if Powell would like to come back he will match any contract he gets. If Olshey is still here (likely) his MO would be something along the lines of re-signing Powell to whatever his market value is, playing the first half of the season and if we aren't a top team trading CJ/Powell for a different piece.

Avoiding the luxury tax pushed back the repeater tax penalty so I'm assuming they are planning to push over the LT for the next few years (regardless of if it's Powell or whoever he/CJ get traded for).

Powell is not walking away for free unless he absolutely hated his time here which I don't think happens.

 

they would be paying repeater tax in 2022-23 if they went over the tax line next season and stayed there the following season. And, re-signing Powell to a 20M/year deal would just about guarantee both years in the tax without some major uneven trade in Portland's financial favor

of course, they could just let RoCo and Nurkic walk away next summer...that might get them out of the tax the following season

 

They can in comparison to cap space this summer or other expiring contracts.

 

This might be a fun exercise. I think the Blazers could go a couple directions with a CJ trade if they decide to make the move (assuming the near-star for star/near-star trade is off the table):

1. Trade him for a lesser player on a smaller contract that is perhaps a better fit to a team that wants to contend sooner and could absorb at least part of the contract difference without excess filler. Player/Team examples: Harrison Barnes/Buddy Hield-Kings, Jerami Grant-Pistons, DeRozan-Spurs (sign-and-trade), Gallinari/Bogdanovic-Hawks, Wood-Rockets, etc.
2. Trade for a perhaps slightly lesser player whose position and/or strengths and weaknesses are less overlapping with Dame. Player/Team Examples: Hayward-Hornets, Lavert/Sabonis/Brogdon-Pacers, Harris-Sixers, etc.
3. Trade CJ for a potpourri of above-average role players. Player/Team Examples: Kyle Anderson/Brandon Clarke/De'Anthony Melton-Grizzlies, Dejounte Murray/Keldon Johnson/Lonnie Walker-Spurs, Smart/Thompson/Langford-Celtics

I don't think the shoot-for-the-moon ideas (Beal, Simmons, Jaylen Brown, and Middleton are in this category) are particularly realistic, even if the Sixers and Bucks flame out quickly in the playoffs. Even if those teams were interested in the premise (a big assumption!), we'd have to add significant sweetener, and I don't think mid-to-late first round picks are all that appealing to those teams.

Let it be noted that I'm not necessarily advocating for any of the above ideas, but I do think Blazers fans need to be realistic about CJ's value. It's unclear if he can be a #2 on a contender, he's paid well for his talents (if not overpaid), and he'll be on the wrong side of 30. I wouldn't at all be surprised if Neil (or whoever is GM) does in fact test the CJ waters this summer, and I'd be equally unsurprised if he doesn't really like what he sees.

 

This might be a damned if you do, damned if you don't scenario. Even if one doesn't like Powell (and who wouldn't???) you absolutely need to keep him as an asset (assuming a sign-and-trade isn't possible). If the Blazers let Powell go for nothing, you might as well blow it up as it'd be admitting to Dame that finances take precedent over competing for a title. I certainly wouldn't blame Jody for this decision... as it is a hell of lot of money. That said, I think you try to keep the asset now, and at the very least, push the decision down the road to buy some time.

 

Or they could trade Powell (or CJ for that matter) in 2022 as well. I vote to re-sign him as long as the salary is tradable in the future. The more assets the better. This is not an Allen Crabbe scenario if we can keep NP for around 20 million

 

yeah, I think too many of these trade ideas significantly overrate CJ's value around the league. He's not going to bring back a return like Simmons or Siakam or KAT. Not a chance.

this is a situation kind of similar to the Curry/Monta Ellis conundrum the Warriors faced...and had the balls to address. Curry and Ellis stepped on each other as much as Dame & CJ do. The Warriors just didn't have as stubborn a GM. Plus, they had the luxury of a SG replacement on the bench in Klay. Portland hasn't had that luxury until they added Powell

so if Portland actually shops CJ, as they should, they can't get locked into first, overrating CJ, and 2nd, demanding an equal or better player in return. And, they have to look at what the result would be keeping in mind they could be moving Powell into CJ's slot. For instance, and this is just an example, where would Portland be if they had traded CJ for Aaron Gordon, 15M in cap relief, and Orlando's 1st round pick, or at at least a pick swap? I'm not saying either team would have done that trade; just suggesting that Dame-Powell-RoCo-Gordon-Nurkic + cap relief + a lottery pick leaves Portland in a situation arguably better than they will be. So then plug in a player like Grant or Lavert and that might even be better

I really suspect that's all Olshey's plan is right now. Stubbornly cling to his all-in investment of the Dame/CJ back court for one more season, bring the gang back, including Powell (and hope Jones opts out), and see if the Blazers can squeeze out healthy seasons for Nurkic & Zach (unlikely?), and see if finally, the team actually looks like a contender rather than a 7th year pretender. Pay tax one more season for a long shot at a title. Then tear things down in 2022, regardless of result, and avoid the repeater tax

I think Olshey wants to punt all hard decisions another year down the road (except for maybe Stotts) which would allow him to collect another 7M in salary for avoiding the hard decisions

 

read my post above....I think something like that is the plan, although I don't give Olshey credit for much of a plan. It's the 'punt-hard-decisions-another-year-down-the-road-while-I-collect-salary' plan

I'm assuming he has tentatively talked Seattle into approving to pay tax next year for one last shot with his Dame/CJ dream. And part of the agreement is that Portland would not pay repeater tax the following season

I'm not sure what Seattle's response will be though if Portland exits the playoffs with another 1st round whimper. I'm sure Olshey is holding the Stotts scalp in reserve hoping that would be enough high level blood to satisfy the Vulcans. It shouldn't be though

 

Just curious how you rate Siakam in there?

 

Good question. He'd be in the unrealistic pipedream category for me as I think Toronto is hoping to build around their young nucleus (hence the Trent trade). Siakam is three years younger, is better and more versatile defensively, and has at least the illusion of untapped upside or consistency. Toronto obtaining CJ would be like them trying to build a worse version of the Blazers in the East. I'd love a CJ-Siakam swap, and I'm not sure Toronto is necessarily in love Siakam as a player or personality, but I don't think CJ is the type of player they'd be interested in should they choose to find a replacement.

 

The way Randle has been playing Im not sure they would trade him for CJ?

 

Yeah, I'd love that type of swap. Given that Randle is four years younger and coming into his prime, costs ten million dollars less, and is the harder to find commodity in today's NBA, I don't think New York would consider that trade even in Portland threw in multiple first round picks. Toronto would have to be highly tempted though, despite Randle's traditional defensive shortcomings (outside of Thibs' system).