Looooool Missing 1 rotation player is not nearly the same as missing 3? rotation players. (Murray, Barton, Dozier) And the 1 player we’re missing can’t stay out of foul trouble I’m sure Zach Collins means more to this team than Jamal Murray. Get real. Imagine the Blazers were missing CJ McCollum (Murray), Norm Powell (Barton), and Simons and the Nuggets were missing Aaron Gordon... and the Blazers managed to win that series. Malone should get canned faster than a rabbit can hump. Now if we play a mostly healthy Suns team or possibly even Lakers and win, then sure, that should impact Stotts job status. But beating the Nuggets missing half their rotation.. uh, no.
Neither Murray or Collins are All Stars but Collins is more valuable since we need his help to guard Jokic. He is much better than Kanter. Meanwhile, Austin Rivers making up for Murray’s production so they’re not really missing anything.
Underdogs in Games 1 & 2 Favorites in Games 3 & 4 Currently 1.5 underdog in Game 5 Not saying it's a big number, but a team that is easily superior in talent would almost always be the favorite, even on the road.
Because we finally pressured them on defense and more importantly pressured them on offense. How many times have we seen the Blazers do this in the last five years? I have come to the conclusion Stotts has been holding this team back. Who's with me?!!!
Haha, alright. Austin Rivers is averaging 11/3/2, greatly aided by his 20+ point effort in one game. Jamal Murray (in playoffs) was averaging 25/4/6 (over 3 series in 2020). Or you can look at his stats against Portland when he was younger and worse. Aside from being a much better player and much closer to an all star than ZCo will ever be, Murray is way more valuable because they wouldn’t be starting Facu and Austin Rivers. This would impact A) The Nuggets bench but B) also force Dame and CJ to guard an actual NBA starting caliber guard. Also, you’re comparing Zco to Murray... Not ZCo to Murray, Dozier and Barton. So you wouldn’t trade ZCo for Murray, Dozier and Barton because he’s just that good? remind me the last time ZCo dropped 50
Do you bet often? Because this is not true. Denver has one of the *best* HCA in all of sports. Typically they’re awarded between 5-7 points for HCA. Additionally, in betting basketball being a 1 point favorite is essentially a “pick em.” Also, despite being a “1 point favorite” the betting odds were in favor of the Blazers (-105, bet 100 to win 105) vs (-115, bet $100 to win $115, higher payout because although a slight favorite, books thought they’d lose) All this essentially means the books think we are between 6 and 9 points better than the Nuggets, adjusting for HCA. also coincides with us being a 8point favorite at home at one point. now tonight the Nuggets are favored per the money line, +110 blazers -130 Nuggets. And the game 1 line was the most important because that is what people thought heading into the series, before adjustments and stuff actually played out in real time.
I want to know where you are getting your numbers because I want to bet there. The two books I've been using have had us as a 1-2 underdog in games 1,2, 5 and a 4-5 point favorite in games 3 & 4. It's hard for me to conclude that you can average that out to get us as an expected outcome of 9 points better than Denver. I would hammer a team that is 9 points better (nuteral site) but a road underdog given equal rest; would be a huge mistake by the sportsbook IMO. I agree with you that 1 point is close to a pick'em. I think I stated that Denver being favored by 1 wasn't a big number but it doesn't support a narrative that we are overwhelming favorites.
Game 1 Moneyline via BetMgM: https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports...nuggets-game-1-odds-picks-and-prediction/amp/ game 2 (1 pt favorites) BetMgM https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ac...ries-odds-nba-playoffs-schedule-round-1?amp=1 And like I said, you’re using the data AFTER the games have been played. Our last game against Denver we were 9 point favorites (at home.) Playoff game 1 was essentially a pick em and notice how you can’t dispute the moneyline paying out more favorably for the Nuggets (despite them being the “favorite”) Anyway, there is the data. Going into game 1 and game 2 we were favorites to win the series. Massively favored in the case of going into game 2. My apologies on this part; The books, going into the series, thought we would be a 9 point favorite at home. On the road it’s essentially a push. Thus, they think we are about 8 points better than the Nuggets given their usual HCA is between 6-9 points and we were a 1pt “dog”. At a neutral site yes we would be favored by 4-7 based on the data.
