Forum Game Down the stretch they go!

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by julius, Apr 26, 2021.

  1. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    true

    in fact, if you think about this 9-1 streak, they played Indiana without Sabonis/Turner; Brooklyn without Durant/Harden; Lakers without Lebron/Shroder; Jazz without Mitchell/Conley

    now, before people jump on me for saying that, I'm not saying it to dismiss what Portland has done. I'm pointing to the fact that a primary ingredient for a post-season run is to be healthy at the end of the season. Better to be healthy in May/June than in Jan/Feb. Portland is...other teams aren't

    the stars could be aligning in the Blazer sky: they have everyone healthy and they are in a groove on both ends of the floor. Meanwhile most other WC playoff teams are not healthy. The Nuggets are without Murray and have questions about the health of Barton/Dozier/Morris; The Jazz have the questionable health of their starting back court; Lakers look like a potential playoff no-show with questions about Lebron and AD; Suns are missing Johnson/Nader.

    I'm usually a skeptic about Portland's chances, but they sure appear to have a path to a good playoff run, especially if they can avoid the Clippers till the conference finals. A lot hinges on this Phoenix game though
     
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  2. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    upload_2021-5-13_10-33-56.png

    The Blazers are a season-high 12 games over 500. That's 9 games ahead of last year's pace.

    I want to see that line tick up a couple more notches before the end of the regular season!
     
  3. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I think the 2018-19 Blazer team is a much better comp for this year's team. That team was 16 games over .500 at 7o games in. And they finished 24 games over .500 with a .646 winning percentage (best this year's team can do is .597). And, much like this year's team they were hot late in the season going 10-2 over the last 12 games (and 14-3 over the last 17). That team made it to the WC finals so hopefully, the similarities to this year's team continue
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2021
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  4. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    speaking of "down the stretch", there's been a lot of chatter here about how the Blazers always seem to go on a late season run in the Dame/CJ era. So, I thought I'd refresh my memory:

    * 2015-16: Finished 44-38; went 9-4 over their last 13 games (a 14-2 stretch in Jan/Feb); 5-6 in playoffs

    * 2016-17: Finished 41-41; went 12-4 over their last 16 games; 0-4 in playoffs

    * 2017-18 Finished 49-33; had a 13 game winning streak, but then closed the season 5-7; 0-4 in playoffs (the Pelicans series)

    * 2018-19: Finished 53-29; went 14-3 over their last 17 games; 8-8 in playoffs while gaining WCF

    * 2019-20: Finished 36-39 (includes play-in); went 8-2 over their last 10 games; 1-4 in playoffs

    so yes, Blazers have closed the season with hot streaks in 4 of 5 seasons. The one exception was in 2017-18 when they closed with a 5-7 record and promptly afterward, created their 6-year low-point by getting swept by the Pels

    in the other 4 seasons, Portland was hot at the end of the season, but that hasn't been a good predictor of what happens in the playoffs
     
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  5. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    This year will be different. I can feel it!

    upload_2021-5-13_12-17-8.png
     
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  6. KSF-ERIC

    KSF-ERIC Well-Known Member

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    Close. 10-2. I picked 8-2 for final 10 games and nailed it. Everybody in this thread was being “realistic” when I, in fact, was the one who was realistic. Enough is Enough!!!
     
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  7. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Who do we play?
     
  8. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    Denver
     
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  9. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    here's some more realism: Portland had to win their last game to avoid the Play-In
     
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  10. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    To be fair, that's about the position this roster, given the injuries, should have been expected to be in all along. Thinking top 4 would've been way over the top.
     
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  11. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    yeah, that's fair. But I was reacting to somebody trashing people for predictions of the last dozen games and claiming a prediction of a winning streak was realistic. Portland was 10-2 over the last dozen games. But coming into today's must win game, they were 11-11 over the last 22. So, 2-9 over the last 11 games when the predictions were made
     
  12. KSF-ERIC

    KSF-ERIC Well-Known Member

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    I posted a song here when we had gone 2-9. “When the odds are sayin you’ll never win, that’s when the grin should start.” You can’t quit on your team cuz they have some adversity. We had started to play better and only lost to Clips and Nuggets by one point. 10-2 is the reality. If you said 4-8, you were being unrealistic.
     
  13. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    I clearly had the best prediction.
     
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  14. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    And that obviously shows you're a truer, better and more loyal fan than the rest of us. Wear it with pride, sly, it's like a brand new collar for a dog.
     
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  15. KSF-ERIC

    KSF-ERIC Well-Known Member

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    I made my prediction with 10 games left and said 8-2 so I had beat prediction.
     
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  16. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    You predicted the team would lose. In other words, you called our team losers!

    I'm the only one who called them the winners that they are!
     
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  17. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    I predicted with 14 games left...11-3 and the Blazers finished 10-4
     
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  18. julius

    julius I wonder if there's beer on the sun Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I retroactively made my prediction and I predicted they'd go 10-2!
     
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  19. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I don't recall if I said anything or made any prediction. Maybe, but not only don't I recall, I don't care

    but what happened couldn't be more obvious: Portland went 2-9 when Dame was having one of the worst stretches of his career. Then, in the 2nd Q of the Indiana game Dame asked to guard Brogdon, worked real hard, shut Brogdon down, and used that as a catalyst to not only turn around his season, but the Blazer season as well

    this has been another Dame-fueled late season hot streak where he puts the team on his shoulders and leads other players into playing better and with more cohesion. That's pretty apparent

    where it will lead, I don't know. I do know Portland could not have gotten a more favorable 1st round matchup than Denver. Blazers should be favored in that series for a variety of reasons
     
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  20. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    I'd say that there are several differences between this year's "hot streak" and years past that should bode well for the playoffs:

    1. The team has a better and more veteran roster than previous iterations.

    2. A big component of the "hot streak" was the change to playing better defense. The Blazers not only raised their defensive rating from the cellar of the league to middle of the pack for the past 10 to 11 games, they did it against opponents who were largely playoff teams.

    3. Unlike previous versions, where we've seen Dame go supernova and produce games of 50 or more points, the scoring load has been much more evenly distributed. Yes, Dame has raised his output, but so have CJ, Norm and Nurk.

    4. Probably most importantly, the produce of the "hot streak" is achieving the 6th seed and avoiding the play-in games. That means a week of rest and practice leading into the the playoffs instead of showing up exhausted.
     

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